Alex MacQuoid
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Everton welcome Wolves to the Hill Dickinson Stadium for a Round 3 EFL Cup tie that carries a bit of unfinished business. Wolves knocked Everton out of this exact competition last season, winning 2-0 in the Round of 32, so there’s a small score to settle here even if neither manager will admit it publicly. David Moyes has built his side around steady defending and set-piece threat this autumn, while César Peixoto’s Wolves arrive in noticeably better domestic form. Honestly, the underlying numbers suggest this one is closer than the bookmakers’ 58% Everton price implies.
Thierno Barry has been the standout name in Everton’s front line, four goals from his last five appearances and a genuine focal point up top. On the other side, Rodrigo Gomes has quietly racked up two goals and an assist for Wolves while creating chances from wide areas that Peixoto’s side lean on heavily. Both could decide this tie in a single moment.
Hot stat: Everton put four unanswered goals past Preston North End in their last cup outing, the heaviest scoreline of any side involved in that round. Wolves, meanwhile, haven’t lost back to back matches in over a month, a stretch that includes wins against Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke and Sheffield United.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL Cup 2026/27, Round 3 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Everton vs Wolves prediction
We think the value here isn’t really on the outright result, it’s on the goals market. Everton have drawn three of their last five matches, including a blank against Tottenham last time out, which points to a side that’s solid but a little toothless in front of goal right now. Wolves have scored in nine of their last ten matches and have found the net in every away trip this run. Given Everton’s set-piece reliance and Wolves’ habit of leaking goals from wide areas, both teams finding the net feels like the smarter angle than backing a clean home win.
Style-wise these sides contrast a fair bit. Wolves have committed 59 fouls across their last five games compared to Everton’s 40, yet they’ve picked up fewer yellow cards (5 versus 7), which says something about referees letting the more physical side play through contact. Wolves have also won more corners recently (33 to Everton’s 26), a stat that lines up with their tendency to work the ball wide through Bueno and Tchatchoua. Everton’s discipline off the ball is decent, but their final-third product has cooled since that Preston rout, and that gap in cutting edge is the main reason we’re not backing them with total confidence here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Wolves to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Everton’s last outing ended goalless against Tottenham, a match where they held their own defensively but never really threatened to break the deadlock. That follows a pattern, three draws and two wins across their last five, with the win margins coming against weaker opposition (Preston, Crystal Palace) rather than sides closer to their level. Tarkowski and Mykolenko have barely missed a minute across this stretch, which tells you Moyes trusts his spine even when results stall. Barry’s four goals stand out against a backdrop of otherwise modest attacking returns from the rest of the squad.
Wolves head into this one off the back of a 1-0 win over Sheffield United, their fourth victory in five matches. That run also includes a wild 2-4 defeat to West Ham, so it’s not been flawless, but the overall trend under Peixoto is clearly upward. Jiménez and Rodrigo Gomes have carried a good chunk of the attacking output, and the fact Wolves have scored in every one of their last five fixtures says a lot about their forward line’s consistency, even against tougher away tests.
🚨Check out our dedicated Everton vs Wolves stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Everton the favourite
- Moneyline Everton 1.57 | Wolves 5.25
- Draw 3.90
The market has Everton as clear favourites here, and being at home in a domestic cup against Premier League opposition, that price makes sense on paper. It’s a bit steep though given how flat Everton have looked in attack lately. Wolves at over 5.00 feels generous considering their recent form, we wouldn’t be shocked if this one ends up tighter than the odds suggest, maybe even a draw creeping into it late.
Possible Starting Lineups
Everton possible starting eleven
- GK: Jordan Pickford
- DF: James Tarkowski, Michael Keane, Jarrad Branthwaite, Vitaliy Mykolenko
- MF: James Garner, Merlin Röhl, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Harrison Armstrong
- FW: Tyrique George, Thierno Barry
Moyes has stuck close to the same defensive unit all season, so expect Tarkowski and Mykolenko to start again barring rotation for a cup tie. Barry leads the line off the back of his goal return, and Dewsbury-Hall’s minutes suggest he’s trusted in the number ten role behind him. The 4-2-3-1 shape gives Everton control in midfield but does leave them a bit narrow against wide threats like Wolves possess.
Wolves possible starting eleven
- GK: José Sá
- DF: Yacouba Nasser Djiga, Toti Gomes, Hugo Bueno, Jackson Tchatchoua
- MF: André, Marshall Munetsi, Fer López, Rodrigo Gomes, Thomas Doyle
- FW: Raúl Jiménez
Wolves’ back four has barely changed across their last five matches, and that consistency shows in results. Rodrigo Gomes and Fer López carry most of the creative burden from midfield, while Jiménez leads the line as the focal striker with two goals to his name in this stretch. Peixoto’s 4-2-3-1 mirrors Everton’s setup almost exactly, so this could come down to individual quality in the final third rather than tactical surprises.
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Wolves. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters lean toward a tight, goal-involved cup tie rather than a comfortable home night. Everton’s home advantage and squad depth should be enough to see them through, but we’d be surprised if Wolves don’t find the net given how sharp their front players have looked recently. Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, and Everton to progress narrowly, that’s the call from the TipsGG team on this one. Wolves have the tools to make it uncomfortable, and last season’s cup elimination of Everton is still fresh enough to add a genuine edge to proceedings.
