Stage 4 of the 2025 Vuelta a España promises uncertainty and intrigue. As the peloton leaves Italy and enters French territory, the riders face a route that invites chaos from the start. Though the finale in Voiron suggests a sprint finish, the opening climbs in the Alps could give rise to a breakaway that just might survive.
Route Analysis: Alpine Ascents and a Rapid Descent
The day begins in Susa, with the flag dropping just shy of the Colle delle Finestre. What follows is a demanding opening hour, kicking off with a 5.7-kilometre ascent at 5.6%. It’s quickly followed by an 8.4-kilometre climb averaging 5.9%. These efforts, packed into the early kilometers, are enough to shred the peloton and allow a dangerous group to escape.
Once over the border into France, the road rises again toward the Col du Lautaret. Although not especially steep—averaging 4% over 14 kilometres—it climbs above 2,000 metres, and altitude will sap the strength of even the toughest sprinters. Riders will then plunge down more than 1,800 metres of elevation in the second half of the stage. That long descent and flat approach mean any time gaps from earlier climbs could be tough to close.
Stage 4 Odds
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mads Pedersen | 2.75 |
| Jasper Philipsen | 7.00 |
| Ethan Vernon | 8.00 |
| Orluis Aular | 17.00 |
| Filippo Ganna | 21.00 |
| Ben Turner | 26.00 |
| Casper van Uden | 26.00 |
| Nico Denz | 29.00 |
| Fabio Christen | 34.00 |
| Tom Pidcock | 34.00 |
| Andrea Bagioli | 41.00 |
| Marco Frigo | 41.00 |
| Bryan Coquard | 51.00 |
| Jake Stewart | 51.00 |
Finish Line: Technical, Uphill, and Tiring
If the race does come back together, the finale in Voiron won’t be straightforward. The last 300 metres come after a sharp turn, followed by an uphill drag at 4%. It’s a finish that stretches out the group and dulls pure speed. Positioning and punch matter more than raw sprint power here.
Adding to the complexity is the weather. Riders will transition from cool Alpine air into a hot valley finish, with temperatures expected to soar into the 30s—yet another test after a draining day.
The Contenders: Pedersen the Man to Beat?
Mads Pedersen heads into Stage 4 as a top favourite. The punchy finish plays to his strengths, and Lidl-Trek will likely work to control the race. Pedersen showed strong legs today, only undone by a slightly tougher-than-expected finale. With a suitable profile and momentum on his side, the Dane will be difficult to beat if it comes to a sprint.
Jasper Philipsen, on the other hand, struggled in today’s stage, confirming doubts about his early form. The climbs could test him again here, but Alpecin-Deceuninck may still back a bunch sprint. The uphill kick doesn’t favour his usual top-end speed, but Philipsen’s class keeps him in contention—if he can hang on.
What to Expect?
It’s a stage balanced on a knife’s edge. The climbs tempt attackers, but the long descent and flat finale make control possible. Will a breakaway finally have its day in the Vuelta? Or will Pedersen and Philipsen bring it down to a power-packed drag race?
One thing is certain: Stage 4 will make the GC teams sweat, test the legs of the sprinters, and keep fans guessing until the final meters in Voiron.