Date: Tuesday, July 22
Route: 171.5 km from Montpellier to Mont Ventoux
Start: 12:10 CEST • Finish: ~16:44 CEST
Why This Stage Could Be a Game‑Changer
Coming off a rest day and entering week three, fatigue — or resurgence — can surprise. The abrupt shift from 150 km of flat into a violently steep 15.7 km finale on Mont Ventoux at 1,910 m makes today a crucible. History has shown unexpected results in this brutal landing zone.
Mont Ventoux: A Legendary But Perilous Summit
The barren limestone peak of Ventoux has seen chaos—from Froome’s jog in 2016 when a motorbike blocked him, to his full‑gas hammer blow in 2013 to drop Contador ~7 km out. With gradients averaging a brutal 8.8% (and topping 10% early), the finale promises big time gaps.
Source: letour.fr
Tour de France 2025 Stage 16 Odds
According to Fairpari odds, Tadej Pogacar is the clear favourite for stage 16.
| Rider Name | Odds |
| Tadej Pogacar | 1.35 |
| Jonas Vingegaard | 9 |
| Florian Lipowitz | 21 |
| Lenny Martinez | 23 |
| Thymen Arensman | 26 |
| Felix Gall | 29 |
| Michael Woods | 41 |
| Ben O’Connor | 41 |
| Sepp Kuss | 41 |
| Matteo Jorgenson | 41 |
| Santiago Buitrago | 41 |
| Michael Storer | 50 |
| Simon Yates | 50 |
| Harold Tejada | 50 |
| Valentin Paret-Peintre | 50 |
Contenders & Tactics
- Tadej Pogačar (UAE) — Hunting history in yellow. His punchy style suits this terrain; expect full control before an explosive finale.
- Jonas Vingegaard (Visma) — The one rider who can match Pogačar uphill. Might attack just before the exposed top to break free.
- Other GC challengers — Onley, Vauquelin, Roglič, Lipowitz, Johannessen, Gall, Jorgenson: dangerous if form holds and support dries up.
- Break specialists — Lenny Martínez, Ben O’Connor, Michael Woods, Santiago Buitrago, Simon Yates, Thymen Arensman, Michael Storer. Strong solo or in small groups — likely from deep escape.
Race Dynamics & Weather
First 150 km flat, tightly controlled by teams like UAE and Visma to keep breakaways in check. An intermediate sprint at Uzès may give Milan a last push for green points. At foot of Ventoux, expect wind from NW at ~20 km/h, rising as a tail‑to‑head combo on the slopes — adding another strategic layer.
Stage Breakdown
• Flat start, some street furniture in towns—watch for “points durs”.
• Intermediate sprint in Uzès: 30 green jersey points up for grabs, big reward for Milan.
• Final climb: 4 km at ~5% through Bédoin orchards, then 15 km at 8.8%, with sustained gradients >10% early, easing then tightening to the hairpin finish.
Postcard from Bédoin
This village of 3,000 is central to cycling mythology—bike shops, themed hotels, and tourism all orbit Ventoux. While the town fully embraces cycling, streets still favor cars; parking and bike‑lock infrastructure lag. But its legend is undeniable: the starting line for so many Ventoux dreams.
Prediction
Pick: Tadej Pogačar — Armed with yellow, punchiness, and team control, he’s poised to summit Ventoux again in celebratory style.
Alternate: Gripping solo from break — Lenny Martínez or Michael Storer could upset the GC favourite if granted leeway.
Don’t Miss It
Magic and mayhem await atop Mont Ventoux. The early adventure could unfold in the flat, but today’s data lives in the final climb.