Date: Wednesday, July 23
Start: Bollène at 13:50 CEST
Finish: Valence (estimated 17:20 CEST)
Distance: 160.4 km
Elevation Gain: 1592m
The Route: Rhône Valley Tension
Stage 17 charts a scenic, tension-filled route through the Rhône Valley — the gateway between the Massif Central and the Alps. Despite being flanked by dramatic peaks to the west and east, today’s profile is largely sprinter-friendly: gently rising terrain early on, punctuated by two Category 4 climbs, before flattening out towards a high-speed finale in Valence.
Bollène, debuting in the Tour, plays host to the rollout before riders skirt through vineyards and lavender fields. The day’s climbs — the Col du Pertuis (3.1km at 5.8%) and Col de Tartaiguille (4.4km at 3.6%) — are unlikely to break the rhythm of well-organized sprint trains, especially with the final 40km flattening out and widening towards Valence.
Sprint Showdown: Last Chance Before the Alps
As mountain stages loom, Stage 17 could mark the last real opportunity for sprinters. The finale favors high speed and positioning — a 600m finishing straight, preceded by four roundabouts in 2km, and a sharp left-hand bend just 650m from the line. Expect fireworks in the final kilometer, especially with a tailwind providing an extra nudge.
Source: letour.fr
Key Climbs and Sprint Points
Intermediate Sprint: 47.9 km mark – on a rising section, favoring a breakaway to scoop points.
Col du Pertuis: 94.2 km to go – Category 4 – 3.1km at 5.8%
Col de Tartaiguille: 43.9 km to go – Category 4 – 4.4km at 3.6%
Weather Forecast
Expect warm temperatures (26–28°C) and light headwinds from the northwest. Cloud cover may increase with a small chance of rain near the finish. The tailwind in the final 600m favors a high-speed drag race.
Tour de France. 2025. Stage 17. Who will win
According to Fairpari odds, Tim Merlier is the favourite for stage 17.
| Rider Name | Odds |
| Tim Merlier | 2.2 |
| Jonathan Milan | 3.5 |
| Wout Van Aert | 12 |
| Jordi Meeus | 15 |
| Arnaud de Lie | 20 |
| Biniam Girmay | 25 |
| Kaden Groves | 25 |
| Jonas Abrahamsen | 30 |
| Kasper Asgreen | 50 |
| Alberto Dainese | 50 |
| Pavel Bittner | 50 |
| Magnus Cort | 65 |
| Matej Mohoric | 65 |
| Michael Valgren Andersen | 65 |
| Benjamin Thomas | 65 |
Favorites and Dark Horses
Tim Merlier (Soudal–Quick-Step) has already won twice this Tour and remains the fastest pure sprinter. Despite limited support, his instinct and power could deliver a third win.
Jonathan Milan (Lidl–Trek) has the green jersey in sight and his team will prioritize intermediate and final sprint points. Though not as explosive, his resilience and climbing legs might prove crucial.
Watch for late-surging sprinters like Kaden Groves, Arnaud De Lie, Jordi Meeus, and Biniam Girmay — all capable of spoiling the party if chaos reigns in the final 500 meters.
Outside Picks
With fatigue high and team trains depleted, the door opens for surprises. Names like Dylan Groenewegen, Pascal Ackermann, and Arnaud Démare thrive in flat finishes. If the sprint gets messy, Phil Bauhaus, Alberto Dainese, or Jake Stewart could find daylight.
Breakaway Threat?
While sprinters’ teams hold the cards, the third week chaos could inspire strong riders to gamble. EF’s Kasper Asgreen and Neilson Powless, or Magnus Cort from Uno-X, might test the peloton’s patience. But unless unity collapses, expect a controlled finish.
Stage 17 Prediction
Our Pick: Tim Merlier – Even without a full lead-out, his finishing speed is unmatched when positioned well. A tailwind, flat finish, and clear air could be his ticket to a third win.
Historical Echoes
Valence has smiled on sprinters before. In 2015, Greipel took the win. Sagan followed in 2018. In 2021, it was Cavendish – yet another historic notch in the Manxman’s belt. Will 2025 deliver a similar script?
Stay tuned — this might be the last flat finish of this year’s Tour, and no one wants to leave Valence empty-handed.