Sofia Quijada
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Independiente Rivadavia welcome Atletico Tucuman to Estadio Bautista Gargantini for a Copa Argentina quarterfinal that pits a Primera Division high-flyer against a mid-table side chasing a rare trophy run. Rivadavia sit inside the top 100 of the World Clubs Ranking this year, a huge gap over Tucuman’s 367th spot, and that quality difference shows in their domestic numbers: 22 wins from 37 league games against Tucuman’s 11 from 30. A single knockout leg means anything can happen, but the form gap here is wide.
Watch Alex Arce up top for Rivadavia, he has scored 4 goals in his last 5 appearances and looks the sharpest finisher on the pitch. For Tucuman, Lautaro Godoy pulls the strings from the number 10 role with 1 goal and 2 assists in the same span, he is the one player capable of unlocking a stubborn Rivadavia backline on his own.
Hot stat: Arce has been directly involved in 5 of Rivadavia’s 10 goals across their last five matches, that’s half the team’s entire attacking output from one man.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Argentina 2026, Quarterfinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Bautista Gargantini, Mendoza |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Independiente Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman prediction
We back Independiente Rivadavia to win this quarterfinal. Their attacking output has been the difference: 10 goals in the last five matches against Tucuman’s 4, and their 59% win rate in league play this year dwarfs Tucuman’s 37%. Playing at a ground close to their own base in Mendoza only adds to the edge. Perhaps Tucuman’s unbeaten run of four games without a loss gives them a psychological lift, but against a side scoring at this rate, that streak looks fragile.
Rivadavia commit fouls at a higher rate, 64 in their last five games against Tucuman’s 53, and pick up more cards, 15 yellows to Tucuman’s 9, which points to a physical, front-foot approach that can occasionally leave gaps at the back. Tucuman, by contrast, defend with two red cards shown in the same stretch, a sign of a side sometimes forced into desperate challenges when overrun. Rivadavia also completed close to 1,700 passes across their last five outings compared to Tucuman’s 1,532, giving them clearly more control of possession, something that should count heavily in a single-leg cup tie.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Alex Arce to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Independiente Rivadavia arrive on the back of a 4-3 win over Aldosivi, a scrappy, high-scoring affair that showed both their attacking sharpness and a defense that can be got at. Before that they beat River Plate’s shadow squad narrowly and thumped Racing Club 3-1, results that confirm a team scoring goals in bunches. Their only blemishes in this stretch were a 1-3 loss to River Plate and a goalless draw with Independiente, both against sides with better overall league standing. Three wins, a draw and a loss in the last five paints a team that is dangerous going forward but not fully watertight defensively, exactly the profile that should trouble a Tucuman side low on goals of its own.
Atletico Tucuman’s last match ended in a 1-2 loss to River Plate, following a 2-1 win over Racing Club and back to back 0-0 draws against Belgrano and Instituto de Cordoba. They opened this run with a 1-0 win over Estudiantes Rio Cuarto. That sequence, loss, win, draw, draw, win, shows a side that grinds out results rather than overwhelms opponents, scoring only 4 goals across those five matches. Falcioni’s men have not lost consecutive games in this stretch, but their attack has looked blunt, which is the main reason we lean against them finding the net here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Independiente Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Independiente Rivadavia the favourite
- Moneyline Independiente Rivadavia 2.10 | Atletico Tucuman 3.50
- Draw 3.00
Bookmakers give Rivadavia a 43% implied chance of winning, well clear of Tucuman’s 25%, with the draw sitting at 32%. Those numbers line up with the season-long form gap between both sides, Rivadavia’s 59% domestic win rate against Tucuman’s 37% justifies the price gap we see across the market. We rate Rivadavia as fair value at around 2.10, especially with home comforts and a sharper finisher in Arce leading the line.
Possible Starting Lineups
Independiente Rivadavia possible starting eleven
- GK: Nicolás Bolcato
- DF: Iván Villalba, Leonard Costa, Alejo Osella, Alex Vigo
- MF: Tomas Bottari, Jose Ignacio Florentin, Gonzalo Rios, Luis Sequeira, Leonel Bucca
- FW: Alex Arce
Berti has kept faith with the 4-1-4-1 shape used in his last five matches, and every player listed here started all or almost all of those games. Florentin offers the creative spark from midfield with 2 goals and an assist, while Bottari sits deeper to shield the back four. Arce leads the line alone up front and is clearly the man to watch given his scoring form.
Atletico Tucuman possible starting eleven
- GK: Luis Ingolotti
- DF: Leonel Di Plácido, Clever Domingo Ferreira Ñamandu, Juan Infante, Julián Fernández
- MF: Iván Tesuri, César Leonel Vega, Ezequiel Ham
- AM: Lautaro Godoy
- FW: Nicolás Laméndola, Franco Nicola
Falcioni tends to favor a 4-3-1-2 setup, and Godoy operates just behind the front two as the creative outlet. Di Plácido anchors the defense with 11 interceptions in five matches, the most defensively active player on either side. Laméndola and Nicola both started every one of the last five matches up front and will need service from Godoy to trouble a well-organized Rivadavia back line.
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Independiente Rivadavia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Independiente Rivadavia to advance here, most likely by a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline. Their attacking numbers, 10 goals in five matches against Tucuman’s 4, tell the whole story, and Arce’s scoring streak gives them a reliable route to goals even against a defensively disciplined Tucuman side. To be honest, Tucuman’s unbeaten run looks more about damage limitation than genuine attacking threat, and in a knockout tie away from home that approach rarely holds up against a team scoring at Rivadavia’s current rate.
