The cycling world anticipates a direct confrontation between Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar for this Saturday’s Milan-San Remo. While market analysts favor the Dutchman following a dominant display at Tirreno-Adriatico, former professional Tom Dumoulin suggests the world champion faces an uphill battle against a meticulously prepared rival.
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Dumoulin identifies Van der Poel as the solitary rider capable of matching the Slovenian on the Cipressa. Speaking on the NOS Wielerpodcast, he expressed hope for a repeat of last year’s head-to-head finish. However, he emphasized that Pogacar has spent months specifically targeting this monument.
“Pogacar apparently has been working on this for months. In training, he’s gone up that Cipressa full gas so many times and has even improved his own best time.”
Strategic Advantages on the Cipressa
The intensity of the UAE Team Emirates leader’s preparation, combined with the support of Paul Magnier and the climbing prowess of Del Toro, presents a formidable challenge. Despite Pogacar‘s focus, Dumoulin notes that the Cipressa is not a traditional mountain pass. Its modest gradients offer a significant aerodynamic advantage to anyone glued to the leader’s wheel.
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If Mathieu van der Poel survives the initial ascent, the advantage shifts back to him. Dumoulin asserts that the Dutchman remains the superior sprinter. Pogacar likely needs to arrive solo to secure victory, as Van der Poel wins a flat-out sprint nine times out of ten. He is a clinical finisher in these scenarios.
Dark Horses Facing Steep Odds
The 2025 start list features high-caliber talents including Wout van Aert, Jasper Stuyven, Tom Pidcock, Matthew Brennan, and Romain Grégoire. Yet, Dumoulin labels their prospects as heading toward a slaughter if the pace mirrors previous years. Early attacks are deemed futile due to the ferocious velocity of the peloton before the final climbs.
- Capi: Too early for sustainment against the main group.
- Capo Berta: Requires maximum effort for a negligible 15-second gap.
- Cipressa: The decisive point where outsiders must hope for a tactical stalemate between the big two.
Secondary contenders must pray for a moment of hesitation on the Poggio. If the primary favorites stop working together, it provides a slim opening for the chasing group to re-enter the frame and rewrite the race script. Follow TipsGG for continuous cycling coverage and race analysis.