Liam Duckstein
Stage four of the Tour de France 2026 delivered another chapter in what has become a fascinating early week for the breakaway specialists. Trek committed several riders to the day’s escape, a strategy aimed squarely at setting up Mads Pedersen for the stage win. It proved to be a well-executed team performance, with Trek controlling the move from start to finish. Not every rider in the race enjoyed the same fortune, however. Both O’Brien and Jaikualula finished outside the time limit and have consequently been eliminated from the general classification race.
As widely anticipated, the general classification contenders used the stage as a recovery day, rolling in together roughly 13 minutes behind the day’s main action. That approach reshuffled the overall standings considerably. Soren Waerenskjold now holds the race lead, with Sean Quinn and Mads Pedersen close behind him on general classification. Tadej Pogacar, by contrast, sits at nearly eight minutes down, a gap that reflects his team’s deliberate decision to let the breakaway ride away without contest. Pedersen’s strong showing in the stage also earned him the green jersey for the points classification, while Boudat continues to hold onto the polka dot jersey in the mountains competition.
Stage 5: The Route and Its Challenges
Attention now turns to stage five, a shorter 158-kilometre route that marks the first real chance for the pure sprinters to shine. Despite its modest length, the stage is not without its complications. Riders will need to negotiate a demanding sequence of three short, sharp climbs positioned roughly 26 kilometres from the finish line: one kilometre at 7 percent, 600 metres at 8.6 percent, and a final one-kilometre ramp at 9 percent. That trio of climbs, while brief, arrives late enough in the stage to tempt some riders into trying their luck with an attack.
Mathieu van der Poel is one name that stands out as a potential opportunist on that terrain, and if he is feeling strong on the day, he could be the rider most likely to attempt a late split. That said, with a fast-charging peloton behind and still 26 kilometres of racing left after the climbs, the more probable outcome is that the bunch reels in any dangerous moves and delivers a mass sprint finish.
Source: procyclingstats.com
Favourites for the Stage
According to the betting markets at the time of writing, Tim Merlier enters the stage as the clear favourite. A number of other fast finishers and versatile riders are also worth watching closely:
- Merlier at Soudal Quick-Step
- Ganna or Hodon at Ineos
- Van der Poel or Philipsen at Alpecin-Fenix
- Bitner at BikeExchange-Jayco
- Ballerini at Astana
- Matthews at Jayco and Pedersen at Lidl-Trek
- Girmay at Intermarché-Wanty
- Waerenskjold at Uno-X
- Frison at Cofidis
- Gaviria at Caja Rural
- Declercq at TotalEnergies
- Olav Kooij at Jumbo-Visma
In terms of star ratings for the day, Merlier and Philipsen are rated as the top four-star favourites. Pedersen and Kooij follow with three stars apiece. Girmay, Frison and Declercq are each given two stars, while Mathieu van der Poel, Waerenskjold and Bitner round out the list with one star each.
Betting Odds for Stage Five
The betting markets reflect a similar hierarchy, with Merlier and Philipsen positioned as the two most likely stage winners, followed by a chasing group led by Girmay and Kooij.
| Selection | Stake | BC.Game | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Merlier | 2.63 | 2.85 | 3.00 |
| Jasper Philipsen | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Biniam Girmay | 4.33 | 5.25 | 6.00 |
| Olav Kooij | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.50 |
| Mads Pedersen | 15.00 | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| Milan Fretin | 34.00 | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| Mathieu van der Poel | 29.00 | 34.00 | 51.00 |
| Max Kanter | 51.00 | 81.00 | 34.00 |
| Soren Waerenskjold | 81.00 | 81.00 | 67.00 |
| Arvid De Kleijn | 100.00 | 81.00 | 100.00 |
| Fernando Gaviria | 100.00 | 81.00 | 81.00 |
| Dorian Godon | 100.00 | 81.00 | 100.00 |
| Mathias Vacek | 67.00 | 81.00 | 125.00 |
Summary
- Stage distance: 157.99 km, flat terrain, first true test for the sprinters’ teams
- Total elevation gain: approximately 1,505 m
- Key obstacle: a late succession of three short climbs 26 km from the finish (1 km at 7%, 600 m at 8.6%, 1 km at 9%)
- Schedule: start at 14:15 CET, with an estimated finish between 17:37 and 17:56 CET in Pau
- Favourite for the win: Tim Merlier (per this preview’s star ratings; betting markets also list him as the narrow favourite ahead of Jasper Philipsen)
- Predicted podium: 1. Jasper Philipsen, 2. Tim Merlier, 3. Coquard
With the general classification group content to sit up and protect their overnight positions, stage five shapes up as a rare formality for the breakaway before the sprinters reassert control. The late trio of short, steep ramps 26 km from the line won’t be long enough to trouble the strongest sprinters, but they could be just enough to soften the legs of some fast finishers and open the door for a puncheur like Van der Poel to try something before the charging peloton inevitably brings it back together in Pau.