Liam Duckstein
Stage 11 produced the sprint finish that had been widely expected, with Soren Waerenskjold taking the win after launching his effort early to catch the field by surprise. Jasper Philipsen produced a strong sprint of his own but had to settle for third, while Tim Merlier was unable to find or create the opening he needed. Away from the finish, Harper of Pinarello did not start the stage.
The general classification remained unchanged following stage 11. Mads Pedersen retained the green jersey, though Biniam Girmay closed the gap by nine points and Philipsen also moved up the points standings. The battle for the polka dot jersey saw no changes. That sets the scene for stage 12, another stage expected to end in a bunch sprint.
Stage 12: The Route and Its Challenges
Stage 12 covers 179.1 kilometres from Circuit Nevers Magny-Cours to Chalon-sur-Saône, with a start time of 13:40. The parcours carries 1412 vertical metres of climbing across the day, a profile score of 37 and a final-kilometre gradient of just 0.6 percent, figures that point to a stage with limited terrain-based obstacles for the sprint teams to manage.
According to the route description, the run-in to the finish does not present much of a challenge for the sprinters. The main technical feature comes in the final approach, where two sharp corners are located in the zone between three and two and a half kilometres to go. From that point, the road is described as fairly straightforward through to the line, meaning positioning through those corners is likely to matter more than raw power in determining who arrives at the front with the cleanest run.
With no significant climbs to thin out the peloton, the stage sets up as another opportunity for the fast finishers, and the outcome should again come down to leadout execution and finding the right wheel in the closing kilometres rather than any selection made on the road earlier in the stage.
Source: procyclingstats.com
Favourites for the Stage
Tim Merlier is named as the main favourite for stage 12, with the odds available at the time of the preview reflecting his position at the head of the market. A wide group of sprinters and fast finishers are expected to be involved in the finale.
- Merlier – Soudal Quick-Step
- Groenewegen – Ineos
- Ackermann – UAE Team Emirates
- Pedersen – Lidl-Trek
- Bauhaus – Bahrain Victorious
- Kanter – Astana
- Arndt – Lotto-Dstny
- Enfratin – Cofidis
- Russo – Groupama-FDJ
- Philipsen – Alpecin-Deceuninck
- Bennett – Jumbo-Visma
- Kooij – Team dsm-firmenich
- Girmay – Intermarché–Circus–Wanty
- Waerenskjold – Uno-X Mobility
- Gaviria – Movistar Team
Looking at how these riders have performed across the sprint stages so far this Tour, Merlier, Kooij, Girmay and Philipsen have been the most consistent performers, and that consistency is reflected in the star ratings for the stage. Merlier and Philipsen are rated as four-star favourites, with Kooij and Girmay handed three stars. Kanter and Waerenskjold sit on two stars, while Enfratin, Arndt, Russo and Ackermann round out the field with one star each.
Betting Odds for Stage 12
The betting market for the stage 12 winner is headed by Tim Merlier as clear favourite, with Olav Kooij and Jasper Philipsen the next best-fancied sprinters across both bookmakers. The full set of odds is reproduced below.
| Selection | Stake | BC.Game | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Merlier | 1.95 | 2.25 | 2.20 |
| Olav Kooij | 5.00 | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| Jasper Philipsen | 6.00 | 6.50 | 5.50 |
| Biniam Girmay | 13.00 | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| Soren Waerenskjold | 15.00 | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| Max Kanter | 19.00 | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| Mathieu van der Poel | 29.00 | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| Mads Pedersen | 26.00 | 41.00 | 41.00 |
| Filippo Ganna | 67.00 | 34.00 | 67.00 |
| Jonas Abrahamsen | 51.00 | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| Kasper Asgreen | 51.00 | 51.00 | 67.00 |
| Huub Artz | 81.00 | 67.00 | 81.00 |
| Fernando Gaviria | 100.00 | 100.00 | 41.00 |
| Milan Fretin | 81.00 | 67.00 | 29.00 |
| Pavel Bittner | 100.00 | 67.00 | 100.00 |
Prediction
The pick for the stage is Jasper Philipsen for the win, ahead of Tim Merlier in second and Olav Kooij in third. The reasoning centres on Philipsen appearing to be finding his sprint legs again after his third-place finish in stage 11, having been beaten narrowly by Waerenskjold’s early move. Merlier, despite topping the betting market, was unable to find an opening in the previous sprint stage, and with the finish again coming down to positioning through the two sharp corners inside the final three kilometres, the sprinter with the sharpest form through the last movements of the leadout is likely to have the edge. Kooij’s consistency across the sprint stages so far keeps him in podium contention alongside the two Belgians.
With the green jersey race tightening between Pedersen and Girmay, and the sprinters’ teams still searching for their moment, stage 12 offers another chance for the fast men to make their mark before the race moves into terrain more suited to the general classification contenders.
Summary
- Distance: 179.1 km
- Terrain type: Flat, sprint stage
- Elevation gain: 1412 vertical metres
- Key feature: Two sharp corners located 3 to 2.5 km from the finish
- Conditions: Final-kilometre gradient of 0.6%, straightforward run to the line
- Favourite for the win: Tim Merlier (betting market favourite); Jasper Philipsen (preview pick)
- Predicted podium: 1. Jasper Philipsen, 2. Tim Merlier, 3. Olav Kooij