Liam Duckstein
The 2026 Tour de France will open with a 19.6-kilometre team time trial, a discipline that has become increasingly rare on the modern racing calendar. The stage finishes with a demanding 800-metre stretch at a 7% gradient, where individual rider times will be recorded as they cross the line. Across the full route, riders will face a total of 220 metres of climbing. Weather conditions are expected to be hot and dry, with steady wind throughout the day for all competing teams, meaning conditions should not play a significant role in shaping the outcome.
Because Stage 1 is a team time trial, betting markets for the stage are built around which team wins, rather than which individual rider. Bettors have the opportunity to back a squad across a range of sportsbooks, with prices varying depending on the bookmaker.
A Difficult Discipline to Predict
Because team time trials no longer feature regularly in professional cycling, recent form is harder to use as a predictive tool than it would be for more common stage types. Even so, several results from the current season and the year before offer some useful context.
In March 2025, Visma-Lease a Bike won the team time trial at Paris-Nice, finishing ahead of Jayco and Red Bull, with Trek in fourth and Ineos Grenadiers in fifth. Later that year, at the Vuelta a España, UAE Team Emirates took the top spot ahead of Visma-Lease a Bike, with Trek third, Red Bull fourth, and Ineos Grenadiers fifth.
More recently, in this year’s edition of Paris-Nice, the balance of power shifted again, with Ineos Grenadiers claiming victory ahead of Trek, Decathlon, Visma-Lease a Bike, and Red Bull. At the Critérium du Dauphiné, Visma-Lease a Bike returned to form, winning ahead of Ineos and EF Education.
Source: procyclingstats.com
Assessing Team Strength Through Individual Time Trial Ability
Team time trial results are closely tied to the individual time-trialling ability of the riders that make up each squad. With that in mind, looking at which riders sit inside the world’s top 100 time triallists offers a useful indicator of which teams are best placed to stay together as a unit and maximise their chances on the opening stage.
By this measure, Ineos Grenadiers stand out as the strongest team on paper. The squad includes six riders ranked inside the global top 100, three of whom — Ganna, Aresman, and Foss — sit inside the top 10 specialists in the discipline. Ganna’s individual engine is considered a particular advantage for the team.
UAE Team Emirates also field a notably deep roster, with the entire team ranked inside the top 100, though only Tadej Pogačar and Isaac Del Toro sit within the top 10. Visma-Lease a Bike bring four riders inside the top 100, with Armirail and Jonas Vingegaard both ranked among the top 10 specialists. The team also has Victor Campenaerts as an additional option — a rider who has focused less on time-trialling in recent seasons but remains a strong performer against the clock.
Red Bull’s hopes rest primarily on the reigning world champion, alongside Lipowitz, who currently sits fifth in the individual time trial rankings. Trek also cannot be overlooked, fielding five riders inside the global top 100. Jayco Alula, meanwhile, will rely on Luke Plapp and Schmidt to carry their chances.
Most of the remaining teams have only one recognised time trial specialist, or none at all. Decathlon is a partial exception, with a rider sitting just outside the individual top 10.
Tour de France Stage 1 Winner Betting Odds
Stage 1 Team Winner Odds
Since Stage 1 is contested as a team time trial, the winner market is priced by squad rather than by individual rider. These odds reflect the bookmakers’ assessment of each team’s collective time-trialling strength, recent form, and course characteristics.
| Team | Fractional | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ineos Grenadiers | 10/11 | 1.91 | -110 |
| UAE Team Emirates XRG | 5/2 | 3.50 | +250 |
| Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe | 9/2 | 5.50 | +450 |
| Team Visma-Lease a Bike | 8/1 | 9.00 | +800 |
| Lidl-Trek | 12/1 | 13.00 | +1200 |
| Team Jayco AlUla | 25/1 | 26.00 | +2500 |
| EF Education-EasyPost | 50/1 | 51.00 | +5000 |
| Alpecin-Deceuninck | 66/1 | 67.00 | +6600 |
| Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 80/1 | 81.00 | +8000 |
| Soudal-Quick Step | 150/1 | 151.00 | +15000 |
| Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling | 250/1 | 251.00 | +25000 |
Prediction
For the stage win and the first yellow jersey of the race, Ineos Grenadiers are the pick, with either Filippo Ganna or Aresman expected to take the individual honour. The combination of Ganna, Plapp, Aresman and a strong supporting group is viewed as giving the team a meaningful edge over its rivals — a view the betting markets clearly share, with Ineos priced as odds-on favourites. UAE Team Emirates are predicted to finish second, with Trek completing the podium in third.
Summary
- Stage distance: 19.6 km team time trial
- Finish: 800 m at 7% gradient, individual times taken
- Total elevation gain: 220 m
- Conditions: hot, dry, consistent wind for all teams
- Favourite team: Ineos Grenadiers (10/11 with bet365)
- Predicted podium: 1. Ineos Grenadiers, 2. UAE Team Emirates, 3. Lidl-Trek
With little recent precedent to draw on, the opening team time trial of the 2026 Tour de France is expected to hinge on the depth of individual time-trialling talent within each squad. On that basis, and reflected in the betting markets, Ineos Grenadiers head into the stage as the team best equipped to convert its collective strength into an early race lead.