Liam Duckstein
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Leicester City host Plymouth Argyle on Matchday 4 of the 2026/27 League One season, and the contrast in form between these two sides makes this one of the more intriguing fixtures of the round. Russell Martin’s Leicester sit 21st in the table with just two points from three games, while Tom Cleverley’s Plymouth, sitting 12th, arrive on the back of a win over Bradford City. What makes this particularly striking is that Plymouth’s year-long winrate of 61% dwarfs Leicester’s 26%, meaning the hosts are actually the weaker side on paper despite playing at King Power Stadium.
Two players worth tracking closely are Plymouth’s Harvey White, who has contributed one goal and two assists across five recent matches while covering ground relentlessly in midfield, and Leicester’s Tom Watson, who leads the hosts in shots with 16 across five games even without registering a goal or assist yet.
A standout stat from recent fixtures: Plymouth have scored 8 goals across their last five matches compared to Leicester’s 4, and Plymouth’s attackers have generated 71 shots in that span, nearly matching Leicester’s 77 despite clearly playing a more direct, lower-possession style.
| 🏆 Tournament: | League One 2026/27 |
| 🏟 Venue: | King Power Stadium, Leicester |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Leicester vs Plymouth Prediction
Plymouth are the better team right now, and the numbers back that up clearly. Their 43% winrate over the last 30 days against Leicester’s 17% is a significant gap. Plymouth have won three of their last seven matches, while Leicester have won just one. Cleverley’s side beat Bradford City 2-0 most recently and have shown they can handle physical League One opposition.
We predict Plymouth to win or at least avoid defeat in this match. The value lies with Plymouth on the double chance (Draw or Plymouth win), as Leicester’s early season form is poor and their squad appears to still be adjusting to the third tier. The bookmakers’ 27% win probability for Plymouth feels low given the context.
Leicester average just 0.8 goals per game across their last five, and their only win in the past 30 days came against Northampton. Plymouth, to be honest, look sharper in nearly every attacking category.
Leicester do commit fouls at a moderate rate (66 free kicks across five games), but Plymouth are the more foul-prone side with 73 free kicks conceded, which could lead to set-piece opportunities for the hosts. Leicester also carry 11 yellow cards from five games, suggesting a degree of desperation in their defensive work that Plymouth can exploit through movement.
Plymouth’s pass accuracy is lower at 68% versus Leicester’s 89%, but they compensate with far more interceptions (44 to 30), pressing higher and disrupting build-up play. That pressing style is likely to trouble a Leicester side that has struggled to convert possession into clear chances.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Plymouth to win or draw (Double Chance) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Leicester have managed just two points from their opening three League One games, and their recent run of form has been inconsistent at best. Over the last 30 days, they have won once, drawn twice, and lost three times. Their last match ended in a 0-0 draw with MK Dons, which was a slight improvement after a 1-3 defeat to Ipswich and a 1-2 home loss to Burton. The Burton result was particularly concerning as Leicester lost on home soil against a side sitting 11th in the table.
Across five recent games, Leicester have scored just 4 goals and registered 77 shots, meaning a large portion of their attacking output is coming from low-quality positions. Jakub Stolarczyk has made 9 saves in 5 appearances, suggesting the defensive structure is also under pressure. The red card in that sample period adds further concern about discipline.
Plymouth’s momentum is clear. They beat Bradford City 2-0 in their most recent outing and have won three of their last seven matches, with two draws. Their loss to Coventry (2-4) was the only real blemish in recent weeks, and that came against a Championship-level opponent. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Wycombe and lost 1-3 to Stockport County, who are currently sitting third in the league.
Plymouth’s five-game stats show 8 goals scored, 44 interceptions, and 30 corners, which points to a team that wins second balls, pressures opponents effectively, and creates width. Xavier Amaechi has 2 goals from 5 games on the right flank, and Will Evans adds another goal from deep forward runs. Alex Hartridge, a central defender, has also contributed a goal, reflecting Plymouth’s threat from set pieces.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Leicester | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 8 |
| Total shots | 77 | 71 |
| Free kicks | 66 | 60 |
| Corner kicks | 29 | 30 |
| Total fouls | 54 | 73 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 89% | 68% |
| Interceptions | 30 | 44 |
| Offsides | 5 | 13 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Leicester vs Plymouth stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Leicester the favourite
- Moneyline Leicester 1.83–1.87 | Plymouth 3.20–3.60
- Draw 3.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers make Leicester favourites at around 1.83–1.87, reflecting home advantage and name recognition. We think those odds undervalue Plymouth significantly. A team with a 61% winrate this year, arriving on the back of a clean sheet victory, playing against a side with just 17% in the last 30 days, deserves more respect. Plymouth at 3.20–3.60 offers genuine value for the outright win. The draw at 3.65 is also worth considering given Leicester’s inability to break teams down.
Possible Starting Lineups
Leicester possible starting eleven
- GK: Jakub Stolarczyk
- DF: Harry Souttar, Caleb Okoli, Luke Thomas, Jayden Joseph
- MF: Oliver Skipp, Samuel Charles Braybrooke, William Thomas-Alves, Olabade Aluko
- FW: Tom Watson, Bobby Reid
Russell Martin is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Stolarczyk continuing in goal after five recent appearances. Harry Souttar anchors the back line alongside Okoli, who grabbed a goal in his three recent games. Samuel Braybrooke has been one of Leicester’s more consistent performers in midfield, recording an assist and eight shots across five matches. Tom Watson leads the team in shots and will be expected to drive forward from wide positions. Bobby Reid provides the link between midfield and attack.
Plymouth possible starting eleven
- GK: Murphy Cooper
- DF: Wes Harding, Alex Hartridge, Mathias Ross Jensen, Matthew Sorinola
- MF: Harvey White, Bradley Ibrahim, Malachi Boateng, Tyreeq Bakinson
- FW: Xavier Amaechi, Aribim Pepple
Tom Cleverley will likely deploy a 4-1-4-1 or a compact 4-4-2 shape depending on how he reads Leicester’s midfield. Murphy Cooper starts in goal with a back four built around the experienced Wes Harding and the goal-scoring Hartridge. Harvey White is Plymouth’s standout creative force, with one goal and two assists recently, and he will be central to everything Cleverley’s side does going forward. Amaechi provides pace and directness on the right, while Pepple brings physicality up front with 10 shots and one goal from five games. Ronan Curtis, with 13 shots from wide areas, may also push for a starting role.
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Plymouth. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
This match looks far closer than the league table suggests at first glance. Leicester are at home but have looked fragile, conceding in four of their last five matches and managing just four goals in that same span. Plymouth arrive with better form, a more aggressive pressing game, and a squad that has been scoring goals consistently.
We predict Plymouth to win this match. Their 4-1-4-1 structure, combined with Harvey White’s creativity and Amaechi’s directness, should create enough to trouble Leicester’s back four. Leicester’s 11 yellow cards in five games suggest a defence under strain, and Plymouth’s 13 offsides show they are making aggressive, high-tempo runs that will test that line repeatedly.
Both teams to score is also a reasonable call given Leicester’s need to attack at home and Plymouth’s tendency to give up chances (73 fouls, 30 corners conceded). Over 2.5 goals fits the profile of this fixture. Perhaps the most overlooked angle here is Plymouth’s corner count, 30 from five games, which matches Leicester’s own tally and points to a match where set pieces could prove decisive.
