Liam Duckstein
The Derby della Madonnina goes international. Milan and Inter meet at Optus Stadium in Perth on August 5, 2026 in what is a pre-season friendly but carries the weight of a rivalry that never truly switches off. Both clubs are under new management, with Ruben Amorim now leading Milan and Cristian Chivu at the helm of Inter, making this the first competitive look at how each side has taken shape heading into the new season.
Inter carry a clear edge in recent form and rank considerably higher in the world club standings. Young striker Francesco Camarda has been catching the eye for Milan, netting twice in just 45 minutes against Celtic in their last outing. For Inter, midfielder Andy Diouf has been the standout performer with two goals across two pre-season appearances, combining direct running with a high shot volume that has consistently troubled opposition defenses.
Hot stat: Inter registered 34 total shots across their last five matches compared to Milan’s 10, reflecting a significant difference in attacking intent and territorial dominance heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Optus Stadium, Perth |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 12:00 CEST |
Milan vs Inter prediction
Bookmakers make Inter the favourite at around 41% implied probability, and the stats back that up. Inter have won one and drawn one across their last two matches, maintaining a 50% win rate in the past 30 days. Milan, by contrast, managed only a single draw in their lone outing during the same period. Over the full year, Inter’s 63% win rate dwarfs Milan’s 43%, and their shot output and pass volume in recent matches point to a team that is further along in their pre-season build-up.
We predict an Inter win here. The gap in form and squad depth is hard to ignore, even in a friendly context. Amorim’s Milan looked disjointed in their 2-2 draw with Celtic, conceding twice and relying on a youthful squad that featured several players with limited top-level minutes. Inter, meanwhile, held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw and looked organized in both phases.
From a style perspective, Inter averaged 17 fouls and accumulated 2 yellow cards across their recent five matches, showing a physical edge. Milan were cleaner disciplinarily with 14 fouls and no yellow cards, but their lower interception count suggests they are less aggressive in pressing and winning the ball back. Inter’s 3-5-2 shape, as seen in recent outings, gives them numerical security in midfield while still providing width through their wing-backs, which is likely to create problems for Milan’s 4-3-3 defensive structure. Amorim’s system typically demands high pressing intensity, but without consistent personnel across the squad, that structure can be vulnerable to transitions.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Andy Diouf to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Milan’s pre-season under Ruben Amorim has been a mixed picture. They beat Genoa 2-1 and drew 2-2 with Celtic but also suffered defeats to Atalanta (2-3) and Sassuolo (0-2), and lost to Cagliari 1-2. The Celtic draw was their most recent outing and perhaps the most telling. Milan conceded twice and needed two goals from Francesco Camarda, who played just 45 minutes, to salvage the result. The squad featured a number of youth players, including David Odogu and Zachary Athekame, which reflects either the early stage of pre-season or ongoing squad construction under the new coach. Passing volume was relatively low at 588 passes in that match, and corner kicks were limited to three, suggesting Milan struggled to sustain pressure in wide areas.
Inter’s pre-season has been more encouraging. Their most recent match, a 1-1 draw with Manchester City, was a strong statement. Prior to that, they beat Karlsruher SC 2-1 in a routine run-out. Earlier in pre-season they drew 3-3 with Bologna, drew 1-1 with Verona, and beat Lazio 2-0. The level of opposition Inter have faced is notably higher than what Milan have encountered, and they have responded well. Against Manchester City, they generated real attacking threat, with Diouf and Benjamin Pavard both getting on the scoresheet across recent matches. Inter’s 911 passes and 802 pass accuracy in their last recorded outing highlights a team that likes to build through the thirds. Their 14 interceptions and 24 free kicks indicate an active, competitive approach even in friendlies.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met seven times across all competitions in recent memory, with Milan winning four of those encounters. Their most recent Serie A clash ended 1-0 to Milan, and the Coppa Italia semifinal saw Milan win 3-0 on aggregate across two legs.
🚨Check out our dedicated Milan vs Inter stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Inter the favourite
- Moneyline Milan 2.88 | Inter 2.31
- Draw 3.70
The odds reflect a competitive match, but Inter are the clear favourite across most books. Milan at 2.88 with Bcgame or Roobet offers some value if you believe Amorim’s side can pull off an upset, but the form data does not strongly support that outcome. Inter’s price around 2.05 to 2.31 is a fair representation of their current standing. The draw at 3.60 to 3.70 is tempting given the derby nature of the fixture, and history shows these two sides are capable of tight results. To be honest, the volume of goals Inter have been producing in pre-season makes the BTTS market worth exploring if odds become available closer to kick-off.
Possible Starting Lineups
Milan possible starting eleven
- GK: Lorenzo Torriani
- DF: Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic, Matteo Gabbia, Davide Bartesaghi
- MF: Youssouf Fofana, Samuele Ricci, Ruben Loftus-Cheek
- FW: Samuel Chukwueze, Francesco Camarda, Yunus Musah
Based on recent appearances, Amorim is likely to line up in a 4-3-3 shape. Lorenzo Torriani gets the nod in goal having played the full 90 minutes against Celtic. The back four is drawn from the players who have featured most, with Tomori and Pavlovic as the central pairing. Samuele Ricci and Youssouf Fofana anchor the midfield, while Loftus-Cheek provides a box-to-box option. Francesco Camarda is the most dangerous attacker in this squad right now and is the player to watch. His two goals against Celtic in limited time show a natural instinct in front of goal that will test Inter’s backline.
Inter possible starting eleven
- GK: Josep Martinez
- DF: Yann Bisseck, Benjamin Pavard, Alessandro Bastoni, Carlos Augusto, Federico Dimarco
- MF: Nicolò Barella, Piotr Zielinski, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Aleksandar Stankovic
- FW: Andy Diouf
Chivu has been rotating between Josep Martinez and Raffaele Di Gennaro in goal, but Martinez has the superior save count and appears to be the first-choice option. The 3-5-2 shape Inter have used in recent matches calls for three central defenders, with Bastoni, Pavard, and Bisseck forming that unit. Dimarco and Augusto operate as wing-backs, giving Inter width and attacking threat from deep. Barella and Zielinski control the tempo in central areas, while Stankovic has been active and physical across his appearances. Andy Diouf leads the line and has been the standout forward in this pre-season. His two goals and high shot count make him the most likely source of goals against Milan’s makeshift defensive setup.
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Milan. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict an Inter win in this derby friendly. The stats across the last five matches show a significant gap between the two sides in terms of shots, passing output, and goal-scoring threat. Inter’s 3-5-2 structure under Chivu looks well-drilled, and their recent opponents have been of a higher caliber than those Milan have faced. Camarda is the one player who can change things for Milan, but he needs support from a midfield that has looked inconsistent in pre-season.
Perhaps the most interesting angle here is the BTTS market. Milan have scored in their recent friendlies, and Inter’s defensive record has not been spotless, with a 3-3 draw against Bologna and a 1-1 against both Verona and Manchester City. Both teams finding the net feels like a realistic outcome. Inter to win with both teams scoring is the prediction we back most confidently heading into this Perth showdown.
