The last Grand Tour of the season is almost here. On August 23, the 2025 Vuelta a España opens in Italy before the procession to Madrid on September 14. With Tadej Pogačar skipping the race after a fourth Tour de France, the spotlight swings to Jonas Vingegaard and his ambition to pull on red for the first time. The Danish leader of Team Visma | Lease a Bike is the clear favourite, but the mountain‑heavy route offers no soft days. A sharp group of GC threats is ready to press him at every summit and time check.
Also read: 2025 Vuelta a España Route and Stages Preview
1) João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates – XRG)
Why he’s dangerous: supreme steadiness over three weeks, cool tactics, and a high‑end time trial. Before his Tour crash, Almeida swept three straight WorldTour stage races—Itzulia Basque Country (two stages), Tour de Romandie, and Tour de Suisse (three stages). The late Valladolid ITT (Stage 18) suits him, especially after Vingegaard’s issues in the flat chrono at Caen in July. If fully recovered, he’s the rider most likely to flip the script.
2) Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates – XRG)
Why he’s dangerous: proven Vuelta ceiling and punch on steep, high‑altitude climbs. Ayuso placed 3rd in 2022 at just 19 and 4th in 2023 behind the Visma armada. After leaving the Giro with injury, he returned sharp at Circuito de Getxo, finishing second while helping Isaac del Toro win. On home roads, expect aggressive mountain accelerations and full crowd tailwind.
3) Richard Carapaz (EF Education–EasyPost)
Why he’s dangerous: race instincts and resilience. The Locomotora del Carchi is a Giro champion (2019) and Vuelta runner‑up (2020). He came close again this spring at the Giro before a late sting from Simon Yates on the Finestre, still salvaging third overall. With three Vuelta stage wins and a team built to support bold moves, Carapaz will hunt any opening on chaotic mountain days.
4) Giulio Ciccone (Lidl–Trek)
Why he’s dangerous: elite climbing touch and surging momentum. After leaving the Giro early, Ciccone roared back with Clásica de San Sebastián and a stage at the Vuelta a Burgos (Lagunas de Neila). His 2025 ledger also reads: 2nd at Liège–Bastogne–Liège, 4th at Tour of the Alps, 2nd at the UAE Tour. At 30, he looks ready to trade stage raids for a full GC tilt, especially on long, steep days.
5) Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)
Why he’s dangerous: three‑week consistency and an attacking team. Gall’s breakthrough fifth at the 2025 Tour de France showed robust mountain endurance and composure. Decathlon AG2R’s high‑tempo style fits his instincts—expect early moves that force rivals to chase. A podium is a logical target, but sustained pressure could turn him into a late‑race problem for Visma.
Verdict: Vingegaard’s Vuelta to Win — or Lose
With Pogačar absent, Vingegaard enters as the outright pick. Yet La Vuelta rarely follows a tidy script. Almeida’s balance, Ayuso’s spark, Carapaz’s guile, Ciccone’s form, and Gall’s steady rise ensure the red jersey will be contested to the final weekend. Deliver, and Vingegaard underlines his status as the stage‑race benchmark; hesitate, and one of these five will be ready to take Madrid.