Alex MacQuoid
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Sunderland’s return to European football gets a proper test straight away. AZ Alkmaar arrive at the Stadium of Light unbeaten in five and scoring goals like it’s going out of fashion, while the hosts are still figuring out their identity after a rough afternoon against Arsenal. The interesting wrinkle here: AZ’s academy graduate Robin Roefs actually left this club for Sunderland over the summer, so there’s a small subplot buried in a fixture that otherwise looks fairly one-sided on paper, even if the bookmakers still lean toward the Black Cats.
Wilson Isidor gives Sunderland a focal point up top who can hold the ball and buy fouls in dangerous areas, something this side leans on heavily given how many free kicks they’ve won recently. On the other side, Ro Zangelo Daal has been in ruthless form for AZ with three goals across his last four league phase warm ups. Honestly, if either side needs a spark from open play, it’s probably going to come through one of these two.
Hot stat: AZ Alkmaar have scored 11 goals in their last five matches (including a 5-2 romp over GA Eagles) compared to Sunderland’s tally of just 4 across the same stretch. That gap alone tells you a lot about the attacking gulf heading into this one.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadium of Light, Sunderland |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
We’re leaning toward AZ Alkmaar Draw No Bet as the smarter angle here. Sunderland are priced as strong favourites but their underlying form doesn’t back that up – one win in their last five, a limp attack, and a heavy home fouling habit. AZ meanwhile have won four of five in the last month and haven’t lost since… well, a while. The travel and occasion factor might close the gap slightly, but the value clearly sits with the visitors not losing.
Style-wise this should be a mismatch in possession terms. AZ have racked up 84 shots and 2310 passes across their last five outings against Sunderland’s 62 shots and 2033 passes, and the Dutch side’s completion rate sits comfortably higher too. Sunderland foul more (59 vs 39 in the same sample) and pick up nearly double the bookings, which against a technical side like AZ could mean set pieces conceded in dangerous zones, or worse, a red card risk given they’ve already picked one up recently. That discipline gap could shape how open this actually gets.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | AZ Alkmaar Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Sunderland’s form graph has been jagged, to put it mildly. The 0-2 defeat to Arsenal was the most recent entry and it wasn’t close, the visitors dominating for long stretches while Sunderland struggled to create anything of note going forward. Before that there was a 1-0 win over Hull, a 1-1 draw with Brentford, another 1-0 nudge past Fulham, and a 1-2 loss to Ipswich. Five games, four goals scored, five conceded – that’s not the profile of a team about to blow anyone away offensively, even at home. Enzo Le Fée and Chris Rigg have carried a lot of the passing load through midfield but the final product just hasn’t clicked yet this campaign.
AZ Alkmaar, on the other hand, look like a side peaking at exactly the right moment. Their last match was a 1-1 draw with Willem II, a rare stumble in an otherwise blistering run that includes a 3-2 win over Heerenveen, a 5-2 demolition of GA Eagles, a 2-0 shutout of Fortuna Sittard, and a 4-1 statement win against Utrecht. Ro Zangelo Daal has been the standout with three goals in that stretch, and Mexx Meerdink’s shot volume (17 across five games) shows how often AZ get their front players involved. This is a team that scores goals in bunches and rarely goes flat two games running.
🚨Check out our dedicated Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sunderland the favourite
- Moneyline Sunderland 1.62 | AZ Alkmaar 4.90
- Draw 4.10
The market has Sunderland around 58% to win this at home, with AZ sitting near 19-23% depending on the book. We think that’s a touch generous on Sunderland’s side given how form actually reads right now – home advantage and squad depth are doing the heavy lifting in that price, not recent performances. AZ at close to 5.00 with the wider bookmakers feels like a live outside shot, and the draw price hovering near 4.10 isn’t unreasonable either given how tight these league phase openers can get.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sunderland possible starting eleven
- GK: Melker Ellborg
- DF: Trai Hume, Dan Ballard, Omar Alderete, Reinildo Isnard Mandava
- MF: Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Enzo Le Fée, Chemsdine Talbi, Chris Rigg
- FW: Wilson Isidor
Le Bris tends to favour a 4-2-3-1 setup, and the appearance data backs that shape up cleanly. Xhaka and Sadiki screen in front of the back four, Le Fée and Talbi provide the creative width, and Isidor leads the line alone. Worth watching how much Xhaka’s experience settles this midfield given how error-prone Sunderland have looked in transition lately.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting eleven
- GK: Jari De Busser
- DF: Wouter Goes, Lewis Schouten, Elijah Dijkstra, Mateo Chávez
- MF: Peer Koopmeiners, Jordy Clasie, Calvin Stengs, Dave Kwakman, Ro Zangelo Daal
- FW: Mexx Meerdink
Echteld mirrors the 4-2-3-1 too, with Koopmeiners and Clasie holding things together deep while Stengs and Daal float around Meerdink up top. Daal’s goal tally makes him the man to watch, but Meerdink’s shot numbers suggest he’s not far behind as a threat.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
AZ Alkmaar. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters lean toward this being tighter than the odds suggest. AZ’s attacking numbers over the last five games (11 goals, 84 shots, sharper pass accuracy) just outclass what Sunderland have shown domestically, and that Arsenal defeat still lingers as a red flag heading into a European night. We’re backing goals at both ends, a lively corner count given AZ’s set piece habits, and the away side to leave with at least a point. If forced to pick a script: something like a 2-2 or a narrow 1-2 to AZ feels closer to reality than a comfortable home win.
