Liam Duckstein
Olympiacos welcome NEC Nijmegen to the Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie. The Greeks carry clear home advantage and bookmaker backing, though their recent form is far from convincing. Mendilibar’s side has won just two of their last six matches, and a loss to AZ Alkmaar in their most recent outing will raise questions about defensive solidity heading into a high-stakes European night.
Two players to watch closely are Roman Yaremchuk, who led Olympiacos in shot attempts in their last match with three efforts, and Kostas Fortounis, the experienced midfielder who provides the creative link between the lines and racked up four free kicks in the same game. Nijmegen’s squad data for individual players is unavailable at this stage, so Dick Schreuder’s men carry a degree of mystery into this tie.
Hot stat: Olympiacos conceded in each of their last three matches, shipping seven goals across those games against AZ Alkmaar, Antwerp, and Ajax. Their backline has been leaking at an alarming rate heading into this qualifier.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Olympiacos vs Nijmegen prediction
Olympiacos are the logical pick to win this match at home, but the odds around 1.50-1.58 reflect a team that should be winning rather than one in dominant form. Their defensive record over the past month is a real concern, and Nijmegen, despite losing four of their last six, did manage to score seven goals against Al-Fayha and pushed Anderlecht before falling 3-2. They are not toothless.
We predict Olympiacos to win, but a clean sheet looks unlikely given how exposed their defense has been. The most attractive betting angle here is Both Teams to Score, with the Greek side vulnerable at the back and Nijmegen capable of finding the net against weaker opposition. Over 2.5 goals also carries value, as five of Olympiacos’s last six matches produced three or more goals combined.
Olympiacos commit fouls regularly, averaging 12 in their last recorded match, and their 15 free kicks conceded create set-piece danger for a Nijmegen side that runs a 4-2-3-1 structure built for width and transition. Olympiacos’s pass accuracy was modest in their last outing, suggesting they may struggle to control the tempo for extended periods. Nijmegen will look to press high and force errors.
On corners, Olympiacos managed only four in their last match, and with Nijmegen likely to sit deep at times, expect a moderate corner count rather than a high one. We lean toward under 10 corners for the match.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Both Teams to Score – Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 10 |
Team Analysis
Olympiacos have had a difficult stretch recently. They won only two of their last six matches, drawing one and losing three. Their most recent game was a 2-3 home defeat to AZ Alkmaar, a result that stings before a Champions League qualifier. Before that, they were beaten 0-3 by Antwerp and 0-1 by Ajax. The only bright spot in this run was a 3-1 win over Fortuna Sittard. Mendilibar’s side can score, as that Fortuna result shows, but their defensive organization has broken down repeatedly against technical European sides.
In their last match specifically, Olympiacos recorded 11 total shots but failed to score. Their 12 fouls and 15 free kicks conceded suggest a physical, reactive defensive approach that can be exploited by a side with good set-piece delivery. Santiago Hezze and Dani García anchor the midfield, but both gave the ball away multiple times in that AZ game.
Nijmegen arrive with their own inconsistency. They lost four of their last six games, including a 1-2 defeat to Sevilla in their most recent match and a surprising 0-1 loss to Elversberg. Their best result in this run was a commanding 7-0 win over Al-Fayha, which flatters their attacking numbers but came against very modest opposition. They also beat V-Varen Nagasaki 3-1 and pushed Anderlecht close in a 2-3 defeat. Dick Schreuder’s 4-2-3-1 system is designed to exploit space on the counter, and against an Olympiacos side that pushes forward at home, there will be space to find.
Nijmegen’s individual player stats are not available from their recent matches, which makes it harder to identify specific threats. What the results do tell us is that they are capable of scoring goals in bunches when the opposition is open, and they are not afraid of a physical contest.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides met once before, in a pre-season friendly in July 2024, with Olympiacos winning 2-0. The bookmakers at the time actually favored a draw at 41%, suggesting the result flattered the Greeks slightly in that context.
| Statistic | Olympiacos | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Olympiacos vs Nijmegen stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite
- Moneyline Olympiacos 1.55 | Nijmegen 5.50
- Draw 4.30
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds on Olympiacos around 1.50-1.58 are fair for a home side with European pedigree facing a Dutch club making their Champions League qualifying debut at this level. The draw at 4.30 is not unattractive given how unpredictable both sides have been, but we see Olympiacos getting over the line. Nijmegen at 5.50 represents a big price that reflects a realistic gap in quality, though their ability to score on the counter makes a Nijmegen goal very plausible even in defeat.
Nijmegen. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Olympiacos possible starting eleven
- GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
- DF: Pablo Maffeo, Lorenzo Pirola, Zinedin Smajlovic, Bruno Onyemaechi
- MF: Rodinei, Dani García, Santiago Hezze, Chiquinho, Kostas Fortounis
- FW: Ayoub El Kaabi
Olympiacos line up in a 4-4-2 or a compact 4-5-1 shape depending on the phase of play. Tzolakis takes the gloves after appearing in their most recent match. The back four picks itself based on recent appearances, with Pirola and Smajlovic as the central pairing. Fortounis operates as the creative hub from the right side of midfield and will be the key man for set pieces and link-up play. Yaremchuk leads the line and, with three shots in the last match, is the most likely source of goals. Rodinei provides width and attacking runs from the right back position, often overlapping to create numerical overloads.
Nijmegen possible starting eleven
Individual player data for Nijmegen is not available from their recent matches. Dick Schreuder is expected to set up in his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, prioritizing a double pivot in midfield to protect against Olympiacos’s direct play and leaving the number ten free to connect with the wide attackers on the counter.
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Olympiacos. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Olympiacos should win this first leg at the Karaiskakis, but the margin is unlikely to be comfortable. Their defense has shipped goals consistently over the past month, and Nijmegen have shown they can score when given space on the transition. The 61% win probability from bookmakers is about right, and we back that outcome.
We predict Olympiacos to win the match, but with Nijmegen finding the net at least once. The BTTS market is where the real value sits. Both teams have been inconsistent defensively, and the attacking intent from both sides, especially in a first-leg European qualifier where Nijmegen need an away goal, points toward a lively, open contest. Olympiacos 2-1 is our score prediction, with over 2.5 goals and BTTS as the recommended bets.
