Levi Rothermund
Dinamo Zagreb open their UEFA Champions League 2026/27 campaign at Stadion Maksimir against Lithuanian side Kauno Zalgiris in the Third Qualifying Round first leg. The Croatian champions enter as heavy favorites, and that status is well-earned, but Zalgiris arrive with something worth noting: they are unbeaten in their last seven matches, including a composed two-legged elimination of Klaksvik, and have not lost a single game in the past 30 days.
Dion Drena Beljo is the man to watch for Zagreb. The striker scored three goals in his last three appearances and leads the team in shots with 13 across those matches. For Zalgiris, midfielder Vykintas Slivka carries the attacking threat, having scored twice in the last three games despite limited statistical data available on his team’s overall output.
Hot stat: Dinamo Zagreb attempted 78 total shots across their last five matches. That is an average of nearly 16 shots per game, a volume that will put Zalgiris’s backline under serious pressure from the first whistle.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Zalgiris prediction
The bookmakers are almost unanimous here, pricing Zagreb at around 1.14-1.18 to win. We agree with that direction entirely. Zagreb’s domestic form is strong, they have won 23 of 33 matches this year, and their home record at Maksimir adds another layer of confidence. Zalgiris have been solid but they have been doing it against Lithuanian opposition and Klaksvik, clubs operating at a far lower level than a Croatian title-winning side with Champions League experience.
The most logical bet is a Dinamo Zagreb win with over 2.5 goals in the match. Zagreb averaged well over a goal per game in recent outings and their shot volume strongly suggests they will create enough to score at least twice. Zalgiris scored four goals in five recent matches and may find the net at least once given Zagreb’s occasional defensive looseness, seen in the 2-2 draw with Thun and the 4-2 win over Koper where they conceded.
Zagreb commit fouls regularly, averaging nearly eight yellow cards across five matches, and their 39 fouls show they press aggressively and get physical. Zalgiris, by contrast, appear disciplined with only four yellow cards in the same period. Zagreb’s higher foul rate means Zalgiris could benefit from set-piece situations, making corners and free kicks relevant for both teams’ attacking chances. Zagreb earned 30 corners in five matches, so expect corner markets to be active here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Dion Drena Beljo to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb have been in decent form leading into this tie. Their last five matches produced two wins, two draws, and one further win, with a 4-2 win over Koper being the most eye-catching result in that run. The 2-2 draw at home against Swiss side Thun in the Europa League playoff tie raised a few eyebrows, with Zagreb unable to close out a comfortable lead, but coach Mario Kovacevic will take confidence from the fact they scored in every single one of those five matches. The 0-0 draw against LNZ was the only blank in terms of goals conceded, showing they can be vulnerable when the game opens up.
Kauno Zalgiris have been quietly impressive. They beat Siauliai 4-0, edged Drita 3-2, and most importantly dealt with Klaksvik across two legs, winning the first 1-0 and drawing the second 0-0 to progress. Their last seven matches without a defeat is a legitimate run, not just padding against weak sides. Coach Zeljko Sopic has organised the team well, and their patience in tight matches was on display in both legs against Klaksvik. Still, the step up to face Zagreb at Maksimir is significant.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides met in the first leg of this same Third Qualifying Round tie, and that match ended 0-0.
| Statistic | Dinamo Zagreb | Kauno Zalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Zalgiris stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Dinamo Zagreb the favourite
- Moneyline Dinamo Zagreb 1.14-1.18 | Kauno Zalgiris 13.00-20.00
- Draw 6.50-7.95
- Over/Under Over 2.5 (check your preferred bookmaker) | Under 2.5 (check your preferred bookmaker)
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes (check your preferred bookmaker) | No (check your preferred bookmaker)
The Zagreb moneyline at 1.14-1.18 is tight but honest given the 81% win probability the market assigns them. The draw at 6.50-7.95 is unlikely given Zagreb’s home dominance and the attacking quality they have shown. Zalgiris at 13.00-20.00 to win reflects just how remote that outcome is. We think the better value play is not on the match result itself but on Beljo scoring or the over 2.5 goals market, where the odds should be more rewarding than a sub-1.20 Zagreb win.
Kauno Zalgiris. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Dinamo Zagreb possible starting eleven
- GK: Ivan Nevistić
- DF: Scott Mckenna, Sergi Dominguez, Matteo Perez Vinlöf, Moris Valincic
- MF: Josip Mišić, Miha Zajc, Gabriel Vidović, Mislav Oršić
- MF: Fran Topic
- FW: Dion Drena Beljo
Kovacevic has favoured a 4-1-4-1 shape and that fits the personnel available. Ivan Nevistić gets the nod in goal based on appearances. Mckenna and Dominguez anchor the central defence, with Perez Vinlöf and Valincic providing width. Zajc operates as the single pivot, collecting two yellow cards recently which is worth monitoring. Mišić and Vidović support through the middle, while Oršić and Topic provide creativity in wider areas. Beljo leads the line and is the player most likely to decide this tie, having scored three times in three matches.
Kauno Zalgiris possible starting eleven
- GK: Tomas Švedkauskas
- DF: Joris Moutachy, Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor, Aldayr Hernandez, Luka Racic
- MF: Franco Baldassarra, Amine Benchaib
- MF: Vykintas Slivka, Gratas Sirgedas
- FW: Renan Oliveira, Leon Krekovic
Sopic has deployed a 4-2-3-1 in recent matches, and this selection reflects that shape. Tomas Švedkauskas starts in goal, having appeared in three of the last five matches. Moutachy and Edokpolor are the regular starters in defence alongside Hernandez and Racic. Baldassarra and Benchaib form the double pivot, with Benchaib having contributed one goal and two assists recently. Slivka is the most dangerous player in this squad, scoring twice in three matches, and his ability to arrive late into the box makes him a threat even when Zalgiris are otherwise defending deep.
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Dinamo Zagreb. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This first leg at Maksimir should end in a Zagreb win. The 0-0 draw from the previous meeting is honestly a bit of an anomaly given Zagreb’s attacking output, and we expect them to correct that here on home soil. Beljo has been in the kind of form that makes him very hard to contain, and Zalgiris do not have the defensive depth to handle Zagreb’s shot volume across 90 minutes.
We think Zagreb win 2-0 or 3-1, with Beljo on the scoresheet. Zalgiris may nick a goal given Zagreb’s habit of conceding, and Slivka is capable of punishing any defensive switch-off. The over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes combination looks like the sharpest value in this match, and backing Beljo to score anytime adds an extra angle to the prediction.
