Liam Duckstein
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Sturm Graz open their Europa League League Phase campaign at home against a Rennes side that travels to Austria with far higher standing in the World Clubs Ranking. The Austrian champions have been solid domestically, riding a run that includes a big win over Voitsberg, but this jump to continental competition against a club used to fighting near the top of Ligue 1 is a different test altogether. Rennes arrive fresh off a narrow win over Marseille, and their squad depth on paper looks considerably stronger than what Sturm Graz can put out at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. We predict this one turns into a tactical battle where Rennes’ passing game does most of the talking.
Two players worth watching closely: Esteban Lepaul has scored three goals in his last four appearances for Rennes and looks like the man most likely to trouble Sturm Graz’s back line. On the home side, Seedy Jatta has been the sharpest attacking outlet, netting once and consistently getting into shooting positions despite limited service.
Hot stat: Rennes have out-shot Sturm Graz 68 to 46 across their last five matches combined, and their pass accuracy sits close to 84% compared to roughly 76% for the Austrians, a gap that hints at who is likely to control tempo on Wednesday night.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Sturm Graz vs Rennes prediction
Bookmakers give Rennes roughly a 49% chance of winning against just 26% for Sturm Graz, and the odds board backs that up with prices around 1.90 for the French side. We lean toward Rennes to win here, but not by a landslide margin. Sturm Graz have shown they can hurt teams at home, scoring in four of their last five matches, so a narrow away win feels like the most honest read of this fixture rather than a heavy Rennes rout.
Style-wise the contrast is clear. Rennes complete far more passes and commit fewer fouls per match relative to their possession share, a sign of a side comfortable holding the ball in midfield. Sturm Graz foul less in raw terms too, but their yellow card count of nine across five games shows a squad willing to stop transitions with a card if needed. Expect Rennes to dominate territory while Sturm Graz look to hit on the counter and draw cards from a Rennes defense that isn’t afraid to step up aggressively.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Esteban Lepaul to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Sturm Graz go into this match on a decent run, winning three and drawing one of their last five outings domestically. Their most recent result, a 2-1 win over LASK, showed a team that can grind out results even when not dominating the ball. Before that they thrashed Voitsberg 4-1, a scoreline that flattered them somewhat given the gap in quality between the two sides, but it did show Jatta and Beganovic both capable of finding the net. The 1-3 loss to Rapid Wien a fortnight earlier remains the one blemish that stands out, exposing a defense that can be opened up by quicker combination play, which is a concern given what Rennes bring going forward.
Rennes have also won three of their last five, though their form has been a touch less settled, mixing strong away results with draws against tougher opposition. Their latest match, a tight 1-0 win over Marseille, was built on patience rather than firepower, with Lepaul again the difference maker. The 2-2 draw with Paris Saint-Germain a few weeks back stands out as the most telling data point, proving Rennes can hold their own against elite domestic rivals even if they couldn’t find a winner. That resilience against bigger names is exactly why the market sees them as favourites in Graz.
🚨Check out our dedicated Sturm Graz vs Rennes stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Rennes the favourite
- Moneyline Sturm Graz 3.62 | Rennes 1.91
- Draw 3.85
The odds tell a fairly one-sided story on paper, with most books pricing Rennes as clear favourites around 1.90 while Sturm Graz sit closer to 3.60. That gap lines up with the ranking disparity between the two clubs, but Sturm Graz’s home form and recent scoring record suggest the price on the hosts holds some value for punters willing to back an upset or at least a tight scoreline. To be hones, we wouldn’t be shocked if Sturm Graz nick a point here given how stubborn they’ve looked at Liebenau this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sturm Graz possible starting eleven
- GK: Ammar Helac
- DF: Albert Vallci, Arjan Malić, Paul Koller, Petar Petrović
- MF: Jurgen Heil, Jon Gorenc Stanković, Jacob Peter Hödl, Simon Seidl
- FW: Seedy Jatta, Belmin Beganovic
Sturm Graz should stick with their favoured 4-4-2 shape. Helac has started every recent match and his eight saves in that stretch show he’s kept his side in games. Vallci anchors the back four with the most minutes among defenders, while Heil and Gorenc Stanković provide the engine in midfield. Up front, Jatta’s movement and Beganovic’s goal threat give Ingolitsch his most reliable attacking pairing.
Rennes possible starting eleven
- GK: Brice Samba
- DF: Charlie Cresswell, Przemysław Frankowski, Mahamadou Nagida, Anthony Rouault
- MF: Valentin Rongier, Ludovic Blas, Mousa Al-Tamari, Adrien Thomasson, Sebastian Szymański
- FW: Esteban Lepaul
Rennes’ 4-1-4-1 fits the personnel well. Samba has played every minute available in the last five matches and remains the clear number one. Rongier sits as the deep midfield anchor behind a busy attacking quartet of Blas, Al-Tamari, Thomasson and Szymański, all of whom have contributed goals or assists recently. Lepaul leads the line alone and is the player Sturm Graz’s defenders need to track closest, given his three goals in four games heading into this trip.
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Sturm Graz. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Rennes’ superior passing numbers and Lepaul’s scoring form make them the side we trust to edge this one, though Sturm Graz’s home record and recent goal output mean we’re not writing off a share of the spoils. Our staff lean toward a Rennes win with goals at both ends, backed by Lepaul finding the net again and both defenses being open enough to concede at least once. Anyone backing the hosts should treat it as a value play rather than the expected outcome, since the underlying stats favour the visitors on nearly every metric that matters.
