The 2026 Vuelta a España opened on Saturday with an individual time trial in Monaco, a late-scheduled test that ran deep into the evening, with the final riders not reaching the finish until around 7:30 p.m. Those were the race’s first competitive kilometres, setting the initial general classification order and deciding the first wearer of the red jersey. Tadej Pogačar arrived at the race as the defending champion and the overwhelming overall favourite, and preview material published after the time trial frames the question of the second day as whether the UAE Emirates-XRG leader gets involved in a punchy finale or simply concentrates on reaching Manosque safely.
The secondary classifications are still in their earliest form. The points competition has only one day of scoring on the board, while the mountains classification remains untouched, because the opening time trial contained no categorised climbs. That changes on Sunday: the first two categorised ascents of the race come inside the opening 50 kilometres, and the polka dot competition is expected to draw riders from the smaller teams into the early breakaway in search of the first points on offer.
Stage 2: The Route and Its Challenges
Stage 2 covers 214.3 kilometres from Monaco to Manosque and is the longest stage of the entire 2026 Vuelta a España, scheduled to start at 12:16 and expected to finish at around 5:15 p.m. The peloton leaves the principality quickly, with Monaco covering only around two square kilometres, then follows the Côte d’Azur past Nice before turning inland just south of the city and heading into Provence. It is a fully French stage, unusual for a Vuelta route, and one with the characteristics of a hard French one-day race rather than a traditional Spanish opening week.
The first categorised climb of the race comes after 29 kilometres. The Alto Châteauneuf-Grasse is a third-category ascent measuring 12.7 kilometres at an average gradient of 3.0 percent, and it is followed a little farther down the road by the Col de Saint-Andrieu, also third category. Those are the only two classified climbs of the day, but the profile is deceptive: elevation gain is listed at 3,028 vertical metres by ProCyclingStats, with other previews putting the figure at more than 2,600 metres, and the ProfileScore of 96 reflects a course that is rarely genuinely flat. Roads in the south of France simply keep tilting up and down.
The decisive terrain arrives late. From Esparron-de-Verdon, around 50 kilometres from the finish, to Valensole at 25 kilometres to go, there is almost no flat road, and a hill leading into the finale measuring 2.8 kilometres at 6.2 percent is demanding enough to have a real impact on the composition of the front group. A long, gently descending section then carries the race towards Manosque, where the final five kilometres rise gradually again at approximately 2.2 percent, with the closing kilometre listed at 3.6 percent by ProCyclingStats and described in other previews as averaging around 3 percent. That combination of a long false flat and an uphill drag to the line favours powerful riders who can absorb a hilly day and still produce a sprint, rather than pure sprinters.
Manosque has recent history to draw on. The Tour de la Provence finished here in 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2025, each time with the road rising gently towards the line. Davide Ballerini beat Giulio Ciccone and Alex Aranburu in 2021, and Bryan Coquard held off Julian Alaphilippe and Filippo Ganna in 2022. Mads Pedersen won the last two editions, beating Axel Zingle and Clément Champoussin on one occasion and Matej Mohorič on the other, in both cases after a tough hilly stage. Warm conditions are forecast, with around 26 degrees Celsius at the start rising to roughly 30 to 31 degrees at the finish, sunshine, light winds and little to no chance of rain, so the weather is unlikely to be a decisive tactical factor.
Source: procyclingstats.com
Favourites for the Stage
Mads Pedersen of Lidl-Trek is the most widely backed pick for the stage. The Dane has won in Manosque in each of the last two years, has stated he is going all in for this finish, and arrives with a Lidl-Trek line-up built around him. The main opposition is expected to come from Visma | Lease a Bike, who hold three cards in Wout van Aert, Matthew Brennan and Christophe Laporte, and whose tactical approach, whether a committed lead-out or three independent options, is one of the open questions of the day.
- Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
- Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike)
- Matthew Brennan (Visma | Lease a Bike)
- Christophe Laporte (Visma | Lease a Bike)
- Tadej Pogačar (UAE Emirates-XRG)
- Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
- Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
- Finn Fisher-Black (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
- Axel Laurance (Netcompany INEOS)
- Ben Turner (Netcompany INEOS)
- Orluis Aular (Movistar)
- Bryan Coquard (Cofidis)
- Magnus Cort (Uno-X)
- Rasmus Tiller (Uno-X)
- Pau Miquel (Bahrain Victorious)
- Jordan Labrosse (Decathlon CMA CGM)
- Bastien Tronchon (Groupama-FDJ)
- Hugo Hofstetter (NSN)
The ratings-based preview takes a different angle and grades the day as a hill finish. Its four-star top favourite is Pogačar, whose Hills rating of 83 is the highest in the startlist, supported by two wins in similar-profile races in the last 90 days. The three-star strong contenders are Primož Roglič of Red Bull – BORA and Richard Carapaz of EF – EasyPost, both rated 78 for Hills and 80 for Climbing, with Carapaz credited with three podiums in comparable races over the same period. The two-star dark horses are Mattias Skjelmose of Lidl-Trek, who holds the second-highest Hills rating in the field at 80, Oscar Onley and Axel Laurance, listed there with INEOS Grenadiers. The one-star ones to watch are Ben Tulett of Visma – Lease a Bike, Finn Fisher-Black of Red Bull – BORA, who leads all riders with seven top-10 finishes in similar races from 11 outings, João Almeida of UAE Emirates and Van Aert, whose Sprint rating of 76 alongside a Hills rating of 77 marks him out if the race ends in a reduced sprint. Published shortlists elsewhere put Pedersen, Van Aert and Brennan in the top group, with Groves, Cort, Ethan Hayter, Aular and Fisher-Black a tier below, and Laporte, Alberto Dainese, Vincenzo Albanese, Coquard and Meeus among the outside picks. Pure sprinters such as Dainese of Quick-Step and Steffen De Schuyteneer of Lotto are more likely to wait for a flatter opportunity, while puncheurs including Jarno Widar and Henok Mulubrhan gain ground if the pace over the final hill is high.
Prediction
The most likely outcome is a reduced bunch sprint in Manosque, and Mads Pedersen is the pick for the win. His two previous victories on this exact finish came after hard hilly stages, his team has been assembled around him for the opening week, and the profile of a long false flat followed by an uphill sprint suits a rider whose raw power grows more valuable as fatigue accumulates. Wout van Aert is the choice for second: the finale suits him better than it suits his younger team-mate, and his combination of Hills and Sprint ratings makes him the strongest of the Visma | Lease a Bike options if the group stays reasonably large. Matthew Brennan completes the podium, with the caveat that Visma’s tactical decision could easily reorder their own riders. The main risk to that prediction is Pogačar. If UAE Emirates-XRG or another team drive the pace over the 2.8-kilometre hill at 6.2 percent, most of the fast men will be distanced and the four-star favourite of the ratings model becomes very hard to beat, though he has little need to spend energy this early with the World Championships later in the season.
Either way, the longest day of the race arriving so early gives the opening weekend a weight that the Vuelta’s second stages rarely carry. A long transfer through Provence, more than 2,600 metres of climbing and an uphill finish will already begin to separate the riders who arrived in condition from those still building, and the answers given in Manosque, particularly on whether Pogačar chooses to race or to conserve, will shape how the rest of the first week is approached.
Summary
- Distance: 214.3 km, Monaco to Manosque, the longest stage of the 2026 Vuelta a España
- Terrain: hilly and constantly rolling, with an uphill finish; reduced bunch sprint expected
- Elevation gain: 3,028 vertical metres per ProCyclingStats, listed elsewhere as more than 2,600 metres; ProfileScore 96
- Key climbs: Alto Châteauneuf-Grasse, third category, 12.7 km at 3.0 percent, after 29 km; Col de Saint-Andrieu, third category; uncategorised hill into the finale, 2.8 km at 6.2 percent; final 5 km at approximately 2.2 percent with the last kilometre at 3.6 percent
- Timing: start 12:16, estimated finish 5:15 p.m.
- Conditions: warm and sunny, around 26 degrees Celsius at the start and 30 to 31 degrees at the finish, light south-easterly then south-westerly winds, little to no rain
- Favourite for the win: preview pick Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek); the ratings model’s four-star top favourite is Tadej Pogačar (UAE Emirates-XRG); betting market favourite to be confirmed from the odds table
- Predicted podium: 1. Mads Pedersen, 2. Wout van Aert, 3. Matthew Brennan