Sofia Quijada
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Real Madrid Women take on Ajax Women in the second leg of UEFA Women’s Champions League Qualification Round 3 at the Estadio Alfredo di Stefano. The first leg ended 2-0 to Real Madrid, giving Alberto Toril’s side a commanding advantage heading into this decider. Ajax need to overturn that deficit to progress, which makes Jeff Strasser’s tactical approach the defining storyline of the night. Real Madrid’s recent form has been outstanding, winning six of their last seven matches, and the hosts are heavy favorites at 82% win probability.
Two players stand out as potential match-winners. Felicia Schröder has been in electric form for Real Madrid, scoring four goals in her last three appearances while also picking up a red card, so discipline will matter. For Ajax, Xanne Kip brings energy in midfield with goals and assists across six recent outings, and her ability to drive play forward is Ajax’s best hope of forcing the tie open.
A hot stat worth noting: Ajax averaged 10.4 shots per game across their last five matches, significantly outpacing Real Madrid’s 7.4, yet Real Madrid scored more goals (7 vs. 6). That conversion efficiency gap is telling.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Women’s Champions League 2026/27, Qualification Round 3 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Alfredo di Stefano, Madrid |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Real Madrid (w) vs Ajax (w) Prediction
Real Madrid already hold a 2-0 first-leg lead, and with the match at home in front of their own fans, the pressure is almost entirely on Ajax. Real Madrid’s defensive structure has been solid, conceding just two goals across their last five matches while their attack, led by Schröder’s recent purple patch, has found the net consistently. Ajax do create chances, as their shot volume confirms, but they convert poorly and Real Madrid’s backline has shown it can handle pressure.
The most valuable bet here is Real Madrid to win. At 1.11, the moneyline is short, so the better value lies in backing a clean sheet or a comfortable margin. Real Madrid’s pass accuracy across five matches stands at 273 correct passes versus Ajax’s 849, reflecting very different styles. Ajax play a possession-heavy game with high pass volume, but their 19 fouls in five games suggests they get frustrated when pressed. Real Madrid, more direct and clinical, commit fewer fouls (10) and generate cleaner chances. That tactical contrast favors the hosts in a controlled, low-risk second leg.
We predict Real Madrid will manage the tie rather than chase goals, keeping it tight at the back while looking to punish Ajax on the counter, much as they did in the first leg.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Real Madrid (w) to keep a clean sheet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Real Madrid Women have been in excellent shape, winning six of their last seven matches with their only loss coming against Sevilla (2-4) in a match that looks like an outlier given their wider run of form. They bounced back immediately, beating Tottenham 2-1 and Deportivo La Coruña 2-1 before a 3-2 win over Atletico Madrid confirmed they are comfortable in tight games. The first leg against Ajax, a 2-0 victory, was their most recent outing and showed a disciplined, well-organized performance. Janou Levels contributed two goals from defense across this run, adding an unexpected attacking dimension, while Andreia Jacinto has chipped in with two assists in her three appearances.
Ajax Women arrive here having lost the first leg 0-2 and facing a steep mountain. Their last five matches before this tie showed a side capable of winning, with victories over Zwolle (1-0), Utrecht (1-0), Rangers (2-1), and Brondby (2-0). The Brondby win was particularly impressive given Brondby’s recent form. Sherida Spitse and N. Noordam have been the creative core, and Katja Snoeijs leads the attacking line with five offside calls in six games suggesting she is making aggressive runs in behind. Ajax’s high pass volume (1,032 passes in five matches) reflects their preference for building through the ball, but they must trade that patience for urgency here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Real Madrid (w) vs Ajax (w) stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Real Madrid (w) the Favourite
- Moneyline Real Madrid (w) 1.11 | Ajax (w) 13.00
- Draw 8.00
The odds reflect the first-leg advantage and Real Madrid’s overall quality gap. At 1.11, backing Real Madrid outright offers minimal return, but the 82% win probability is well-supported by form, home advantage, and the two-goal cushion. Ajax at 13.00 is a long shot for good reason. The draw at 8.00 is only realistic if Ajax score early and Real Madrid sit back, which Toril’s side has not shown a tendency to do. The smart angle is to build around Real Madrid’s defensive solidity rather than the raw moneyline price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Real Madrid (w) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Merle Frohms
- DF: María Méndez, Bella Astrid Christina Andersson, Eva Maria Navarro, Janou Levels
- MF: Andreia Jacinto, Sandie Toletti, Lotte Jasmijn Keukelaar
- FW: Felicia Schröder, Elisa Senss, Lineth Beerensteyn
Real Madrid line up in their familiar 4-3-3, with Merle Frohms providing reliability in goal across all three tracked matches. Janou Levels at left back is more than a defensive option, she has scored twice from that position and offers a genuine attacking outlet. Felicia Schröder leads the line as the standout performer in recent weeks. Andreia Jacinto anchors the midfield with two assists and strong passing numbers, and Sandie Toletti adds goal threat from the middle third.
Ajax (w) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Femke Liefting
- DF: Anna Knol, Sari Kees, Nurija Van Schoonhoven, Amber Visscher
- MF: Sherida Spitse, N. Noordam, Xanne Kip
- FW: Katja Snoeijs, Elisa Van Dijk, M. van Koppen
Ajax set up in a 4-3-3 as well, with Femke Liefting as the starting goalkeeper based on playing time. Anna Knol and Sari Kees form the central defensive partnership with the highest pass volumes in the squad, underlining Ajax’s build-from-the-back approach. Sherida Spitse brings experience in the engine room, and N. Noordam, with two assists and a goal across six games, is the most direct creative threat. Katja Snoeijs leads the line and needs to stay onside more consistently to make her runs count.
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Ajax (w). Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Real Madrid Women are in control of this tie and have every reason to manage it sensibly at home. Their conversion efficiency, defensive organization, and home record all point in one direction. Ajax create shots but lack the finishing quality to trouble a side this settled. We predict a Real Madrid win, with the clean sheet market offering the best value given their backline has conceded just twice in their last five games. Ajax’s 12 offsides across five matches hint at a forward line that is often caught out of position, which works in Real Madrid’s favor defensively.
We predict Real Madrid to win 2-0, progress to the next round, and keep Ajax scoreless for the second consecutive match.
