Mykyta Nitchenko
The first nine days of the 2026 Tour de France have covered roughly 43 percent of the total race distance and 40 percent of the overall climbing. Visma-Lease a Bike won the opening team time trial ahead of Ineos, UAE, Trek, and Red Bull, before Pogačar took control on stage two, allowing Del Toro the win while only Evenepoel and Vingegaard stayed with him. Pogačar added a stage three win in Les Angles, Mads Pedersen took stage four out of a Trek-led breakaway, and Kooij claimed his first Tour stage win on stage five ahead of Ganna and Merlier.
The race shifted on stage six, when Pogačar rode clear alone on the Tourmalet with 42 kilometres to go, finishing 2:38 ahead of Vingegaard and nearly three minutes clear of Del Toro, Evenepoel, and Skjelmose. Merlier won stages seven and eight in succession, and a shortened, heat-affected stage nine ended with Mathieu van der Poel attacking on the Mont Bessou and winning from a reduced group. Heading into the rest day, Pogačar leads overall, with Bernal up to tenth. Pedersen extended his points lead over Ghirmay and Madouas, while the mountains classification remains largely unchanged.
Stage 10: The Route and Its Challenges
Stage 10 runs 166.6 kilometres from Aurillac to Le Lioran and includes 3,791 metres of vertical gain, making it a demanding return to racing straight out of the first rest day. The stage’s decisive terrain comes in the form of the Puy Mary followed by the Col de Pertus, a combination that is expected to shape the finale. The Col de Pertus is 4.4 kilometres long at an average gradient of 8.5 percent, with some double-digit sections, and its summit falls 14 kilometres from the finish line. From there, the final five kilometres into Le Lioran continue to climb, and the finishing kilometre itself averages 4.2 percent, leaving no flat run-in to soften the effort for any rider arriving at the front.
This layout favours attacking racing from distance rather than a controlled sprint finish. A rider or group going clear over the top of the Puy Mary would have the irregular slopes of the Col de Pertus to extend an advantage, followed by a genuinely uphill finish that rewards sustained climbing over a short, sharp effort. The profile is well suited to a breakaway succeeding, provided the move is strong enough and the gap heading into the final climbs is substantial, but it also gives general classification contenders a course on which to test rivals if the front group comes back together.
Source: procyclingstats.com
Favourites for the Stage
Tadej Pogačar is the outright favourite for Stage 10. His level throughout the first week, including the solo move on the Tourmalet, makes him the rider most capable of winning the stage outright if he chooses to contest it.
- Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step)
- Ben Aresman (Ineos)
- Tadej Pogačar, Isaac Del Toro, Brandon McNulty, or Sean Yates (UAE)
- Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
- Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious)
- Richard Carapaz, Bodnar, or Ben Healy (EF)
- Remco Evenepoel or Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull Bora)
- Einer Rubio (Movistar)
- Harold Tejada (Astana)
- Ben O’Connor or Jay Vine (Alula)
- Derek Gee (Lidl-Trek)
- Tom Pidcock or Harper (Pinarello)
- Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Dstny)
- Izagirre (Cofidis)
- Skjelmose (TotalEnergies)
- Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X)
- Storer or Wærenskjold (Tudor)
- Paul Ourselin (Decathlon)
In terms of the preview’s star ratings, Pogačar is rated the sole four-star favourite for the stage, reflecting the view that he wins if he decides to go for it. Del Toro, Evenepoel, and Carapaz are each rated three stars. Pidcock, Vingegaard, and Tobias Halland Johannessen follow with two stars apiece, while Aresman, Rubio, and Padun round out the list with one star each.
Betting Odds for Stage 10
The betting markets for Stage 10 place Pogačar as the clear favourite for the win, with a notable gap to the next tier of contenders led by Carapaz and Del Toro. Several markets also cover top-3 and top-10 finishes for specific riders. The full odds are listed below.
| Selection | Stake | BC.Game | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogacar | 1.57 | 1.73 | 1.57 |
| Tom Pidcock Stage 10 Top 10 Finish | 2.75 | – | – |
| Richard Carapaz Stage 10 Top 3 Finish | 4.50 | – | – |
| Richard Carapaz | 12.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| Isaac Del Toro | 11.00 | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| Jonas Vingegaard Hansen | 19.00 | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| Tobias Halland Johannessen | 19.00 | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| Remco Evenepoel | 26.00 | 34.00 | 29.00 |
| Valentin Paret-Peintre | 34.00 | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| Ben Healy | 34.00 | 41.00 | 34.00 |
| Lenny Martinez | 34.00 | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| Tom Pidcock | 29.00 | 51.00 | 29.00 |
| Paul Seixas | 41.00 | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| Einer Rubio | 67.00 | 67.00 | 67.00 |
| Ben OConnor | 51.00 | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| Alex Baudin | 51.00 | 67.00 | 51.00 |
| Brandon McNulty | 67.00 | 67.00 | 67.00 |
| Florian Lipowitz | 100.00 | 81.00 | 100.00 |
| Harold Tejada | 100.00 | 67.00 | 100.00 |
Prediction
The prediction for Stage 10 favours a breakaway success rather than a Pogačar victory, with Richard Carapaz picked to win ahead of Tom Pidcock and Padun. This call is consistent with the star ratings, which place Pogačar alone at four stars as the man most capable of controlling the stage but do not guarantee he will contest it, while Carapaz sits among the three-star group as a rider well suited to the Puy Mary and Col de Pertus combination. The finishing terrain, with its irregular climbing and uphill run to the line, plays to the strengths of a strong climber attacking from range rather than a pure sprint or a short, explosive move, supporting the view that a well-organised breakaway can hold off the reduced group behind.
Summary
- Distance: 166.6 km
- Terrain type: Mountain stage
- Elevation gain: 3,791 m
- Key climbs: Puy Mary; Col de Pertus (4.4 km at 8.5%, summit 14 km from the finish)
- Conditions: Uphill finish into Le Lioran, final kilometre at 4.2%
- Favourite for the win: Tadej Pogačar (agreed by both the preview’s star ratings and the betting market); however, the preview’s predicted stage winner, Richard Carapaz, is expected to emerge from the breakaway rather than Pogačar contesting the win
- Predicted podium: 1. Richard Carapaz, 2. Tom Pidcock, 3. Padun
Wrap-up
Stage 10 marks the return to racing after the first rest day and opens a second week that mixes sprint opportunities on stages 11 and 12 with further mountain tests on stages 13 and 14, ahead of a stage 15 that looks suited to the general classification contenders. With Pogačar holding a substantial overall lead and the points and mountains classifications already showing clear leaders in Pedersen and the current polka dot holder, Stage 10 offers both a chance for the breakaway specialists to add to their tallies and a reminder that the main GC battle remains some way off resolution.