The 2025 Giro d’Italia is heating up – and we’re only three stages in. The peloton hasn’t hit the major climbs yet, but the battle for pink, points, and pride is already underway. With the general classification still wide open and the sprinters eager to make the most of their few golden opportunities, Stage 4 promises to be a tactical, high-speed showdown. But before we dive into what’s ahead, let’s rewind to what went down in Stage 3.
Stage 3 Recap: Pink Reclaimed, Fortunato Rises, and Tarling Dares
Stage 3 delivered everything fans love about the Giro — bold attacks, big efforts, and sharp team execution. The day’s drama was kicked off by Joshua Tarling, who launched what could only be described as a brave, bordering on wild, attempt to go for the maglia rosa. The British talent didn’t just tag along in the early break; he powered it. Tarling was the engine behind a six-man group that worked up a healthy three-minute gap on the peloton, signaling serious intent.
However, with Lidl-Trek having clear ambitions and a precise plan, the gap was reeled back in with methodical control. Behind Tarling, there was another moment of aggression when Pello Bilbao and Lorenzo Fortunato tried to ignite the second-category climb. Their move looked like it might trigger something significant, but Lidl-Trek — showing the tactical maturity of a team hunting more than just stages — neutralized it completely.
When the dust settled, it was once again Mads Pedersen’s day. With picture-perfect lead-out work and an aura of confidence, he claimed his second stage victory of the Giro. More importantly, he reclaimed the pink jersey, making it clear that he’s here for more than just sprints. With this win, he also solidified his grasp on the ciclamino jersey as the leader of the points classification.
Meanwhile, in the battle for the blue jersey, Fortunato’s climbing efforts were rewarded — he snatched the lead in the mountains classification from Moniquet. That move might seem minor now, but it could signal a growing ambition from Fortunato as the race heads toward more mountainous terrain.
The GC Picture: Tight Margins, Big Pressure
Three stages in, the general classification remains incredibly compact. A staggering 23 riders are within one minute of the lead. While it’s still early, that kind of density always creates pressure — every second counts, every split matters. It also means the teams riding for GC have to stay alert on every terrain, even on flat sprint days. A poorly timed mechanical or a crash in the final kilometers can cost more than just skin — it can cost a real shot at pink.
Pedersen’s return to pink is symbolic. It’s not every day a sprinter wears the leader’s jersey twice in a Grand Tour. But the way Lidl-Trek controlled the race hints at deeper ambitions. They’re not just racking up stage wins — they’re managing the race itself. That’s something to keep an eye on, especially with tougher stages looming.
Stage 4 Overview: Flat, Fast, and Deceptively Tricky
Stage 4 spans 187 kilometers and is pegged as the first classic bunch sprint of the Giro. On the surface, it looks straightforward — a flat stage tailor-made for the sprinters. But look closer, and it becomes clear that this isn’t just about raw speed. The finale winds through city streets, with tight bends, roundabouts, and narrow lanes. In short: it’s a technical minefield.
The road book says “flat,” but the twisty urban layout in the final five kilometers means it’s going to be all about positioning. Lead-out trains won’t just be helpful — they’ll be decisive. Expect teams to fight aggressively for the front with ten kilometers to go, with elbows flying and nerves jangling. This isn’t just about sprinting; it’s about navigating chaos.
It’s also a finish with history. This town has hosted the Giro twice before, and both times the stage was won by an Italian sprint legend. Mario Cipollini took the honors in 1998 and again in 2003, back when bunch sprints were a national spectacle. That historical weight only adds fuel to the fire for Italian teams desperate to make a mark.
Stage 2 Betting Odds
🏆Best odds for betting on Giro d’Italia 2025 available at Campeon Bet!🏆
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kooij, Olav | 2.75 |
| Pedersen, Mads | 6.00 |
| Bennett, Sam | 7.40 |
| Fretin, Milan | 7.40 |
| Moschetti, Matteo | 9.00 |
| Magnier, Paul | 12.00 |
| Groves, Kaden | 13.00 |
| Thijssen, Gerben | 19.00 |
| Zijlaard, Maikel | 23.00 |
| Van Aert, Wout | 26.00 |
| Van Uden, Casper | 35.00 |
The Favorites: All Eyes on Olav Kooij
At this point in the race, there’s a clear hierarchy forming among the sprinters. The betting markets have made their call: Olav Kooij (2.75 odds via CampeonBet) is the man to beat. And it’s hard to argue with that. The Visma-Lease a Bike rider has looked sharp and confident, and his top-end speed is arguably unmatched in this field. But in a chaotic finale like this, being the fastest isn’t always enough. He’ll need a clean run-in, something his team has been reliably delivering throughout the season. If Kooij sees daylight with 200 meters to go, it’s hard to imagine anyone coming around him.
But it wouldn’t be the Giro without a few curveballs. Sam Bennett (7.40 odds via CampeonBet), now riding for Decathlon AG2R, brings experience, timing, and a nose for gaps. He’s not as flashy as he once was, but that might be exactly what makes him dangerous — he knows how to pick his moments. In a hectic city sprint, that savvy could prove invaluable.
Then there’s Matteo Moschetti (9.00 odds via CampeonBet), the wildcard from Q36.5. He’s flown under the radar this year, but the results are there. Second at Nokere Koerse, third at Scheldeprijs behind Merlier and Philipsen — the form is undeniable. If his team can position him well, he could spring a surprise and steal a podium.
Tactics and Lead-Out Dynamics
This isn’t just a race between fast legs — it’s a test of team orchestration. The final five kilometers will be a lead-out chess match, and only the most cohesive trains will survive. Visma, Lidl-Trek, and AG2R all have the firepower to take control, but timing will be everything. Go too early, and you risk getting swarmed. Wait too long, and you never get clean air.
The key moment will likely come with two kilometers to go. That’s where the road narrows and begins to twist like a snake. Whoever leads out of that corner has a massive advantage — maybe even an unassailable one. Expect full-on sprint trains dropping the hammer, and any hesitation will cost dearly.
It’s also worth noting that this kind of finish increases the chance of crashes. Riders will be desperate for wheels, bumping shoulders, and taking risks they might not normally take. That chaos makes it even harder to call.
Stage 4 Prediciton
There’s no escaping it – this feels like this stage belongs to Olav Kooij’s. He has the form, the top speed, and the team to deliver him to the final corner. But with so many variables, we’re leaning toward a podium that balances raw speed with racecraft.
our take – Kooij for the win. He’s simply too good to overlook. Behind him, I think Matteo Moschetti finally gets the recognition his spring form deserves with a strong second-place finish. Rounding out the podium, Sam Bennett gets his Giro up and running with a smart, experienced ride to third.
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