Stage 4 of the Tour de France 2025 sets the stage for yet another fireworks-filled finale. Finishing in Rouen, this route mirrors the dynamism of Stage 2, where Mathieu van der Poel clinched a statement win. Once again, he lines up among the favourites, though he’s far from alone. The general classification (GC) titans—Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard—are looming, ready to turn any opportunity into a race-defining moment.
The day opens with flat terrain for over 100 kilometres, promising a high-speed, tightly controlled build-up. But don’t be fooled: the race’s back end is loaded with short, punchy ascents that are tailor-made for explosive moves and tactical ambushes. Four key climbs within the final 21 kilometres—particularly the 900-meter wall at over 10% gradient just five kilometres from the line—will rip the peloton apart.
The finale kicks off with a series of ramps: 1.3 km at 9.2% (28 km to go), followed by 900 m at 7%, 1.8 km at 4.8%, and finally, 800 m at a brutal 9.1%. Riders will be tested not just on physical strength but tactical sharpness. With a downhill run and a plateau after the final summit, attacks may launch not just on the climb but after it—an ideal setup for solo artists or late flyers to escape the clutches of a dwindling peloton.
Stage 4 Odds
🏆Best odds for betting on 2025 Tour de France available at Campeon Bet!🏆
| Who Will Win | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mathieu Van Der Poel – Yes | 2.49 |
| Tadej Pogacar – Yes | 3.38 |
| Jonas Vingegaard – Yes | 16.5 |
| Kevin Vauquelin – Yes | 16.5 |
| Romain Gregoire – Yes | 16.5 |
| Matteo Jorgenson – Yes | 19.5 |
| Wout Van Aert – Yes | 22 |
| Remco Evenepoel – Yes | 30 |
| Julian Alaphilippe – Yes | 38 |
| Biniam Girmay – Yes | 46 |
| Oscar Onley – Yes | 46 |
| Axel Laurance – Yes | 46 |
| Thibau Nys – Yes | 55 |
| Primoz Roglic – Yes | 60 |
| Jhonatan Narvaez – Yes | 65 |
| Neilson Powless – Yes | 75 |
| Kaden Groves – Yes | 75 |
| Santiago Buitrago – Yes | 75 |
| Mattias Skjelmose Jensen – Yes | 75 |
| Florian Lipowitz – Yes | 75 |
| Ben Healy – Yes | 75 |
| Magnus Cort – Yes | 100 |
| Marc Hirschi – Yes | 100 |
Weather & Wind: Strategic Tension
Rain is a likely companion early on, drying out later, but wind will be the most disruptive force. With strong northwesterlies blowing across the first 100 km of open roads, crosswinds could create early splits. Expect aggressive racing and nervous bunching until the riders reach the relative shelter of Rouen’s urban layout. By then, the decisive action will already be underway.
Key Contenders to Watch
Mathieu van der Poel
Is he the man to beat? Based on Stage 2, the Dutchman is riding at a phenomenal level. Alpecin–Deceuninck may lack the firepower to control the finale, but van der Poel’s explosiveness and technical prowess on a finish like this make him a frontrunner. He’ll need to survive the steeper gradients—particularly if Pogacar attacks—but if it comes to a reduced sprint, he’s a dangerous man to bet against.
Tadej Pogacar
The World Champion has yet to unleash his signature attack. Does he not need to? Or is he biding his time? Stage 4 could provide a prime launchpad. Pogacar’s team—UAE Team Emirates—has the horsepower with riders like Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez to shape the finale. A well-timed burst could see him solo or in a select group to the line, particularly if he gets separation over the top of the final climb.
Jonas Vingegaard
Expect the defending champion to bide his time until after the final ascent, where his diesel engine can make a late surge count. If Visma | Lease a Bike goes aggressive—especially with Matteo Jorgenson—they could break things open. Look for bonus seconds and tactical positioning rather than an all-out win from the Dane, unless chaos erupts.
Dark Horses & Wildcards
Remco Evenepoel remains a wildcard for a long-range effort, while climbers like Santiago Buitrago, Primoz Roglic, and Mattias Skjelmose could shine in a disorganized finale. Julian Alaphilippe and Romain Grégoire have shown punch and sprint ability; they’re well-positioned for a top finish.
Classic outsiders like Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Neilson Powless, and Quentin Pacher could slip away if the GC teams hesitate. Meanwhile, sprinters with climbing legs—like Axel Laurance, Bryan Coquard, Wout van Aert, and Magnus Cort Nielsen—are on standby should the pace slightly ease near the summit.
The Expected Scenario
A sprint is unlikely—at least from a traditional sprinters’ group. The brutal gradients and technical descent will drop pure sprinters well before the finish. UAE and other GC teams may force the issue, setting a relentless tempo to reduce the group. In that scenario, only the strongest all-rounders and puncheurs will remain.
As the Tour heads deeper into the week, the GC narrative will tighten. Stage 4 is a perfect pressure point—a volatile mix of wind, climbs, and ambition. Whether it’s van der Poel’s power, Pogacar’s class, or a surprise solo hero, Rouen promises spectacle.
Don’t miss our live coverage and post-stage breakdown right here on TipsGG. Stage 4 is one for the tacticians and thrill-seekers alike.