The 20th edition of Strade Bianche arrives on March 7, 2026, marking the opening salvo of the Spring Classics season. With 201 kilometers of Tuscan terrain, 64 kilometers of gravel across 14 sectors, and a finish atop the iconic Piazza del Campo, the stage is set for fireworks. Tadej Pogačar looms as the dominant favorite, but several dark horses carry the form and talent to deliver a shock result.
Event Preview
Organizers have trimmed the 2026 route by 14 kilometers and reduced gravel from 82 to 64 kilometers compared to 2025, removing the La Piana (6.4 km) and Serravalle (9.3 km) sectors entirely. The opening Vidritta sector shrinks from 4.4 to 2.4 kilometers. The decisive finale, though, remains untouched. Monte Sante Marie’s 4.5-kilometer gravel sector with gradients hitting 18% sits 72 kilometers from the finish, serving as the first major selection point. The final 30-kilometer circuit features Colle Pinzuto (2.4 km, 15% max) and Le Tolfe (1.1 km, 18% ramp) — both negotiated twice — before the brutal Via Santa Caterina climb into Piazza del Campo.
Weather forecasts project 17°C with minimal wind and negligible rain, meaning dry, dusty gravel rather than the mud that has defined some past editions. Pogačar chases a fourth title and makes his 2026 season debut. Tom Pidcock, the 2023 champion and 2025 runner-up, leads the challengers. Wout van Aert returns after two years away from the race. Isaac del Toro could operate as UAE Team Emirates’ second card. This is the most stacked Strade Bianche field in years.
Also read: How to Watch Strade Bianche 2026
Strade Bianche 2026 Dark Horse Odds
| Rider | Team | Odds |
| Ben Healy | EF Education-EasyPost | +2500 |
| Thymen Arensman | INEOS Grenadiers | +8000 |
| Paul Seixas | Decathlon CMA CGM | +1500 |
| Quinn Simmons | Lidl-Trek | +5000 |
| Giulio Pellizzari | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | +6000 |
Paul Seixas headlines the dark horse picks at +1500 after a scorching early-season display. Ben Healy’s proven pedigree on these roads makes him a legitimate threat at +2500, though recent form raises questions. Quinn Simmons offers value at +5000 given his hilly terrain specialization and WorldTour podium credentials. Giulio Pellizzari (+6000) and Thymen Arensman (+8000) sit as longer shots — both are Grand Tour climbers using Strade Bianche primarily as preparation, but the race’s brutal terrain could play into their favor if the pace fragments the peloton early. Each of these riders carries a realistic path to a top-five finish, and in a race where crashes and punctures can reshape the outcome in seconds, any one of them could find themselves in the mix on the final climb into Piazza del Campo.
Also read: Strade Bianche 2026 Odds and Favorites
Ben Healy
Healy finished 4th at Strade Bianche in 2025, confirming his suitability to the white roads of Tuscany. His 2025 season was outstanding: a Tour de France stage win via a 42.6-kilometer solo attack, a spell in the yellow jersey (the first Irishman since Stephen Roche in 1987), a 3rd at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and a bronze medal at the UCI Road World Championships in Rwanda. He finished 9th overall at the Tour de France and collected the Combativity Award.
The 25-year-old Irishman signed a contract extension with EF Education-EasyPost through 2029 in January 2026, naming Strade Bianche as his first major seasonal objective. There is a concern, though. At the Faun-Ardèche Classic and Faun-Drôme Classic in late February, Healy was reportedly dropped heavily by Paul Seixas and Romain Grégoire. Whether that reflects a fitness lag or deliberate training load management remains unclear. His 2025 4th-place finish proves he belongs on this course — the question is whether his legs are there on March 7.
Thymen Arensman
The 26-year-old Dutchman is a pure climber and stage race specialist standing 1.9 meters tall — not the typical Strade Bianche profile. His 2025 season centered on Grand Tour success: two solo mountain-top stage victories at the Tour de France, 12th overall at the Tour, 3rd at Paris-Nice, and 2nd at the Tour of the Alps. These are impressive results, but they came on terrain very different from Tuscan gravel.
Arensman’s Strade Bianche record is discouraging: a DNF in 2024 and 117th place in 2021. His participation likely serves as an early-season conditioning test for INEOS Grenadiers rather than a targeted objective. He rides alongside Egan Bernal and Axel Laurance. A top-20 finish would represent significant improvement, and a podium would require a dramatic leap in one-day racing capability. Still, his raw climbing power could prove devastating if the race comes down to pure watts on the final climbs.
Paul Seixas
The 19-year-old Frenchman is the most exciting dark horse on this start list. Days before Strade Bianche, Seixas destroyed the field at the Faun-Ardèche Classic with a devastating 41-kilometer solo attack — the kind of long-range move that echoes Pogačar’s own signature style. Reports indicate Seixas matched Pogačar’s climbing times on the Saint-Romain-de-Lerps climb from the 2025 European Championships while descending 16 seconds faster — and two seconds quicker than Matej Mohorič, widely considered the peloton’s best descender.
Seixas brings a cyclo-cross background (French Junior Champion 2023-2024), a 2024 Junior World Time Trial title, an overall victory at the 2025 Tour de l’Avenir, and an 8th overall at the Critérium du Dauphiné at just 18 years old. Groupama-FDJ manager Marc Madiot has called him “the chosen one” for French cycling. This is his Strade Bianche debut, and history shows even Pogačar finished 30th on his first attempt at age 20. Crashes, punctures, and positioning errors loom large for a debutant. The talent is undeniable — the experience gap is the wildcard.
Quinn Simmons
The reigning USA national road champion brings a profile that fits Strade Bianche’s demands. Simmons is a hilly terrain and gravel specialist who, according to pre-race analysts, “often looks at home on this terrain.” His 2025 highlights include stage victories at the Volta a Catalunya and Tour de Suisse, plus a 3rd-place finish at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal behind Pogačar and Brandon McNulty — a career-best WorldTour one-day result.
At 24, Simmons holds 55th on the UCI World Ranking. Limited early 2026 race data is available, suggesting Strade Bianche may be his first significant European racing effort of the season. He rides for Lidl-Trek with veteran Bauke Mollema providing support. Simmons’ capacity to hang with elite opposition was proven in Montréal. If the race fragments into small groups on the final circuit, his punch and tactical aggression could deliver a top-five finish. A podium would require everything to fall perfectly.
Giulio Pellizzari
Italy is desperate for its next Grand Tour champion, and the 22-year-old Pellizzari carries that weight on his shoulders. His 2025 breakthrough season delivered 6th overall at the Giro d’Italia (his Grand Tour debut) and 6th overall at the Vuelta a España, where he also claimed a stage victory at Alto de El Morederu. He has developed under the mentorship of Primož Roglič at Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, a relationship he describes as transformative.
For 2026, the team added Remco Evenepoel to the roster, and Pellizzari has requested Giro d’Italia participation as his primary Grand Tour target. Strade Bianche serves as an early-season test rather than a peak objective. He showed good form at the Tour of Valencia in early 2026. His climbing power is elite, but the technical gravel sectors and one-day racing demands represent unfamiliar territory compared to his Grand Tour specialization. The home crowd factor and his raw talent make him worth watching, even if a podium remains a stretch.
Strade Bianche 2026 promises to be one of the most compelling editions in the race’s 20-year history. Pogačar may dominate again, but the depth of talent lining up behind him — particularly the explosive emergence of Paul Seixas — means surprises are very much on the table. Don’t miss the action on March 7. Check out our other Strade Bianche 2026 previews and betting guides at TipsGG.