Liam Duckstein
Stage 10 delivered an eventful day of racing as several riders attempted to force their way into the breakaway, though UAE Team Emirates kept the race under control throughout. Tadej Pogacar did not need to win the stage but showed clear intent to do so. Richard Carapaz launched an early attack on the Col de Portet, building a gap of over a minute on the peloton before UAE responded. The gap narrowed to a minute and 15 seconds as UAE opened the pace-setting, with Adam Yates working on the front before Pogacar himself attacked with a kilometre remaining, a move nobody was able to answer.
The stage was also marked by crashes involving Harper, Pidcock, and Jorgenson, while Merlier endured a difficult day after being distanced from the start, though he did make the time cut. In the general classification, Jonas Vingegaard lost a handful of seconds to the other podium contenders, while Tobias Foss Johannessen also shipped time and is now expected to shift his focus toward stage-hunting. In the points classification, Lidl-Trek controlled the run-in to the intermediate sprint, where their rider took maximum points ahead of Kooij, Girmay, and Philipsen. In the mountains competition, Valentin Paret-Peintre used his pre-stage interview to signal his intention to actively pursue polka dot points from this point in the race onward, though on the day itself it was Carapaz, via his solo breakaway, who made the biggest gains on the mountains leaderboard.
Stage 11: The Route and Its Challenges
Stage 11 runs 161.3 kilometres from Vichy to Nevers and is built for the sprinters. The route carries a ProfileScore of 32 and around 1,107 vertical metres over the full distance, figures that place it firmly among the flatter stages of this Tour, with a final-kilometre gradient of 0.0 percent confirming a flat run to the line. There are no categorised climbs positioned to disrupt the sprinters’ teams late in the stage, meaning the bunch is expected to stay largely together into the finale.
The key complication is not gradient but geometry. The approach into Nevers looks straightforward on paper, but with 350 to 400 metres remaining, the road runs directly onto a roundabout before the finish. This feature is likely to be the decisive factor in how the sprint plays out, as positioning through that final turn will matter as much as raw speed in determining who has the cleanest run to the line.
Source: procyclingstats.com
Favourites for the Stage
Tim Merlier of Soudal-Quick-Step is the clear favourite heading into Stage 11. A number of other sprinters and fast finishers are worth watching across the bunch:
- Tim Merlier – Soudal-Quick-Step
- Dylan Godon – Ineos
- Ackermann – Jayco
- Mads Pedersen – Lidl-Trek
- Phil Bauhaus – Bahrain Victorious
- Amaury Capiot – Astana
- Arne Marit – Lotto Dstny
- Milan Fretin – Cofidis
- Jasper Philipsen – Alpecin-Deceuninck
- Dylan Groenewegen – Decathlon
- Biniam Girmay – Intermarché-Circus-Wanty
- Soren Waerenskjold – Uno-X
- Fernando Gaviria – Caja Rural
Looking at how these riders have performed across the sprint stages so far this Tour, Merlier, Capiot, Girmay, and Philipsen stand out as the most consistent finishers. In terms of star ratings, Merlier is the sole four-star pick for the stage. Groenewegen and Girmay both receive three stars. Capiot and Philipsen follow with two stars each, while Waerenskjold, Pedersen, Fretin, Marit, and Ackermann round out the one-star tier.
Betting Odds for Stage 11
The betting markets for the Stage 11 winner broadly reflect the star ratings above, with Merlier priced as the outright favourite across all three books listed below.
| Selection | Stake | BC.Game | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Merlier | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.80 |
| Olav Kooij | 4.50 | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| Biniam Girmay | 9.00 | 7.00 | 5.50 |
| Jasper Philipsen | 8.00 | 9.00 | 5.50 |
| Max Kanter | 15.00 | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| Soren Waerenskjold | 29.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 |
| Mads Pedersen | 51.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 |
| Jonas Abrahamsen | 67.00 | 67.00 | 67.00 |
| Fernando Gaviria | 100.00 | 100.00 | 51.00 |
| Milan Fretin | 100.00 | 100.00 | 41.00 |
| Mathieu van der Poel | 51.00 | 100.00 | 67.00 |
| Huub Artz | 100.00 | 100.00 | 81.00 |
| Pavel Bittner | 100.00 | 51.00 | 41.00 |
| Kasper Asgreen | 67.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
Prediction
The pick for Stage 11 is Tim Merlier to complete a hat-trick of stage wins, ahead of Dylan Groenewegen and Biniam Girmay in second and third. This top three lines up closely with both the star ratings and the shape of the finish: Merlier’s four-star rating and status as clear market favourite reflect his consistency across the sprint stages so far, while Groenewegen and Girmay’s three-star ratings support their inclusion on the podium. With no late climbs to thin out the peloton, the finish is expected to come down to a full bunch sprint, where the roundabout inside the final 400 metres could reward whichever team navigates the positioning battle most cleanly.
With another flat finish now behind the peloton, attention turns to how the sprint teams regroup before the terrain changes again later in the race. The general classification picture remains unsettled following the losses suffered by Vingegaard and Foss Johannessen on Stage 10, and the points and mountains competitions continue to be actively contested, with Paret-Peintre having signalled his intent to chase polka dot points in the stages ahead.
Summary
- Distance: 161.3 km (Vichy to Nevers)
- Terrain type: Flat, sprint stage
- Elevation gain: Approximately 1,107 vertical metres (ProfileScore 32, 0.0% gradient in the final kilometre)
- Key feature: Roundabout located 350–400 m from the finish line
- Conditions: No categorised late climbs; finish expected to be contested by the full peloton
- Favourite for the win: Tim Merlier (preview pick and betting market favourite)
- Predicted podium: 1. Tim Merlier, 2. Dylan Groenewegen, 3. Biniam Girmay