Levi Rothermund
Thirteen years after their first meeting, two former champions collide again in Las Vegas — but this time, the styles, stakes, and stage have all changed dramatically
Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon this weekend for the first time in 1,827 days, ending one of the longest and most speculated-about layoffs in UFC history. He headlines UFC 329 against Max Holloway on Saturday, July 11, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas — a rematch 13 years in the making, and one that arrives with far more questions than certainties.
Fight at a glance:
- Card: UFC 329, International Fight Week
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Division: Welterweight (non-title)
- First meeting: August 2013 — McGregor won by unanimous decision
- McGregor’s last fight: July 2021, TKO loss to Dustin Poirier (broken leg)
- Holloway’s last fight: March 2026, decision loss to Charles Oliveira
A Comeback Five Years in the Making
McGregor’s last appearance in the Octagon ended in disaster. He snapped his leg in the closing seconds of round two against Dustin Poirier in July 2021 — his second defeat to the American that year, having also been knocked out by Poirier at UFC 257 six months earlier. He hasn’t recorded a win since demolishing a retired Donald Cerrone back in January 2020.
The years since have been filled with teased returns and false starts, including a scrapped booking against Michael Chandler at UFC 303 in June 2024. That speculation finally ends this weekend, though the challenge in front of McGregor is significant: a five-year layoff, a surgically repaired leg, and an opponent who has never stopped fighting at the sport’s highest level.
Holloway’s Path Has Looked Nothing Like McGregor’s
While McGregor has been rebuilding, Holloway has kept fighting elite competition without pause. He enters UFC 329 off a loss — a one-sided decision defeat to Charles Oliveira in March — and was also stopped for the first time in his career by Ilia Topuria at UFC 308. But those setbacks haven’t dented his standing as one of the promotion’s most dangerous fighters.
His knockout of Justin Gaethje with one second remaining on the clock at UFC 300 remains one of the most replayed finishes in recent UFC history, and his performance against a highly motivated Poirier last July only reinforced his reputation for showing up in the biggest moments. Holloway enters as the clear betting favorite — the question hanging over the entire card is whether McGregor has one more run left in him.
McGregor vs. Holloway: Records Side by Side
| Conor McGregor | Max Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 34 |
| UFC Record | 10-4 | 23-9 |
| Titles Won | Featherweight, Lightweight (first simultaneous 2-division champ) | Featherweight, BMF |
| Title Fights | 5 | 8 |
| Finish Rate | 93% (7% go to decision) | 44% (56% go to decision) |
| Head Strike Accuracy | 70% | 65% |
| Current Ranking | Unranked (inactive) | No. 4 Lightweight |
| Fighting at Welterweight Before? | Yes (beat Cerrone, lost to Diaz) | No — debut |
The numbers tell two different stories. McGregor built his legacy on ending fights early and violently. Holloway built his on outworking almost everyone he’s faced across a full five rounds. That contrast is exactly what makes Saturday’s stylistic matchup so compelling.
The Tactical Puzzle: Power Versus Pace
The central question of UFC 329 comes down to a clash of styles that has troubled plenty of fighters before Holloway ever stepped into this specific matchup.
McGregor’s keys to victory:
- Elite one-punch knockout power, particularly his left hand
- Sharp counter-timing against forward-moving opponents
- Octagon IQ to control range and dictate when exchanges happen
Holloway’s keys to victory:
- Relentless volume and output across all five rounds
- A gas tank that historically breaks opponents down late
- Experience handling long, rangy, technical strikers
For McGregor, the fight likely comes down to closing distance and landing a fight-changing shot early — before ring rust, the layoff, or Holloway’s pace start working against him. For Holloway, it’s about surviving the opening exchanges cleanly and letting volume take over as the rounds pile up.
No title is on the line — McGregor’s inactivity means he currently holds no UFC ranking, while Holloway is ranked fourth in the lightweight division but is stepping up to make this welterweight debut. Still, a win for either man would carry real weight in shaping the rest of 2026’s matchmaking, particularly with Islam Makhachev defending the welterweight title against Ireland’s Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330 the following month.
What McGregor Has Said Ahead of the Comeback
McGregor has struck a confident tone throughout fight week. “I am very grateful for the team I have around me,” he wrote on social media ahead of the bout. “My coaches and training partners, we are all fully tuned in for the challenge at hand and it is a glorious time in our gym. I am better than ever, and I relish the opportunity to once again show my mastery in martial arts to the world.”
Speaking on his Mac Energy YouTube channel, he added more detail on his preparation: “I plan on showing my growth and my improvements in there… Preparation is going very well. We’re living, breathing, and sleeping in the gym, literally. I’m training all day, all night.”
The Rest of the UFC 329 Card
Main card:
| Fight | Division |
|---|---|
| Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway | Welterweight |
| Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis | Lightweight |
| Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista | Bantamweight |
| Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh | Flyweight |
| King Green vs. Terrance McKinney | Lightweight |
Preliminary card:
| Fight | Division |
|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov | Light Heavyweight |
| Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison | Heavyweight |
| Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez | Bantamweight |
| Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka | Featherweight |
The co-main event carries real stakes of its own. Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett looks to bounce back from the first UFC loss of his career against the heavy-handed, well-rounded Benoit Saint Denis — a stern litmus test for the Liverpudlian at lightweight. Elsewhere, Cory Sandhagen meets Mario Bautista at bantamweight, Brandon Royval takes on Lone’er Kavanagh at flyweight, and King Green faces Terrance McKinney in a lightweight clash that promises fireworks. The prelims also feature Robert Whittaker’s move up to light heavyweight and Gable Steveson’s long-awaited UFC debut.
McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Prediction
Layoff or not, McGregor has always come out of the gate hard, and that instinct isn’t likely to change here. He still carries enough power to hurt Holloway, whose chin — once considered close to bulletproof — has been tested and buckled in three of his last four outings. If anything, five years of pent-up frustration should push McGregor toward an even more aggressive opening than usual, since he knows a fight that reaches the later rounds almost certainly favors Holloway’s conditioning over his own.
The flip side is real risk for McGregor as well. His reactions defensively have noticeably slowed in recent appearances, and there’s little reason to expect his chin has held up any better than the rest of him across a five-year absence. If he doesn’t land something significant in the opening minutes, he could find himself exposed and increasingly hittable from round two onward.
Statistical models lean firmly toward Holloway, giving him roughly a 64.5% probability of victory. But the sharper angle here isn’t the moneyline — it’s the total. Both realistic outcomes for this fight point toward a finish rather than a scorecard decision, which makes Under 3.5 rounds the more compelling play than simply backing Holloway to win outright.
What’s Next After UFC 329
Whatever happens Saturday night, UFC 329 marks a genuine turning point — either the beginning of one final McGregor run at the top of the sport, or confirmation that Holloway’s consistency and volume are simply too much for a fighter five years removed from competition. Either outcome reshapes the conversation heading into the rest of 2026, with the welterweight and lightweight pictures both waiting to see how the pieces fall once the final horn sounds in Las Vegas.