PAOK vs Anderlecht Prediction: 06.08.2026 UEFA Europa League

PAOK host Anderlecht at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki in the third qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League 2026/27. This is the first leg of a two-legged tie, with the aggregate result deciding which club advances. PAOK come in as clear favorites, backed by home advantage and a noticeably stronger run of recent results. What makes this tie interesting is the contrast in how both sides have been scoring: PAOK have been direct and clinical, while Anderlecht have ground out results without always finding the net freely.

Giannis Konstantelias is the player to watch for the home side. The midfielder has scored three goals in his last two appearances and is clearly in excellent form heading into this tie. For Anderlecht, Danylo Sikan has been their most reliable attacker, netting twice in his last two matches and likely to lead the line under Vítor Bruno’s 4-2-3-1 setup.

A standout stat from recent games: PAOK put four goals past Westerlo without reply in their most recent domestic outing, showing just how potent Alessio Lisci’s side can be when given space to attack.

PAOK vs Anderlecht Prediction

PAOK are the stronger pick here. They have won four of their last five matches, they are playing at home in front of what will be a loud Toumba crowd, and their squad depth and recent scoring output put them well ahead of Anderlecht on current form. The bookmakers agree, pricing PAOK as heavy favorites across the board.

We predict a PAOK win in regulation. The home side has the firepower and the tactical structure to control this match. Anderlecht have been solid defensively in patches, but they have drawn two of their last five and have not faced a team of PAOK’s quality in recent weeks. A first-leg home win for PAOK is the clearest value available.

Looking at playing styles, PAOK have committed 26 fouls and collected four yellow cards across their last five games, which suggests a physically engaged approach without being reckless. Anderlecht, on the other hand, have picked up five yellow cards and one red card in the same period. That discipline issue could prove costly, especially in a competitive European tie where PAOK’s midfield is likely to press and draw contact. Anderlecht’s pass accuracy and possession data is incomplete from the recent sample, but their corner kick count of 12 across five matches shows they do push forward and generate attacking situations. PAOK’s defensive shape, with 24 interceptions recorded, should handle that pressure well.

Team Analysis

PAOK have been in strong form over the past month, winning four of their last five matches. Their form across a longer stretch shows some inconsistency, but the recent trajectory is clearly upward. They have just come through a Europa League qualifying tie against Dynamo Kyiv, winning both legs, 3-2 away and 2-0 at home. That is a confident performance against a side ranked considerably higher than most of PAOK’s recent domestic opponents. Before that, they beat AEK Larnaca 3-2 and dismantled Westerlo 4-0, confirming their attacking output is at a high level right now.

Anderlecht arrive with three wins, two draws, and no losses from their last five matches. That is an unbeaten run, but the draws against Hammarby and Boulogne show they are not always dominant. They beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 and Nijmegen 3-2, which are positive results, but the level of opposition has been mixed. Their 3-1 win over Hammarby in the most recent outing is the most encouraging result, showing they can score freely when things click. Vítor Bruno will need his side to be far more consistent against a PAOK team that has been scoring at will at home.

🚨Check out our dedicated PAOK vs Anderlecht stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: PAOK the Favourite

• Moneyline PAOK 1.78 | Anderlecht 4.23
• Draw 3.57
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The odds paint a clear picture. PAOK at around 1.78 reflects their home advantage, recent form, and the quality gap between the two clubs at this moment. Anderlecht at 4.23 is priced as a genuine upset, which aligns with the bookmakers’ win probability of just 22% for the Belgian side. The draw at 3.57 is fair given Anderlecht’s tendency to grind out stalemates, but PAOK’s attacking output makes a goalless or low-scoring draw unlikely at Toumba. We see value in backing PAOK to win, and the first-leg home context only strengthens that view.

Possible Starting Lineups

PAOK Possible Starting Eleven

Alessio Lisci has been consistent with his 4-3-3 shape across recent matches, and this lineup reflects that. Jiří Pavlenka has been the first-choice goalkeeper and brings European experience. The defensive line picks itself, with Hatzidiakos and Michailidis forming a solid central pairing. Baptiste Santamaria anchors the midfield and has chipped in with a goal recently, while Mady Camara provides energy alongside him. Giannis Konstantelias is the standout name in attack, arriving at this match in the form of his life with three goals in two games. Živković and Taison offer width and creativity on the flanks to support Mythou through the middle.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Eleven

Vítor Bruno typically lines his side up in a 4-2-3-1 structure, and this selection fits that framework. Colin Coosemans takes the gloves as the regular starter. The back four is built around players who have logged consistent minutes, with Ali Maamar also contributing an assist recently. In midfield, Llansana and Marco Kana provide structure, with Ambros and Nga Kana pushing forward. Danylo Sikan leads the attack and is Anderlecht’s biggest threat, having scored twice in two matches. Mihajlo Cvetkovic, also a goal scorer in this run, gives Vítor Bruno a second option in the final third. Augustinsson’s yellow card history is worth watching given the disciplined approach PAOK will likely demand.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

PAOK are the better team on current form and they have the home crowd behind them at Toumba. Their 80% win rate over the last 30 days, combined with a 4-0 and a 3-2 scoreline in recent outings, shows a team that scores goals freely and defends with purpose. Anderlecht are unbeaten in five, but their level of competition has been lower, and two of those results were draws.

Konstantelias in midfield is a genuine danger, and PAOK’s 24 interceptions across five games signal a team that disrupts well without the ball. Anderlecht’s red card and five yellow cards across the same period could become a factor if PAOK press aggressively from the start.

We predict a PAOK win with both teams scoring. The first leg at Toumba should see PAOK take control of the tie with a 2-1 scoreline, with Sikan grabbing a consolation for Anderlecht. That said, backing PAOK to win and over 2.5 goals represents the clearest combination of value and probability from this fixture.

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