Levi Rothermund
Levski Sofia open the first leg of this UEFA Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie at home, and on paper this is a fixture that strongly favors the Bulgarian side. Under Julio Velázquez, Levski have been one of the more consistent teams in their domestic setup this summer, and they carry genuine momentum into this clash. What makes it interesting, though, is that Kairat Almaty arrive with arguably the better short-term form of the two sides, winning five of their last six matches, including a notable two-legged result against Omonia Nicosia in the previous round.
Two players worth tracking are Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo, who has contributed two assists across his last two appearances for Levski and is clearly the creative engine in midfield, and Kairat forward Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho, who has scored in this qualifying campaign and brings physicality that Bulgarian defenses may not have faced recently.
The hot stat from this one: Kairat have managed 11 corner kicks across their last five matches compared to Levski’s 7, suggesting the Kazakh side generates more set-piece pressure than their underdog tag implies.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty Prediction
Levski Sofia are the bookmakers’ clear pick here at around 58% win probability, and we agree with that lean. They are playing at home, they have the stronger squad depth for a European fixture, and their recent domestic results show a team that knows how to grind out wins. Five victories in their last seven matches, with no defeats, tells you they are stable right now.
We think a Levski win in the first leg is the most sensible bet. They have won 21 of 35 matches this year and their 4-2-3-1 shape gives them a solid defensive foundation while allowing Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo and Armstrong Oko-Flex to carry threat in the attacking third.
Kairat’s style will be interesting to watch. Both teams carry seven yellow cards across their last five games, meaning the referee will have a busy night if the physicality picks up. Both sides share an identical goal tally of three goals in their last five matches, which points toward a fairly tight, low-scoring affair rather than an open shootout. Kairat have shown they can defend when needed, holding Omonia scoreless in the second leg. That discipline could keep the margin narrow even if Levski dominate possession.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Levski Sofia to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Levski Sofia enter this match having dropped just once in their last 15 outings, a sequence that includes wins over Septemvri Sofia, Lokomotiv Sofia, and Dunav Ruse. Their most recent match, a 3-0 home win over Septemvri Sofia, was the most convincing performance of the run. Defender Kristian Dimitrov scored in that fixture, and the defensive structure looked well-organized throughout. The 2-2 draw against Universitatea Craiova in the Europa Conference League qualifying was the only blemish recently, and even that result came away from home against a side ranked inside the top 250 globally.
Kairat Almaty come in off the back of a 1-0 second-leg win over Omonia Nicosia that sealed their progression from the previous round. That result was particularly impressive given that Omonia are a well-organized Cypriot top-flight club with European experience. Kairat lost the first leg 0-1 but flipped the tie, which shows a mental resilience that should not be ignored. Before that, they beat Ordabasy 2-1 and Sutjeska 2-0, with Jorge Gabriel Costa Monteiro, Ismail Bekbolat, and Edmilson all contributing goals across those games. Honestly, their attacking rotation is more varied than you might expect from a Kazakh league representative.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have not previously met at this level, so the head-to-head data below reflects stats from the current match context rather than historical meetings.
| Statistic | Levski Sofia | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 3 |
| Total shots | 16 | 17 |
| Corner kicks | 7 | 11 |
| Yellow cards | 7 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Levski Sofia vs Kairat Almaty stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Levski Sofia the favourite
- Moneyline Levski Sofia 1.63 | Kairat Almaty 5.50
- Draw 3.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds on Levski at around 1.63 are fair but not generous. Given that both teams have scored exactly three goals in their last five matches each, and that Kairat have shown a tendency to keep games tight, the draw at 3.65 offers some value if you believe Kairat can replicate their defensive discipline from the Omonia tie. We think the Levski win is still the right call at those prices, though the “win to nil” angle at likely longer odds is where the real value sits if you believe in their defensive shape holding firm.
Kairat Almaty. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Levski Sofia possible starting eleven
- GK: Svetoslav Vutsov
- DF: Maicon Araújo dos Santos, Kristian Dimitrov, Nikola Serafimov, Aldair
- MF: Mehdi Moubarik, Gasper Trdin, Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo
- FW: Armstrong Oko-Flex, Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno, Mustapha Sangaré
Svetoslav Vutsov takes the goalkeeping spot having logged 180 minutes across the last two matches. Maicon Araújo dos Santos is nailed in at right back despite picking up two yellows recently, which is a small concern heading into a European tie. Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo is the standout in this setup, two assists in two games and 179 minutes played, and he should be the one to watch for creative output. Velázquez will likely stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has served them well domestically, with Moubarik and Trdin sitting as a double pivot to protect the back four.
Kairat Almaty possible starting eleven
- GK: Temirlan Anarbekov
- DF: Lucas Áfrico, Aleksandr Martynovich, Luis Mata, Aleksandr Shirobokov
- MF: Jaakko Oksanen, Aleksandr Mrynskiy, Adilet Sadybekov
- FW: Marc Gual, Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho, Ismail Bekbolat
Temirlan Anarbekov has played every minute of Kairat’s last three matches and is the undisputed first choice. Luis Mata has been a consistent presence at left back with 289 minutes logged, and Lucas Áfrico brings similar reliability on the other flank. In midfield, both Jaakko Oksanen and Aleksandr Mrynskiy have played the full 300 minutes across the last three games, which suggests Urazbakhtin trusts this engine room completely. Up front, Marc Gual leads the line with 293 minutes played, and Edmilson provides the goal threat alongside Bekbolat. Kairat will mirror the 4-2-3-1 shape, and their width through the full backs could test Levski’s defensive organization at set pieces.
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Levski Sofia. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Levski Sofia are the right side to back in this first leg. They are at home, they have not lost in their last seven matches, and their squad has more European pedigree than Kairat’s. The Kazakh side will make it competitive, and their ability to flip ties, as they showed against Omonia, means Levski cannot afford to be passive. We think this ends 1-0 or 2-0 to Levski, with Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo pulling the strings and the home defense doing enough to keep Kairat’s attack at bay. The corner market is worth a look too given Kairat’s tendency to generate set-piece situations in wide areas. Our main call is Levski Sofia to win to nil, backed by their defensive solidity and Kairat’s modest output of three goals in five games.
