Tour of Guangxi 2025 Preview

At its core, Guangxi is the last real chance in 2025 for teams and riders to grab UCI points, pick off a final win, settle contracts, and close the season with momentum. The roster is varied — GC hopefuls, punchy riders, sprinters, and riders fighting for survival.

Let’s run through the key contexts before naming favorites.

The Cofidis relegation fight

This is one of the threads likely to determine the tone of the race. Cofidis enters Guangxi needing more than 300 UCI points to overtake Uno-X Mobility and avoid relegation to ProSeries for 2026. That’s a tall order.

Their hopes rest on showing up big — in the GC and in sprints. Emanuel Buchmann, in the final phase of his career, must deliver over the climbs; Stanisław Aniołkowski must score in flat finishes. Meanwhile, Uno-X is not even invited to Guangxi, and their remaining opportunities lie in a couple of late-season races in Veneto. That gives Cofidis a slim window. But even if they fall short here, everything depends on whether the merger between Lotto and Intermarché-Wanty clears — that could open a path for Cofidis via an 18th WorldTour slot. So this is do-or-die for them.

Because of that pressure, I expect Cofidis to animate the race: attacks, breakaways, defending hard. Even if they can’t win overall, they won’t go quietly.

UAE’s hunt for win No. 100

UAE Team Emirates-XRG is already having a historic year. They’ve racked up 94 wins so far in 2025, and are in search of their 100th.

That target pushes them into every race with intent. They won’t send a token squad — they’ll bring riders capable of success. But they lack a clear sprinter to reliably pick up stage wins on flat days. Still, their depth gives them flexibility. If Narváez or Jan Christen can seize a few stages or GC chances, that helps.

Expect them to defend and attack smartly, adding pressure to all rivals. They’ll treat Guangxi as more than just a calendar closer — it’s a place to cement legacies and break records.

Contract endings, farewells & last chances

Some riders will race in China knowing this might be their final WorldTour event. Others still lack confirmed contracts for 2026 and need results to justify their place.

Among those: Ryan Gibbons (Lidl-Trek), Dan McLay (Visma-Lease a Bike) may take personal pride rides. Riders on teams like Lotto or Intermarché-Wanty — uncertain in the wake of the proposed merger — will be especially motivated.

Cian Uijtdebroeks is doing Guangxi as his last race for Visma-Lease a Bike before moving to Movistar. Pello Bilbao, Jan Christen, and others will also want to leave on a strong note.

You can bet there will be aggressive moves, opportunism, and risk-taking from riders with something to prove.

Route, race features & stage patterns

Understanding the terrain and stage layout is key to judging who can beat whom.

The race has six stages from 14 to 19 October:

• Stage 1: Fangchenggang → Fangchenggang, ~149 km, mostly flat with a short climb to disrupt sprint trains near the end.
• Stage 2: Chongzuo → Jingxi, ~179.6 km.
• Stage 3: Jingxi → Bama, ~214 km (the longest).
• Stage 4: Bama → Jinchengjiang, ~176.8 km.
• Stage 5: Yizhou → Nongla (Mashan) ~165.8 km. Nongla is the big climb finish. This is the likely GC decider.
• Stage 6: Nanning → Nanning, ~134.3 km — likely rolling but flat enough for sprinters or puncheurs to contest.

In short: several sprint or near-sprint stages, one challenging finale in Stage 5, and a long intermediate stage that may offer a breakaway chance. The GC will likely be decided on Nongla.

Riders who can survive or minimize losses on flats, then punch hard on the climb, will win — but the margin is slim.

Also, the recently proposed UCI test of maximum gearing (for safety) was cancelled after intervention from the Belgian Competition Authority. That’s a relief for many climbers who worried about constraints. The race will proceed under traditional gearing rules.

Key contenders & dark horses

Here’s how We rank some of the strongest cards in the deck.

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)

He’s a heavy favorite on paper. Skjelmose is fresh off Il Lombardia (even though he DNFed there), and has proven GC ability. His form and climbing make him dangerous on the deciding stage. The risk: fatigue, the long intervening flat stages, and team support.

Jhonatan Narváez (UAE)

Narváez’s 2025 has already been stellar — he took the GC title in Tour Down Under earlier in the season. If he arrives fresh, he’s got the punch and climbing legs to contend. UAE will lean on him to help in their 100-win quest.

Paul Magnier (Soudal-QuickStep)

Magnier is more of a fast finisher/puncher than a pure climber. He’ll aim for stage wins rather than GC. But if he keeps GC losses minimal and plays his cards smart, a surprise top-3 isn’t out of the question.

Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma)

In his farewell race for Visma, Uijtdebroeks could go all out. If he’s maintained good condition, he may surprise. But I see him more as a dark horse than a favorite.

Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious)

Solid and consistent. Not flashy as a climber, but reliable. He could hang on and be in contention, especially if favorites falter.

Jan Christen (UAE)

Narváez’s teammate, capable of surprising moves. He may not win overall, but could help UAE’s strategy, pick a stage, or apply pressure.

Prediction: Who will win?

Given the route, the strength of squads, motivation, and pressure, here’s how We at TipsGG see it:

Our pick: Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Why?

• He’s in strong form, already showed GC capability earlier in the season.
• UAE’s depth gives him support and tactical flexibility.
• The 100th victory ambition gives extra incentive.
• On the climb to Nongla, he can claw back time or defend aggressively.
• If Skjelmose shows signs of weakness, Narváez is well placed to pounce.

Runner-up pick: Mattias Skjelmose

If Skjelmose strikes cleanly on Stage 5, he has the legs to win — especially if conditions favor him. But the fatigue factor and aggressive rivals make him slightly more vulnerable.

Dark horse: Cian Uijtdebroeks

He might sneak onto the podium if he’s slept well and has no pressure. He could be a surprise wildcard.

Stage win bets

• Paul Magnier: as the class pick among sprinters and puncheurs, he might snag a stage or two.
• Jordi Meeus, Pavel Bittner, Phil Bauhaus: strong in pure sprints; may take advantage on flatter finale days.

Cofidis’ battle

Even if Cofidis can’t challenge for GC, I expect them to animate breakaways, push tempo, and use every card. Survival may come down to finishing well and collecting scattered points.

Possible race scenarios

• Controlled ride until Stage 5

  The flat and rolling stages go to sprinters or reduced sprints. GC teams keep things calm. On Nongla, the real fireworks: Narváez, Skjelmose, Uijtdebroeks etc. burst, others crack.

• Aggressive early attacks

  Cofidis, contract-hunters, or bold breakaways try to force moves early, hoping to unsettle favorites. This could shake up the peloton and force chase efforts.

• Weather, wind, misfortune

  Crosswinds or rain could split the race. Crashes or mechanicals might cost a favorite valuable time. In a close race, small margins matter.

• Team orders shape outcome

  UAE may use Christen or other riders tactically to pressure rivals or cover moves. That could tilt the balance in final moments.

Risks & caveats

• Form is always a variable — a bad day, illness, or fatigue could derail any contender.
• Team support: A GC rider isolating or lacking backup at a key moment is dangerous.
• Stage 5 is steep and decisive — losing time there may be impossible to recover.
• Because some riders are under pressure for contracts or relegation, desperation may lead to unpredictability.

If I were placing a confident bet, I lean Narváez — he offers the mix of form, motivation, and team backing necessary. Skjelmose is a real threat, but has more to lose and more variables to manage. Uijtdebroeks, Bilbao, Christen and others might disrupt or podium, but the win looks like a two-man fight.

Cofidis will fight, but probably won’t win GC. Their better hope is to salvage points and possibly take stage glory or animate the race.

So: Narváez first, Skjelmose second, potentially Uijtdebroeks third. Watch out for surprises on Nongla — it may be where the 2025 WorldTour ends with drama.