Sofia Quijada
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The Bogotá derby returns in the 2026 Clausura as Santa Fe host Millonarios. Both clubs are rooted in the Colombian capital, making this one of the most charged fixtures in South American club football. Millonarios sit five places above Santa Fe in the current Clausura standings, arriving with a cleaner defensive record and more consistent recent form, which sets up an interesting dynamic where the home side needs points badly and the visitors have every reason to play controlled, disciplined football.
Two players stand out heading into this match. For Millonarios, Francisco Chaverra has been their most productive attacking presence over the last five games, contributing 1 goal and 1 assist while generating 17 shots, the highest shot volume in either squad. For Santa Fe, Hugo Rodallega remains the focal point up front, registering a goal in four of the last five appearances despite limited service, and his aerial threat on set pieces could be decisive in a low-scoring derby.
A notable stat from recent games: Santa Fe’s match against River Plate ended 9-8 on aggregate across two legs, signaling a chaotic cup-style context, but in their four most recent competitive matches they scored just 3 goals and kept two clean sheets, pointing to a more measured defensive structure under Pablo Repetto.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026 – Clausura |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:25 CEST |
Santa Fe vs Millonarios Prediction
Millonarios are the slight bookmaker favourite at 38% implied probability, and the H2H record backs that lean heavily. In the last ten meetings, Millonarios have won five, Santa Fe just two, with three draws. Millonarios have also kept a clean sheet in four of those ten encounters, and Santa Fe have failed to score in six of them. That pattern, combined with Millonarios’ current Clausura form of three wins and two draws in six games, points toward a tight match where the visitors manage the result.
We predict a Millonarios win or draw as the most realistic outcome. The value angle sits on Millonarios on the double chance (draw or Millonarios win), given Santa Fe have not lost in their last seven matches but have drawn four of them, and Millonarios have not lost in their last five. A goalless or 1-0 scoreline is well within range.
On style, Santa Fe average 51 fouls across five matches compared to Millonarios’ 58, meaning Millonarios are the more physical side. Millonarios also average 13 yellow cards over five matches versus Santa Fe’s 6, which reflects a more aggressive pressing approach. Santa Fe hold a slight passing accuracy edge (1360 accurate passes to Millonarios’ 1168), suggesting Repetto’s side prefers to build through possession. Millonarios’ higher foul rate could work against them in a tight derby where free kicks in dangerous areas become a factor, and Santa Fe do average 67 free kicks per five games to Millonarios’ 48.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Millonarios to keep a clean sheet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Santa Fe enter this derby having gone unbeaten across their last seven matches, with three wins and four draws. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw against Junior Barranquilla, a result that continued the pattern of Santa Fe grinding out points without dominance. Before that, the two-legged tie against River Plate (Uruguay) produced an extraordinary aggregate of 9-8 across both matches, but those were cup fixtures against a side ranked 128th globally. The two Clausura matches before those, a goalless draw with América de Cali and a 2-0 win over Boyacá Chico, are more representative of Santa Fe’s actual league level. In the Clausura table, they sit 13th with 6 points from 5 games, which is a concern given the quality of Millonarios they are about to face.
Millonarios have been quietly efficient. Their most recent match was a goalless draw with Internacional de Bogotá, a side sitting 11th in the table, which is the only blemish in a five-match unbeaten run. Before that, they beat Llaneros 2-0, drew 1-1 with Águilas Doradas, beat Deportivo Pasto 2-0, and edged Junior Barranquilla 1-0. That sequence shows a team that does not concede often, scoring in every match except the most recent, and managing games efficiently under Fabián Bustos. Sitting 5th in the Clausura with 11 points, they are well-placed for a playoff push.
🚨Check out our dedicated Santa Fe vs Millonarios stats page for more info.
The H2H goal tally across the last ten meetings tells the story clearly: Millonarios have scored 11 to Santa Fe’s 7. In the most recent encounter this year, the Apertura clash ended 1-1, but Millonarios won both the 2025 Clausura meetings and took the 2024 Clausura matchups as well. Santa Fe’s last H2H win came in the 2025 Apertura Group B stage. This is a rivalry where Millonarios have held the edge for an extended period.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Millonarios the Favourite
- Moneyline Santa Fe 2.75 | Millonarios 2.50
- Draw 3.10
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Bovada prices Millonarios at 2.50, which translates to around 40% implied probability, closely matching the bookmaker average of 38%. Santa Fe at 2.75 reflects genuine home advantage in a derby, but their 13th-place Clausura standing and the H2H record make that price hard to back as a straight win. The draw at 3.10 has some appeal given both teams have drawn heavily in recent weeks, but Millonarios’ defensive solidity makes the away win the cleaner selection at current pricing.
Possible Starting Lineups
Santa Fe Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Weibmar Asprilla
- DF: Emanuel Olivera, Jeison Angulo, Helibelton Palacios, Christian Mafla
- MF: Daniel Torres, Jhojan Torres, Maximiliano Lovera, Alexis Zapata
- FW: Hugo Rodallega, Nahuel Bustos
Repetto has consistently deployed a 4-2-3-1 shape, and this lineup reflects the players with the most appearances across the last five matches. Weibmar Asprilla has made 14 saves in five games, making him the busiest goalkeeper in this dataset. Emanuel Olivera is the most experienced outfield presence with 385 minutes played. Nahuel Bustos leads the forward line alongside Rodallega, though he has picked up two yellow cards and carries suspension risk. Lovera’s creativity from the left side of midfield will be important for generating chances against a compact Millonarios block.
Millonarios Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Javier Burrai
- DF: Andrés Llinás, Danovis Banguero, Jaine Barreiro, Sergio Mosquera
- MF: Rodrigo Ureña, Mateo Garcia Rojas, Francisco Chaverra, Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera
- FW: Leonardo Castro, Andrey Estupinan
Bustos has also favoured a 4-2-3-1 system, and this eleven is built around the players with the highest minutes and contribution. Rodrigo Ureña anchors the midfield with 360 minutes played and 198 passes, though his three yellow cards in five matches make him a booking risk in a derby. Andrés Llinás provides an attacking threat from centre-back, having scored once in four appearances. Francisco Chaverra is the player to watch: 17 shots, 1 goal, 1 assist, and 332 minutes across four matches makes him Millonarios’ most dynamic attacking outlet. Leonardo Castro leads the line with 2 goals in four games.
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Millonarios. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
This derby has the hallmarks of a cagey, low-scoring affair. Both teams have been hard to beat recently, Santa Fe unbeaten in seven and Millonarios unbeaten in five, but neither side has been particularly free-scoring in the Clausura. The H2H record favours Millonarios heavily, and their current standings position, squad discipline in terms of defensive structure, and the presence of Chaverra and Castro up front give them the edge.
We predict a Millonarios win, 1-0, with a Millonarios clean sheet as the standout value bet. Santa Fe’s attack has managed just 4 goals in five matches and has historically struggled to score against this opponent. Millonarios’ back four has conceded only 2 goals in six Clausura games, and Burrai has been reliable between the posts. The double chance on Millonarios (draw or win) is the safer play, but the straight Millonarios win at 2.50 is genuinely attractive given the weight of evidence from both form and H2H data.
- Our prediction: Millonarios Win (1-0)
- Best value bet: Millonarios to keep a clean sheet
- Secondary pick: Under 2.5 goals
