Date: Tuesday, May 27
Distance: 203km
Start Location: Piazzola sul Brenta
Finish Location: San Valentino di Brentonico
Start Time: 11:20 CEST
Estimated Finish: 17:14 CEST
The Route: From the Plains to the Peaks
The peloton leaves behind the tranquil flatlands of Piazzola sul Brenta and dives headfirst into the Alpine grind. While tourists meander along the Treviso-Ostiglia cycle path, the Giro riders face the race’s first five-star mountain stage — 4,900m of climbing packed into 203km, including four categorized climbs and a summit finish. It’s the second most vertiginous stage of the entire Giro, and arguably the most pivotal.
The first 65km gently roll upward, setting the stage for a deceptive opener. The Carbonare climb (12.9km at 4.6%) might not strike fear into many, but it primes the legs for what’s to come. After a descent and an uncategorized rise, the action ramps up on Monte Candriai — 10.1km at a stinging 7.6%, where the peloton could splinter if teams attack early.
The Decisive Middle: Santa Barbara’s Brutality
Straight after Candriai comes the monstrous Santa Barbara climb. It rises mercilessly: 9km above 9% gradient before a milder 3km stretch at 6.5%. This is where the big moves could start. With only a steep descent and one final ascent left, GC hopefuls might gamble here to isolate rivals.
Back in the Giro spotlight for the first time since 1970 — when Eddy Merckx triumphed — San Valentino di Brentonico is the climax. The climb is unpredictable: 7km at just under 7%, a 2km breather, and then a nasty 6km grind at nearly 9%, topped off by a punishing final 3km over 9%. If legs are lost here, so are dreams of pink.
Stage 16 Odds & Favorites
🏆Best odds for betting on Giro d’Italia 2025 available at Campeon Bet!🏆
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Del Toro Romero, Isaac | 3.25 |
| Ayuso Pesquera, Juan | 6.40 |
| Carapaz, Richard | 7.40 |
| Roglic, Primoz | 17.00 |
| Poels, Wouter | 19.00 |
| Bernal, Egan | 21.00 |
| Pellizzari, Giulio | 21.00 |
| Storer, Michael | 23.00 |
| Quintana, Nairo | 23.00 |
| Poole, Max | 35.00 |
| Verona Quintanilla, Carlos | 35.00 |
| Vine, Jay | 35.00 |
| Yates, Simon | 35.00 |
| Bardet, Romain | 40.00 |
| Fortunato, Lorenzo | 40.00 |
| Pidcock, Thomas | 40.00 |
Stage 16 leaves nowhere to hide. Juan Ayuso and Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates) will likely be aggressive, capitalizing on their late-stage punch. Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) showed weakness on Stage 15, but summit finishes have always been his forte.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) thrives in week three — expect fireworks. Simon Yates (Jayco-Alula), currently second in GC, is peaking at the right time. Meanwhile, Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) continues to attack and inspire. Keep an eye on Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) and home-hero Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), who’s shown resilience despite earlier setbacks.
Also flying under the radar is Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling) — a pure climber who could surprise if the stage implodes late.
If the GC riders hesitate, the break could bite. Climbers like Romain Bardet, Wout Poels, Pello Bilbao, Louis Meintjes, and David Gaudu could all animate the race from the front.
For mountain points, expect Lorenzo Fortunato to be active, although he may run dry before the finale. Other possible aggressors include Rémy Rochas, Marco Frigo, Filippo Zana, Luke Plapp, Nairo Quintana, Georg Steinhauser, and Carlos Verona — all dangerous when given freedom.
Prediction: Carapaz to Strike
This stage has Richard Carapaz written all over it. With a tactical brain, third-week stamina, and a point to prove, we expect him to surge on San Valentino and claw back time in the GC fight.
Don’t miss it — this could be the turning point of the Giro.
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