The Tour de France finally storms into the high mountains—and the Pyrenees are ready to rewrite the general classification. Stage 12 is a pivotal day, one that sees the peloton clash on the mythical slopes of Hautacam. With Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard poised for their first summit duel since the Critérium du Dauphiné, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The Route: Calm Before the Storm
Rolling out from Auch, Stage 12 begins with deceptive serenity—flat roads and gentle rhythms. But the Pyrenees loom. Once inside the final third of the stage, the road tilts upward with brutal honesty, challenging every rider’s resilience.
Stage 12 Odds
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| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | 1.90 |
| Jonas Vingegaard | 4.00 |
| Mattias Skjelmose Jensen | 17.00 |
| Remco Evenepoel | 17.00 |
| Thymen Arensman | 21.00 |
| Lenny Martínez | 21.00 |
| Matteo Jorgenson | 29.00 |
| Michael Storer | 35.00 |
| Simon Yates | 35.00 |
| Felix Gall | 35.00 |
| Ben O’Connor | 40.00 |
| Florian Lipowitz | 40.00 |
| Santiago Buitrago | 40.00 |
| Primož Roglič | 40.00 |
| Sepp Kuss | 70.00 |
| Einar Augusto Rubio Reyes | 70.00 |
| Cristian Rodriguez Martin | 70.00 |
| Sergio Andres Higuita Garcia | 80.00 |
| Oscar Onley | 80.00 |
Climbs That Shape the Day
The first major obstacle is the Col du Soulor—11.6km at 7.6%. It’s a mid-stage menace, topping out with 46km to go and certain to fragment the peloton.
Shortly after, riders tackle the Col des Bordères (3.3km at 8%), which crests with 35km remaining. It acts as a prelude to the stage’s headline ascent.
Then comes Hautacam: 13.6km at 7.8%. This summit finish has a history of devastation—most notably in 2022 when Vingegaard cracked Pogacar. It’s long, punishing, and unrelenting, offering no tactical shadows to hide in. Pure power-to-weight will decide the victor.
Heat and Heartbreak
Weather won’t bring much wind, but temperatures are forecast to hit 26°C at the summit—enough to make the mountain air feel stifling. For some, the heat may be the tipping point. Expect visible suffering, exposed weaknesses, and perhaps even GC collapses.
The Favorites: Power Meets Pressure
Tadej Pogacar enters as the climbing standard. Consistent, explosive, and tactically sharp, he thrives in these summit battles. This stage, though, neutralizes his punchiness—long gradients and relentless rhythm rule here. UAE will miss Almeida’s pacing, but the profile doesn’t lend itself to tactical outflanking. Still, Pogacar’s minor crash today adds mental noise—something to watch.
Jonas Vingegaard looks razor sharp. His Dauphiné form is carrying forward, and psychologically, he’s dialed in. Visma’s early-race aggression may have sapped UAE’s morale. But with tactics off the table, Vingegaard must now deliver on pure climbing merit. He cannot afford to falter here—this is a defining test.
GC Picture: No Room to Hide
The flat opening makes it unlikely for GC contenders to gamble with early attacks. Expect a steady tempo led by UAE and Visma until the real battle erupts on Hautacam.
Remco Evenepoel will be defending his podium position, using this day as a benchmark of how far he can push into the elite climbers’ territory. Ben Healy, current yellow jersey holder, may surrender the lead but should still show strength. Kévin Vauquelin is expected to slide down the GC in these longer climbs.
Riders like Florian Lipowitz, Felix Gall, and Enric Mas could animate the chase for Top 10 positions. Meanwhile, Primož Roglič, quietly sharpening throughout the Tour, could surprise if he finds his rhythm early on the final climb.
Breakaway Dynamics: Slim but Possible
Could a breakaway steal the day? It’s unlikely—but not impossible. For that to happen, UAE would need to allow a margin of 6-7 minutes before the major climbs. Still, recent Tour trends suggest they won’t gamble on letting outsiders snatch valuable stage wins.
Mattias Skjelmose (18th on GC) could be the best-placed rider willing to roll the dice. Others worth watching include Guillaume Martin, Ben O’Connor, Thymen Arensman, Michael Storer, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Alexey Lutsenko, Santiago Buitrago, and Lenny Martínez. Their chances hinge on tactical leniency from their teams and rivals.
Stage 12 is more than just a climb—it’s a crucible. As Hautacam looms, so too does a clearer image of who will wear yellow in Paris. Pogacar. Vingegaard. The mountains will speak—and we’ll be listening. Stay with us on TipsGG for full coverage and post-stage analysis.