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Stage 13 gave the general classification riders a comparative break from the high mountains, with 192.8km of continually rolling terrain from Almuñécar to Loja. Wout van Aert attacked late to take the stage win, adding to his points tally without any change at the head of the overall standings. Enric Mas (Movistar) stayed in red, and the gaps established on Calar Alto two days earlier were carried intact into the third weekend of the race: 1:45 over Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and 2:06 over Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM), with Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) fourth at 3:53 and Jakob Omrzel (Bahrain Victorious) sixth at 4:59 after moving into the top ten with his win on stage 12.
The day was not without consequences. Gregor Mühlberger crashed out of the race while sitting ninth overall, removing a rider from the top ten and, more significantly for Saturday, taking one of Decathlon CMA CGM’s strongest mountain domestiques away from Gall. In the mountains classification, Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) continues to lead after riding aggressively on both of the previous mountain stages, and the polka dot standings were not materially altered by a stage without high-category climbing. In the white jersey competition, Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos) remains under pressure from Omrzel following his losses on Calar Alto.
Stage 14: The Route and Its Challenges
Stage 14 runs 154.5km from Jaén to the summit of the Sierra de la Pandera, with some listings giving the distance as 152.7km. Elevation gain is put at between 4,060m and 4,338m depending on the source, with most estimates falling in the 4,100m to 4,300m range. The neutralised start is scheduled for 13:15 CEST and the stage is expected to finish between approximately 17:19 and 17:30 CEST. It is classified as a mountain stage and finishes at 1,820m above sea level.
The route offers virtually no genuine flat road. The riders leave Jaén climbing gently towards Mancha Real and complete a rolling 69.7km loop through the roads around Torres, Pegalajar and La Guardia de Jaén before returning to the start town. The profile repeatedly rises and falls throughout that opening section, accumulating altitude well before the first categorised climb, which means the early part of the day is more demanding than the absence of mountain points suggests. Heat is the additional factor: temperatures are forecast at around 35°C at the start and close to 29°C at the finish despite the altitude, under sunny skies and light winds, on exposed roads with little shade.
The first categorised ascent, the Puerto de los Villares, begins around 80km into the stage and measures 10.5km at 5.4%, topping out at 1,190m with 61.7km remaining. The gradient is moderate enough that the leading teams should still have numbers around them, but the climb is the natural point at which rivals can begin stripping riders away from Movistar without asking Roglič or Gall to commit personally. A descent and roughly 20km of rolling roads towards Fuensanta de Martos and Castillo de Locubín follow, taking in the intermediate sprint at Castillo de Locubín with 30.9km to go.
The Puerto de Locubín is 8.7km at 5.1% and crests with 21.3km left. Again the gradient is unremarkable, but the timing is not: anyone distanced there has very little road in which to reorganise. From the summit the route drops towards Valdepeñas de Jaén, where a short punchy ramp ushers in the finale, followed by a brief descent and a false-flat drag to the foot of the final climb.
| Climb / point | Category | Details | To go |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puerto de los Villares | 2 | 10.5km at 5.4%, summit 1,190m | 61.7km |
| Castillo de Locubín | Intermediate sprint | Sprint points on the valley road between the two category 2 climbs, at km 123.6 | 30.9km |
| Puerto de Locubín | 2 | 8.7km at 5.1%, summit 1,090m | 21.3km |
| Muro de Valdepeñas de Jaén | Uncategorised | 0.6km at over 10%, between Puerto de Locubín and the foot of La Pandera | Not published |
| Sierra de la Pandera | 1 | 11.9km at 7.2%, summit 1,820m | Summit finish |
The final climb
The Sierra de la Pandera is officially listed at 11.9km averaging 7.2%, with 860m of vertical gain, though the average is misleading. The lower slopes are manageable, but the character changes once the road turns towards the summit with around 8.4km remaining, becoming narrower, more irregular and repeatedly moving into double figures before easing again. The hardest section starts with roughly 4.5km to go, where the road holds double-digit gradients for two kilometres, including a ramp reported at 15% shortly before the flamme rouge and pitches quoted as high as 16% to 21%. In the final kilometre the road initially descends before rising again over the closing few hundred metres. That combination makes a steady rhythm almost impossible to hold and leaves little room for a struggling rider to conceal a bad day.
With three climbs packed into the last 62km and no long valley in which teams can regroup, the finale should reach the base of the Pandera already reduced, with several leaders down to one teammate or fully isolated. A breakaway can lose time very quickly once the GC teams hit the approach roads at full speed, which means a group of strong climbers may need five or six minutes rather than two or three to survive.
Source: procyclingstats.com
Favourites for the Stage
Enric Mas is the favourite. The Movistar rider inherited red after Tadej Pogačar’s crash but has since made the lead his own, winning on the Alto de Aitana on stage 9 and then attacking with 13km remaining on Calar Alto to take 27 seconds out of Roglič, Gall and Carapaz. With the 32.1km individual time trial to Jerez de la Frontera on stage 18 still ahead, where Roglič should be expected to gain, Mas has a clear incentive to keep taking time rather than simply following wheels.
- Enric Mas (Movistar)
- Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
- Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM)
- Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
- Jakob Omrzel (Bahrain Victorious)
- Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos)
- Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike)
- Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious)
- Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
- Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana)
- Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step)
- Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step)
- Jarno Widar (Lotto Intermarché)
- Jørgen Nordhagen (Visma | Lease a Bike)
- Urko Berrade (Equipo Kern Pharma)
- Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious)
- Jack Haig (Netcompany-Ineos)
- Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost)
- Harold Tejada (XDS Astana)
- Jan Hirt (NSN)
- Guillaume Martin (Groupama-FDJ United)
On a four-star scale, Mas stands alone at four stars: no rider has been able to follow his accelerations in this race, and the profile of the Pandera does not obviously undermine him. Roglič and Gall occupy the three-star tier. Roglič’s explosive acceleration is well suited to the irregular upper ramps and he has built four Vuelta wins on climbs of this type, while Gall should welcome a long, sustained final ascent, albeit with reduced support following Mühlberger’s withdrawal. The two-star group covers Carapaz, the last winner on this summit in 2022 and a rider who thrives when a climb becomes unpredictable, together with Buitrago, Kuss, Omrzel and Onley. Buitrago has mountains points to defend and freedom to attack while Bahrain protect Omrzel behind; Kuss has stated a preference for a stage win over a minor GC placing; Omrzel’s move into the top ten may force him to race alongside the favourites rather than up the road; and Onley faces an immediate test of whether his Calar Alto losses were a consequence of his crash. The one-star bracket contains the breakaway candidates: Skjelmose, Fortunato, Paret-Peintre, Landa, Widar, Nordhagen, Berrade, Bilbao, Haig, Steinhauser, Tejada, Hirt and Martin, all of whom sit far enough down the classification to be given room and have the climbing ability to use it.
Prediction
The pick for the stage is Enric Mas ahead of Primož Roglič and Felix Gall. The reasoning follows the star ratings and the shape of the finale. Movistar have no need to chase a harmless breakaway, but the responsibility for controlling the race falls on Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, Decathlon CMA CGM and EF Education-EasyPost, all of whom have reasons to want the stage within reach: bonus seconds matter to Roglič, who cannot rely indefinitely on stage 18, and Gall and Carapaz both need time rather than parity. If those teams keep the gap manageable, the closing four kilometres are steep and irregular enough to produce a selection among the GC group, and Mas has twice demonstrated this month that he can attack on exactly that kind of terrain and hold the effort to the line. Roglič is placed second on the basis of his acceleration on the steepest ramps and the fact that he needs to arrest the direction of the race, with Gall third given that the sustained nature of the climb suits him but Decathlon’s reduced depth may force him to respond earlier than he would like. A breakaway victory remains a genuine possibility if a group without GC relevance is allowed five or six minutes before Los Villares, in which case Buitrago, Fortunato, Paret-Peintre or one of the younger climbers would be the most likely winner.
Whatever the outcome on the summit, stage 14 is the last mountain-top finish of the second week and the final major opportunity for Mas’s rivals to alter the balance before the race reaches the time trial. Roglič does not need to recover his full deficit on Saturday, but 20 or 30 seconds would change the tone of the final week, while another loss would leave Red Bull dependent on a single day against the clock. For Onley, Omrzel and the riders behind, the Pandera will also shape the white jersey and the fight for the remaining top-five places. On a climb that has never failed to leave a mark on the general classification in six previous visits, the third weekend of this Vuelta should clarify a great deal.
Summary
- Stage distance: 154.5km, Jaén to Sierra de la Pandera (some listings give 152.7km)
- Terrain type: Mountain stage with a summit finish at 1,820m
- Elevation gain: Approximately 4,100m to 4,300m (listed between 4,060m and 4,338m)
- Key climbs: Puerto de los Villares (cat. 2, 10.5km at 5.4%, 61.7km to go); Puerto de Locubín (cat. 2, 8.7km at 5.1%, 21.3km to go); Sierra de la Pandera (cat. 1, 11.9km at 7.2%, summit finish, with double-digit gradients from around 4.5km to go and ramps reported up to 21%)
- Intermediate sprint: Castillo de Locubín, 30.9km to go
- Conditions: Hot and sunny, around 35°C at the start and close to 29°C at the finish, light winds, exposed roads with little shade
- Favourite for the win: Enric Mas (Movistar) — the preview pick and the rider most sources also list as the stage favourite
- Predicted podium: 1. Enric Mas (Movistar), 2. Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 3. Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM)
- Start time: 13:15 CEST; expected finish approximately 17:19–17:30 CEST