Stage 10 of the Vuelta a España 2025 marks the return to racing after the first rest day, and it does so with a familiar test: another summit finish, this time atop Larra Belagua. While Torstein Træen starts the day in red, it’s Jonas Vingegaard’s mindset that may ultimately dictate the narrative of this stage.
Déjà Vu in the Pyrenees
The peloton heads back into the Pyrenees — though they never strayed far. Stage 10 mirrors Stage 9 in both profile and outcome potential. The route is mostly flat until the final climb, placing emphasis squarely on the summit showdown. Despite four categorized climbs on paper, none are likely to shape the day’s breakaway or influence GC contenders until the finale.
Larra Belagua, last used in 2023, is a steady 9.3km at 6.3%, with most ramps hovering around 7%. Its twisty switchbacks and consistent gradients offer a tactical playground, though the lack of steep ramps and a flattening final kilometre may dampen chances for decisive gaps — unless the fireworks start early.
Stage 10 Odds
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jonas Vingegaard | 3.50 |
| Juan Ayuso | 7.00 |
| Jay Vine | 9.00 |
| Tom Pidcock | 13.00 |
| Giulio Ciccone | 17.00 |
| Joao Almeida | 17.00 |
| Marco Frigo | 21.00 |
| Pablo Castrillo | 26.00 |
| Antonio Tiberi | 29.00 |
| David Gaudu | 29.00 |
| Marc Soler | 29.00 |
| Bruno Armirail | 34.00 |
| Harold Tejada | 34.00 |
| Santiago Buitrago | 34.00 |
| Eddie Dunbar | 41.00 |
| Felix Gall | 41.00 |
What Will Vingegaard Do?
Team Visma are unlikely to chase the breakaway unless there’s real incentive. In truth, Vingegaard doesn’t need to attack. He already delivered a psychological blow at Valdezcaray, showing he can strike without warning. If he chooses to defend and ride conservatively, Træen could well keep red for another day.
But if the Dane senses weakness — or simply wants to test João Almeida again — this terrain could offer just enough leverage. Vingegaard’s explosivity gives him the edge on these steady gradients, and with Almeida’s reactive style and limited punch, the GC battle could ignite once more.
Can UAE Counter?
UAE Team Emirates have decisions to make. Hunting a stage win with Jay Vine or Juan Ayuso is viable, but the priority has to be protecting Almeida. The Portuguese sits where you’d expect — consistent and solid — but vulnerable to accelerations. Should Vingegaard launch another explosive move, Almeida must respond instantly, or risk slipping from contention.
Outsiders and Opportunists
If the breakaway forms late and is modest in quality — as on Stage 9 — then a small group sprint could emerge. That opens the door for Tom Pidcock, who has shown sharp form and thrives in these finales. If the GC riders hesitate, he could strike.
Others to watch include Giulio Ciccone, potentially able to survive and thrive in an uphill sprint, and the consistent climbers Felix Gall, Jai Hindley, Giulio Pellizzari, and Egan Bernal.
The Breakaway Contenders
The breakaway dynamic hasn’t shifted — nor has the terrain. With the profile virtually cloned from Stage 9, the same rider archetypes will target the win. Expect names like Michal Kwiatkowski, Victor Langellotti, Wout Poels, Carlos Verona, Andrea Bagioli, and Jan Hirt to feature again. Add to that list Javier Romo, Chris Harper, Harold Tejada, Harold Martín López, Marco Frigo, Bruno Armirail, and Markel Beloki.
Conclusion: A Stage of Mind Games
Stage 10 may look predictable on paper — a mirrored route, a known summit, and rested legs — but that’s what makes it a tactical conundrum. Will Vingegaard press for more gains, or does he bide his time? Can Almeida respond, or will another outsider steal the day? When the road tilts upwards in Larra Belagua, it won’t just be about watts — it’ll be about will.
Stay with us at TipsGG as we follow every twist of the Vuelta’s second week. The red jersey may not change hands today — but the tone of the race surely might.