- Date: Saturday, October 11
- Distance: ~241 km
- Elevation gain: ~4,400 m
- Start / Finish: Como → Bergamo
- Race hours: ~10:55 CET → ~16:45 CET
This year’s edition mirrors the 2023 route in nearly every respect. It’s a brutal day in the saddle — the kind of Monument that picks apart even the strongest legs before the final uphill dash.
Route & Key Climbs
The race opens with ~30 km of rolling roads to warm up the peloton before hitting the first climb: Madonna del Ghisallo (8.8 km at ~3.9 %). It’s the easier side of the ascent, but comes with heavy symbolism — a chapel full of cycling lore, a flame in memory of fallen riders, and proximity to the Museo del Ciclismo.
Once over the Ghisallo and descending, the riders face ~45.8 km of flat-ish terrain before hitting San Gottardo (2.7 km) — a preamble to the real test: the Roncola. The Roncola spans 9.4 km at ~6.6 % average, but hides a brutal middle section of 5.3 km at ~8.2 %, with spikes up to 17 %.
After a gentler climb to Berbenno (6.8 km at ~4.8 %), the race really gets serious in the second half. The Passo della Crocetta leads the charge (about 11 km, averaging ~6.1–7 %) and is often seen as a launchpad for elite moves. Then comes Zambla Alta — 9.5 km, with the last ~3 km averaging ~7 %.
The penultimate climb is Passo di Ganda (9.2 km at ~7.3 %), with pitches touching 15 % near its summit — a demanding test, particularly at this stage of the race.
Finally, Largo Colle Aperto (1.3 km, with >10 % ramps and 200m of cobbles) provides a last sting before a relatively smooth final kilometer: a left bend at ~750 m to go, then a straight 600 m dash to the finish.
This profile rewards riders who can combine climbing strength with descending skill, race craft, and timing.
Il Lombardia 2025 Odds
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | 1.14 |
| Remco Evenepoel | 7.50 |
| Isaac Del Toro | 15.00 |
| Thomas Pidcock | 17.00 |
| Adam Yates | 29.00 |
| Paul Seixas | 29.00 |
| Primož Roglič | 34.00 |
| Ben Healy | 41.00 |
| Mattias Skjelmose Jensen | 41.00 |
| Lenny Martinez | 67.00 |
| Richard Carapaz | 67.00 |
| Cristian Scaroni | 81.00 |
| Egan Bernal | 81.00 |
| Jay Vine | 81.00 |
| Jon Izagirre | 101.00 |
Favourites & Dark Horses
Tadej Pogačar
He is the obvious center of attention. Four straight wins in Lombardia have made him its master in recent years. He enters this race not just to win — but to make history. Another win would tie Fausto Coppi’s record of five Lombardia victories. His form is sharp: a dominant solo win at Tre Valli Varesine is the latest evidence that he’s peaking.
In a sport where form and confidence matter, Pogačar holds both in abundance.
Remco Evenepoel
The most likely challenger. He’s been second behind Pogačar in Lombardia more than once, and his all-round ability (climbing + time trialing) keeps him in the conversation. Evenepoel tried to follow Pogačar at the European Championships but couldn’t match his acceleration — a telling sign of how difficult it will be to outgun him.
Richard Carapaz
A former Grand Tour winner, Carapaz has the pedigree to surprise. He’s capable of a deep-range attack and may make life difficult for both Pogačar and Evenepoel. His 2023 result (8th place) shows he’s not without experience on this course.
Primož Roglič
Consistently strong at this race but never triumphant. He’ll come in with ambition — 2025 could be his moment, though it’s a tall order.
Others to Watch
- Tom Pidcock — new to Lombardia, but lethal on descents and punchy climbs.
- Paul Seixas, Mattias Skjelmose — strong legs, upside if things go tactical.
- Isaac del Toro — a UAE teammate who might play a supporting role that surprises if he’s allowed to ride free.
If Pogačar rides away, the fight will probably shift to who lines up behind him on the podium.
Tactics & Race Dynamics
Given the selective nature of this route, early breakaways are unlikely to survive deep into the race. The decisive moves are more likely between Crocetta, Zambla Alta, and Ganda — perhaps even on the final ramps of Colle Aperto.
Pogačar may bide his time, letting chasers expend energy, then make a move on Ganda or even on the descent into Bergamo — as he has done before. Positioning into Colle Aperto will be critical. The cobbles, steep pitches, narrow sections — all can punish the inattentive.
If Pogačar is human (which he undoubtedly is), a soft day, mechanical issues, or a miscalculation could allow Evenepoel or another opportunist to ambush. But realistically: it’s hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t finish first or second.
Weather & Conditions
Forecasts suggest favorable conditions: dry, mostly sunny, daytime highs near 20 °C, with cooler ceilings (around 15 °C) in the high mountains. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected.
The dry roads will favor aggressive descending and reduce the risk of crashes or forced caution. Cooler air at altitude will make later climbs sting harder — no hiding in the bunch when fatigue sets in.
Prediction & What to Watch
Everything points to Tadej Pogačar claiming a fifth Lombardia win — and in doing so, he would match Coppi’s all-time record. For now, writing him off feels like wishful thinking.
Remco Evenepoel is the most credible threat. If Pogačar has an off day, or the race fractures early, he may find room to exploit. Carapaz and Roglič will press for opportunities, and Pidcock is one to watch in aggressive moves or descents.
What to keep an eye on:
- When and where Pogačar attacks — Crocetta? Ganda? On descent?
- How Evenepoel responds — if he follows, the gap to others may become decisive.
- Breakaway groups — could a bold rider sneak away in the mid-to-late climbs?
- Final positioning into Colle Aperto — any hesitation or slipups there could cost dearly.
Want me to build a minute-by-minute race scenario or a predicted podium (with time gaps)? I can draft that next if you like.