Frokat Besides the very basics of sports betting, there are many advanced - or not so much - ways of maximizing accuracy and minimizing risks. Betting is a very complex hobby that takes years to master. Picking up effective betting strategies to assist in the learning process is a worthwhile idea. In this article, we'll be covering core betting strategies of all levels that are worth using by both inexperienced beginners and long-term punters.
Why Use Sports Betting Strategies?
It's important to outline right away that sports betting isn't just a random game of luck. Sports betting takes a great deal of observational, analytical, and economic skills. Of course, there's a certain degree of luck involved even when using the most fool-proof betting strategies, but applying them to your betting journey is a surefire way to increase the success percentage.
A strategy also allows you as a punter to focus on improving as a sports analyst instead of chasing immediate victories. Needless to say, focusing on becoming a better bettor also prevents you from going on emotional loss streaks and lets you have fun along the way. Talk about a win-win!
There's just so much to the world of sports betting—dozens of different sports, hundreds of different betting markets, and pretty much unlimited ways to improve at betting on them. A detailed sports betting strategy is key to learning it all. Without one, it's easy to get lost.
Basic Sports Betting Strategy
Let's start off with the basics. A basic concept from this category is easy to learn and doesn't require any advanced knowledge about the inner workings of sports betting. However, it's extremely effective - it's even more important than the advanced betting strategies we'll list sooner!
Bankroll Management
Managing your bankroll effectively is key everywhere, not just in sports betting. Sports bettors utilize some advanced methods that are unique to betting, though, but they're still very easy to follow. Let's take a look at some of bankroll management strategies to start betting effectively.
Use betting units to split your bankroll into tiny parts that you won't be afraid to lose wagering. /img_source: Flickr
Determine Bankroll Size
The first and the most important rule of setting your budget is simple: never bet more than you can afford to lose. Everything else will vary on your engagement with sports betting, finances, etc. Don't forget to creatively use different bonuses offered by sportsbooks to boost your bankroll without additional spending!
Use Betting Units
The first thing we need to do when starting out in the sports betting hobby is establish a rigid budget. Betting units are a fantastic bankroll management system used by most successful bettors. Using betting units over just tracking real money in and out has numerous advantages.
| Avoid overspending | Track your accuracy |
|---|---|
| Not all bets and budgets are made equal. It's easy to get carried away seeing some lucky punter score a massive jackpot that covers all their losses and then some in one go, but, in the long term, this is a terrible strategy. A punter who wins 10 bets in a row at a modest $10 a wager is way more successful than someone who loses 9 times out of 10 and gets lucky with a $1000 bet. But without using betting units, it's hard to tell! | Tying into the previous point, it's way easier to track your bet accuracy over time when using bet units. This is especially important for those seeking to earn money with betting - but even those betting for fun would definitely be interested in becoming better. It will be easier to see how much better you get at betting after employing the betting strategies we discuss later! |
Visit the link above to learn more about betting units, what they are, and how to employ them correctly in our sports betting unit guide.
Understand Betting Odds And Spreads
After we've set aside a budget, now it's time to see how much use we can get from it. Understanding betting odds is key to that - these not only dictate our potential winnings but also tell us a lot about team performance and their chances to win or lose.
Betting Odds And Probability
Betting odds represent the likelihood of an event happening. There's a catch, though - they represent a bookmaker's opinion on the likelihood of an outcome. After all, they're set by humans (sports analysts, "handicappers"), and no human is perfect. The most important things analysts look at when setting up the odds (and you should look for them, too):
- Team form. This includes teams' or players' past forms, changes in rosters, and match history.
- Public interest. Interest from the bettors influences odds.
- Competitors odds. Bookies constantly monitor the odds of their competition.
Line shopping is the sports term that basically means checking multiple sportsbooks to find the best value in odds before placing a bet. Gotta know how the odds work for that!
Use Betting Software
Digital helpers can make browsing through bet matches and odds a breeze. Such pieces of betting software can do tons of things, from simple odds comparison tools and betting calculators to fully-fledged prediction apps and even bots that place wagers without user input. Not to mention automatic bankroll management for maximum effectiveness!
Beting software like BetWasp offers easy access to arbitrage betting. /img_credit: BetWasp
Different Betting Odds Formats
The betting odds are represented in different formats depending on your region - or what you prefer. They all represent the same thing and are interchangeable.
Odds converter
- Decimal odds. Betting format popular in Europe and Australia.
- Fractional odds. Betting format popular in Great Britain.
- American odds. This betting format is popular in the United States, where favorites and underdogs are marked with plus and minus.
Spreads and Odds
Also known as handicaps, spread betting is a bet market that aims to correct potential mismatches in team or player skill levels. While bets become more even when an underdog receives a virtual handicap, odds on their wins also decrease. In sports betting, more risk means more rewards.
"Hooks" are used in handicap (or point spread) to eliminate the possibility of a draw bet (also called a push bet). When a push bet occurs, all the stakes are returned to punters, wasting their and the bookmaker's time. That's why bookmakers set half points in spreads in sports that don't have half points in their rulebook. So, next time you see a point spread of +1.5 on a football match, you'll know that it's called a hook, and it's not a mistake from the bookie!
Research Sports and Games You Bet On
It's often best to follow one sport or esport you're familiar with rather than disperse your attention. Knowing the basic rules of sports you bet on is just as important—if not more—than knowing the basics of sports betting itself.
Play It Yourself
Keeping up with the pros in physical sports isn't quite feasible, but this advice is pretty useful for esports bettors. The best option is to play the esport you follow, watch, and bet on. It's not required to be an elite player - just knowing the basic rules, win conditions, and overall flow of the game is enough. Don't forget to learn patch notes!
Monitor the News
That ties into our previous point. The news is more than just the changes in esports and game rules. They can be anything about team rosters, player changes, injuries, general trends, event dates, new formats, etc. This information can make or break bets.
Use our match analysis and predictions tool to get insight for upcoming events in two clicks.
Listen to Experts and Tipsters
You don't have to do all the research alone! Community tipsters' and sports analysts' opinions are here to help. Use our match prediction tool to stay on top of all relevant analysis in tips on the matches you're interested in. It's easy to find value bets by using this!
Common Pitfalls To Avoid When Sports Betting
It's important to be aware of mistakes that are common among beginner bettors if you plan to avoid them. We don't recommend learning them by example—just check our short list of what NOT to do!
Gambler's Fallacy
This is a big one. Despite its name, it's seen pretty much everywhere, not just in gambling or sports betting. The gambler's fallacy is a belief that the likelihood of an event occurring adjusts dynamically depending on previous results. For instance, a witless bettor might think he's more likely to win a coin toss after losing it 3 times in a row since it's supposed to be a 50/50 event - surely it must turn heads this time, right? Applying this belief to sports betting is a disaster.
Irresponsible gambling may lead to massive financial and mental health losses.
Although researching match histories and past performances is vital in sports betting, an element of luck remains. If we treat every bet as a coin toss, we have to remember that the sample size in sports betting is not even remotely enough to give us the mathematical 50/50.
Chasing Losses
There's a common idea that it's possible to never lose money if you simply double your wager every time you lose a bet. While it's true on paper, it only works (on paper) when a punter has unlimited funds. Since nobody has those in real life, this strategy doesn't work and is instead called an infamous practice of chasing losses.
Chasing losses is a common issue among those suffering from a gambling addiction. Trying to win back what was lost is a guaranteed way to get trapped in a vicious cycle where each attempt to get lost funds back loses more and more.
To combat chasing losses, practice the following:
- Set a rigid betting budget. Sticking to an established betting funds pool is the first line of defense against a gambling addiction.
- Remember to have fun while betting. It might sound weird, but asking yourself if betting is fun to you is a great way to stop any potential gambling mishaps.
- Use the sportsbook's responsible gambling policies. Most reputable sportsbooks (aka the ones you should be using anyway) have special settings that allow you to set betting limits and outright lock your account in case you need it.
Betting as a Source of Income
Viewing betting as a source of income is iffy, especially for beginner bettors. Betting for guaranteed profit is a hard sell, and it takes a lot of proficiency, time, and skill to pull off - and it's sometimes even impossible unless the planets align. If you're a beginner, it's best to focus on treating sports betting as a fun hobby while you're getting better at it.
Advanced Betting Strategies
We can make our gambling journey even more structured than just knowing the basics and avoiding common pitfalls. Proper usage of advanced betting strategies can turn the tide and give an edge to the bettor and not the house. Be warned, though, that these are usually more tricky to pull off and require good fundamentals - if you're a beginner, starting with the basics is the better bet.
Hedging Bets
This term comes from investors—it's an advanced risk management strategy. Just like in stocks or property investments, it exists as a sports betting strategy: bets in the opposite direction to limit—or completely eliminate—any potential losses.
Beginner bettors are often confused with the concept of hedging. After all, wouldn't placing bets for and against an outcome just make even at best or lose money over time due to the bookmaker's margin at worst? Well, no, if you know what you're doing. The correct way of hedging involves intimate knowledge of how betting odds, markets, and ways of betting interact, as well as taking advantage of new information in real time. Let's demonstrate with an easy example:
Imagine you've placed a pre-match bet of $100 on Bosnia & Herzegovina to win an upcoming game in UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifiers against Ukraine at odds of 3.00. This bet could potentially return $300 ($200 profit plus your $100 stake). After the pre-match bet is made, this bet market is closed. However, an option to place live bets remains. This is the key to hedging in this case.
Live betting, or in-play betting, is a popular way of placing wagers on online bookmakers. Unlike pre-match or pre-event bets that are closed down when the match starts, it's possible to place live bets when the game is underway. This opens up some interesting sports betting strategies and opportunities.
As the game progresses, let's say Bosnia scores the first goal, the odds for Bosnia to win the game, while the odds for a draw and Ukraine to win increase. Some people would be satisfied with the chances to win; shrewd bettors might take this opportunity to hedge this bet and eliminate the risks involved.
We can now place a live bet on the game ending in a draw. The odds for a draw have risen to 4.00 (3/1), so we have decided to place a $50 hedge bet on this outcome. If the game ends in a draw, this bet will return $200 ($150 profit plus your $50 stake), ensuring we make a profit regardless of the result.
If the Bosnia and Herzegovina national team wins, we win the original bet, netting $200 profit from it. The hedge bet is lost since it loses, so we end up deducing $50 from winnings.
If the game ends in a draw, we lose your original $100 bet on Bosnia but win $150 from the hedge bet on the draw, securing a $50 profit.
In this particular bet, we have slightly exaggerated the odds to make them cleaner and more readable.
As we see, the hedge bet strategy reduces the potential maximum profit (since part of it goes to the hedge bet), but also lowers the risk of losing the entire stake if the initial bet goes awry. Hedging is a fantastic tool in sports betting strategy and is rated by many expert punters as the strategy to use.
We can use hedging best when multiple ways of betting are available. We're talking about:
- Pre-match betting. The usual bet on a game or a match.
- Outrights betting. Bet on the event as a whole in a futures bet, then hedge the bet by betting on the finals.
- Live betting. Bet pre-game, then bet during the game.
Dutching Bets
Dutching your bets is a strategy similar to hedging. However, the difference in execution between these two makes Dutching much more specific. Unlike hedging, where we make a decision to hedge the bet after receiving some new information about the match or game, in Dutching, we spread the stake across multiple contestants right away.
This simple difference makes it unviable in sports or esports, where there are just two contestants involved. We can't Dutch a bet on a soccer match outcome—we'll be losing money this way.
What sports can we use the Dutching betting system on? Anything with many contestants - things like horse racing, motor racing, greyhound racing, or, if you're an esports fan, battle royale esports such as PUBG, Fortnite, and Warzone. etc, where it's ten or more teams in a single match. Alternatively, it's possible to place Dutching bets on outrights, even in classic sports like soccer and basketball.
Max Verstappen went on to eventually win the Australian Gran Prix.
Let's take a look at a simple example of Dutching a bet:
Let's say we want to place a $100 bet on the Australian Grand Prix. Right away, we see the three main favorites: Max Verstappen (with odds of 4.0), Sergio Perez (6.0), and Charles Leclerc (9.0). With the dutching strategy, our aim is to distribute these $100 so that we get the same profit regardless of the outcome (as long as one of these three drivers wins, of course).
We could, of course, do the calculations by hand with these parameters, but we're too lazy for that. Instead, we use an online Dutching calculator like this one - simply input our selections here and watch the magic. We learn that we need to stake the following:
- $47,37 on Max Verstappen.
- $31.58 on Sergio Perez.
- $21.05 on Charlces Leclerc.
The beauty of the Dutching system is that we receive the same amount of profit regardless of who wins it - in our case, it's $189.47 or a profit of $89.47 plus our initial stake of $100.
In this particular bet, we have slightly exaggerated the odds to make them cleaner and more readable.
Dutching allows us to manage risk without constantly monitoring the event. It does require a deep understanding of the odds and some calculations, but with tools like odds calculators available online, there's not that much research needed.
Odds converter
Additionally, some sportsbooks don't allow for betting on a single event on multiple contestants like that. In that case, Dutching will also involve using multiple sportsbooks at once.
Important Bankroll Management Systems
As we discussed above, managing your bankroll is an incredibly important aspect of sports betting. Here are some betting systems that optimize your bankroll usage.
The Fibonacci Betting System
This betting system originated in casino games of chance, but it can also be applied to sports betting. It's an advanced form of bet unit management that aims to mitigate losses.
You might be familiar with the Fibonacci mathematical sequence. It goes like this:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34...
As in, every consequent number is the sum of previous ones. Some of the readers probably realized what's its application in betting - it's a loss mitigation system where, in case of a loss, the next stake will be the sum of a previous one. In case of a win, we start over.
Fibonacci Betting System vs Chasing Losses Fallacy
This bet system can sound suspiciously close to chasing losses - a practice we've warned you against before. But, there are key differences between chasing losses and Fibonacci betting that completely change the entire outcome. Let's review them.
- Start small. The key part of the Fibonacci betting system is starting from the bottom. Even bettors with small budgets can recover losses after losing a $1 bet. Starting off by blowing $1000 and then trying to recover it by chasing losses is a completely different story!
- Get better at budgeting. The Fibonacci sequence already implies that you should use bet units and other budgeting techniques.
- Reset. Resetting is an important part of the Fibonacci betting strategy. It's perfect for those betting as a hobby—there's no need to ever blow massive amounts of money at a time. Always reset to the very beginning after inevitably winning a bet!
1-3-2-6 Betting System
This is another betting system that focuses on betting unit management. Unlike the Fibonacci sequence, this betting system aims to capitalize on winning streaks more than it does on recovering losses. This betting strategy is versatile, as it works on casino games of chance as well as sports betting.
However, this system works best when used to bet on even-money sports odds.
This betting system is as easy as a rock. All it requires is that you place bets in a sequence of 1 unit > 3 units > 2 units > 6 units. If all these wagers win, great job! If one of them fails, reset to step one.
1-3-2-6 Betting System Pros and Cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| - It's extremely simple. | - The system is only profitable if your winning streaks fall on units 2 and 4. |
| - It aims to capitalize on the winning streak. Perfect when betting on sports you know a lot about. | - The 1-3-2-6 betting system is not foolproof. Only use it after you've gained confidence in your betting accuracy. |
| - The system is applicable in most casino games and sports. Works best with even money odds. | |
| - It does not require a significant bankroll to use. Although the bankroll should still be larger than in similar systems. |
Best Value Bets in Different Sports
Although sports betting remains consistent in its mechanisms regardless of the sport (or esports) you choose, some minor differences make certain picks better. Let's take a look at some of the most popular and value bets across popular sports.
Soccer Betting: 1X2
Betting on football matches (not to be confused with American Football) and 1X2 are pretty much synonymous. In this betting market, 1 stands for home team win, X stands for draw, and 2 stands for away team win. Since ties are common in football, 1x2 is a classic, popular, and rewarding bet. 1x2 is a well-known example of a simple moneyline bet, but it still requires some sports and team knowledge to pull off. A typical 1x2 football bet won't include overtime.
Basketball Betting: Over/Under
Contrary to football, in basketball, ties are extremely rare (although still possible). While 1x2-type bets exist in this sports discipline, they're overshadowed by over/under bet markets. Here's a TL;DR: Over/Under bets (also called Totals): punters wager whether the total score will be over or under a certain threshold set by the bookmaker. This score can be anything - from the actual in-game score to the number of shots or even fouls. Totals betting is a good fit for basketball because it's a very high-scoring sport.
Tennis Betting: Set Betting
Set betting is an interesting spin on tennis rules. Since tennis matches are resolved via sets - and most competitions are either best-of-3 or best-of-5 - bettors wager on the number of sets it will take to resolve a game. It's sorta like over/under, but not quite since usually we need to guess the correct number of sets down to the tee.
This sports term means that a match must play out an X amount of sets, games, laps, etc., to finalize. For example, in a best-of-7 tennis match, the player who wins 7 sets first takes the whole match. In an esports setting, a League of Legends best-of-3 match ends when one team wins 3 maps.
Ice Hockey Betting: Puck Line
At first glance, the puck line seems like a betting market unique to ice hockey. However, it's simply a fancy name hockey fans have for handicaps (or point spreads). Still, the fact that it's named differently here speaks volumes of its popularity—betting on the puck line is the preferred way of wagering among ice hockey enthusiasts. Since Ice Hockey is a low-scoring sport, like soccer, the puck line is usually set to a relatively small number, like +1.5.
Esports Betting: Prop Bets
Esports includes an incredible variety of titles and genres. From team-based first-person shooters and MOBAs to racing games, real-time strategies, two-person fighting games, racing sims, and so on. The only thing all these games have in common is the variety of betting markets they have. Prop bets capitalize on these unique mechanics, bringing something new to each of them.
A prop bet is a wager made on an aspect of the game that isn't the game's outcome or score-based. It can include player performance (like the number of shots in basketball), but it can also include something completely silly. The nonsensical prop bets on Super Bowl national anthem duration come to mind!