With less than a month until the Grand Départ in Lille on July 5, the final block of pre-Tour races — the Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse — are providing the last glimpses into the form of the GC contenders. At the centre of this narrative are Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel, locking horns for the first time since last year’s dramatic showdown in Paris.
As the Dauphiné ramps up, the early exchanges between the trio and their respective teams have laid down tantalizing markers. With recent headlines shaped by the Giro d’Italia, a reshuffled support cast, and mounting tension between UAE Team Emirates and Visma-Lease a Bike, the power dynamic in the peloton is shifting. Below is our latest ranking of the Tour de France favourites based on current form, fitness, and team structure.
Tour de France 2025 Odds
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| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | 1.37 |
| Jonas Vingegaard | 3.20 |
| Remco Evenepoel | 12.00 |
| João Almeida | 19.00 |
| Florian Lipowitz | 30.00 |
| Primož Roglič | 35.00 |
| Matteo Jorgenson | 50.00 |
| Richard Carapaz | 100.00 |
| Simon Yates | 100.00 |
| Felix Gall | 150.00 |
| Carlos Rodriguez Cano | 150.00 |
| Enric Mas Nicolau | 150.00 |
| Mattias Skjelmose Jensen | 150.00 |
| Ben O’Connor | 150.00 |
| Tobias Johannessen | 160.00 |
| Geraint Thomas | 200.00 |
| Lenny Martinez | 200.00 |
| Sepp Kuss | 200.00 |
| Adam Yates | 250.00 |
1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
The reigning champion enters July with a formidable palmarès: wins at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Tour of Flanders, and now an explosive stage victory at the Dauphiné. His late move to outgun Vingegaard and Van der Poel showed not just tactical sharpness, but a clear indication of peak form ahead of the Tour. With the Dauphiné yellow jersey already in hand, all eyes are on stage 7’s summit finish, where he’ll likely test his full mountain form.
2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
After a cautious return from injury, Vingegaard has looked sharp — second on stage 1 of the Dauphiné and confident in both form and support. Simon Yates, fresh off a Giro win, and a rejuvenated Wout van Aert will form a crucial support duo in the mountains. If Vingegaard’s body holds up, he’s the only rider with a recent history of beating Pogačar over three weeks.
3. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)
The Olympic champion is mounting a fierce return from early-season injuries. With a commanding TT win in Romandie and a defiant attack to match the top duo on stage 1 of the Dauphiné, Evenepoel is inching closer to the elite level. The loss of Mikel Landa may limit his mountain depth, but Evenepoel’s improving form — paired with fresh ambition — could still spark fireworks in July.
4. Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
Once touted as a co-favourite, Roglič’s Giro crash and subsequent withdrawal leave questions unanswered. No further race days before the Tour adds uncertainty, but his pedigree and capacity to rebound — as seen in multiple Vueltas — can’t be dismissed. He’ll need to rely on sheer resilience and race-day instincts to challenge the top three.
5. João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
Almeida has quietly become one of the most reliable GC engines in the peloton. Wins in Basque Country and Romandie, and a likely return to Tour de Suisse dominance, show he’s climbing with greater fluidity. He’ll again serve as Pogačar’s final mountain lieutenant — and possibly contest the top five himself.
6. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)
The American continues to cement his all-rounder status. While he’s slipped slightly in the rankings since his Paris-Nice win, Jorgenson’s versatility and resilience make him Vingegaard’s prime climbing support. Expect him to be decisive in the Alps and Pyrenees, especially given Simon Yates’ Giro fatigue.
Outside Picks & Best of the Rest
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
Illness may have disrupted his Dauphiné plans, but an Amstel Gold win and TT strength suggest potential top-10 form — if he bounces back in Suisse.
Ben O’Connor (Jayco AlUla)
Struggling for consistency in 2025, but past Grand Tour resilience, especially his podium threat in the Vuelta, means he can’t be ruled out just yet.
Watchlist:
Richard Carapaz – Giro podium finisher; stage wins and KOM ambitions in July.
Thymen Arensman – Third at Paris-Nice; in the mix for Ineos.
Tao Geoghegan Hart – Supporting Skjelmose; may reprise former Giro-winning legs.
David Gaudu & Guillaume Martin – Both with mixed form; watch their Tour de Suisse efforts.
Felix Gall – A promising dark horse for Decathlon AG2R.
Final Thoughts
With the Dauphiné heating up and Tour de Suisse just days away, the form guide will undoubtedly shift again before the peloton rolls into Lille. But right now, Pogačar is the rider to beat — with Vingegaard close behind and Evenepoel lurking with ambition. The 2025 Tour de France is shaping up as a blockbuster three-week battle of superteams, redemption arcs, and possibly, a new cycling king.