The 2025 Tour de France has already delivered fireworks, and stage 10—falling on Bastille Day—promises to intensify the drama. With 4,400 meters of climbing and a relentless series of short, sharp ascents, this is a day that could upend strategies and rattle nerves in the peloton. Seven categorized climbs and an undulating profile will test both breakaway artists and general classification (GC) contenders to their limits.
Rolling Chaos with a Brutal Finale
Stage 10 is not defined by altitude but by attrition. A relentless rollercoaster of climbs—none overly long or steep on their own—will collectively drain the legs before riders even reach the final showdown. The penultimate climb (5km at 6%) tops out 10 kilometers from the finish and drops into a technical descent, funneling straight into a sting-in-the-tail final climb.
This final effort, 3.3 kilometers averaging 8%, rises through a narrow valley road—exposed and demanding. It’s a climb made for pure legs, where tactics fade and form speaks loudest. With fatigue deep in the muscles, even modest gradients can rip open time gaps.
Stage 10 Odds
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| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pogacar, Tadej | 2.75 |
| Healy, Ben | 8.00 |
| Vingegaard, Jonas | 10.00 |
| Martinez, Lenny | 15.00 |
| Gregoire, Romain | 17.00 |
| Storer, Michael | 21.00 |
| Powless, Neilson | 23.00 |
| Evenepoel, Remco | 29.00 |
| O’Connor, Ben | 29.00 |
| Alaphilippe, Julian | 29.00 |
| Jorgenson, Matteo | 29.00 |
| Gall, Felix | 35.00 |
| Simmons, Quinn | 35.00 |
| Onley, Oscar | 40.00 |
| Vauquelin, Kevin | 40.00 |
| Paret-Peintre, Aurelien | 40.00 |
| Castrillo, Pablo | 40.00 |
| Rodriguez Martin, Cristian | 40.00 |
| Van Eetvelt, Lennert | 40.00 |
| Madouas, Valentin | 40.00 |
| Woods, Michael | 50.00 |
| Skjelmose Jensen, Mattias | 70.00 |
Weather Report: Headwinds, Crosswinds & High Stakes
Cooler temperatures will be welcomed after a scorching first week, but a moderate western headwind on most climbs could complicate attacks. On the final ramp, a may favor strong riders with savvy positioning. This isn’t the weather for all-out assaults, but it won’t stop fireworks either—especially not on Bastille Day.
Team Tactics: Visma vs UAE – A Final Punch Before the Alps
Team Visma enter this stage with urgency. It’s their last real chance before the high mountains to apply pressure on Tadej Pogačar. Expect the Dutch team to light the race up early—Wout van Aert and Tiesj Benoot likely to animate the breakaway, while Matteo Jorgenson could serve as a wild card in the chaos. Visma will hope to isolate Pogačar by overloading UAE’s weakened support, especially following João Almeida’s withdrawal.
Jonas Vingegaard will bide his time in the peloton, saving energy for the finale. If the plan works, he’ll have teammates up the road ready to bridge. Stage 6 offered a glimpse of this blueprint. Expect a similar gamble here.
Meanwhile, UAE Team Emirates need to survive the first hour without conceding control. Keeping Jorgenson out of the break will be key. If Pogačar reaches the final climb with teammates around him, he might even look to gain time—a psychological statement before the true Alpine battles begin.
GC Riders: Grit Over Glamour
This stage won’t crown the Tour winner—but it might create separation among the outsiders. Riders like Ben Healy, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, and Guillaume Martin will be eyeing the breakaway, perhaps even eyeing yellow in Healy’s case. Others—Mattias Skjelmose, Enric Mas, Tobias Johannessen—could emerge in the final if the big names hesitate.
Dark horses like Florian Lipowitz and Felix Gall are riding stronger than their current GC positions suggest. Don’t be surprised if one of them climbs into the spotlight here. Meanwhile, Remco Evenepoel and Oscar Onley will likely stick to the wheels, playing the long game.
Breakaway Dreams: Power Needed, Explosiveness Optional
This isn’t a classic mountain stage, but make no mistake: only elite climbers with endurance will survive the selection and fight for the win. The final ascent may not be explosive, but its positioning makes it decisive. Riders will arrive already depleted—this is survival of the fittest.
Among those to watch for in the move: Romain Grégoire, Ben O’Connor, Neilson Powless, Valentin Madouas, Steff Cras, Alex Baudin, Quinn Simmons, Michael Storer, Alexey Lutsenko, Lenny Martínez, and Harold Tejada. All possess the mix of resilience and climbing ability that this unique profile demands.
Final Thoughts
Bastille Day often brings fire to the Tour—and this profile delivers the kindling. With weather adding unpredictability and two teams on a tactical collision course, Stage 10 could be the moment where contenders falter, outsiders rise, and alliances are born in the breakaway chaos.
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