Stage 5 of the 2025 Tour de France is set to deliver the first real blow in the general classification battle—a 33-kilometer flat individual time trial in Caen. As the only flat ITT of this year’s race, it’s a rare opportunity for time trial specialists and GC hopefuls alike to assert dominance. The stage could decisively alter the yellow jersey race, especially with Remco Evenepoel, Tadej Pogacar, and Jonas Vingegaard sharpening their blades for a solo duel against the clock. And what about Mathieu van der Poel? Can he defy expectations and cling onto the maillot jaune?
A Crucial Early GC Test
This straightforward out-and-back route through the streets of Caen won’t offer technical puzzles, but the sheer duration—over 30 minutes at full gas—will expose any weakness. It’s the first time trial of the race, and it’s bound to create meaningful gaps. With calm winds and sunshine forecasted, the weather will be a non-factor, giving the pure power riders a clear runway to perform.
Stage 5 Odds
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| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Evenepoel, Remco | 1.29 |
| Vingegaard, Jonas | 7.60 |
| Pogacar, Tadej | 12.00 |
| Affini, Edoardo | 40.00 |
| Van Aert, Wout | 60.00 |
| Jorgenson, Matteo | 60.00 |
| Roglic, Primoz | 60.00 |
| Vauquelin, Kevin | 120.00 |
| Foss, Tobias | 120.00 |
| Cattaneo, Mattia | 160.00 |
| van der Poel, Mathieu | 160.00 |
| Campenaerts, Victor | 170.00 |
| Plapp, Lucas | 210.00 |
| Almeida, Joao | 210.00 |
Favourites for Stage 5
Remco Evenepoel enters as the undisputed favorite. The reigning Olympic and World Champion has no Filippo Ganna to contend with, and his raw power over a flat course is unmatched among the GC men. Despite ceding time earlier, he showed promising form—expect him to aim for nothing less than victory.
Tadej Pogacar may have raised eyebrows with a slightly underwhelming performance in the Dauphiné time trial, but his pedigree is never in question. While on paper he and Vingegaard are equals in this discipline, UAE Team Emirates will be aiming to keep him close to the top—and possibly take yellow depending on how the time gaps fall.
Jonas Vingegaard looked razor-sharp in the Dauphiné and is rumored to be slightly heavier this season, potentially improving his flat TT efficiency. With form peaking and confidence high, the Danish star might just pull off a move to reclaim yellow.
Van der Poel’s Yellow Challenge
Mathieu van der Poel is no stranger to confounding expectations in time trials. Fifth in the 2021 and 2022 Tour TTs while wearing yellow, and recently sixth at the Dauphiné, he’s proven he can hold his own against the clock. While he’s not a TT specialist, his raw wattage could keep him closer than expected—enough, perhaps, to remain in yellow or at least within striking distance.
GC Shake-Up Incoming
The depth of talent is staggering. Matteo Jorgenson sits fourth and has the TT credentials to defend or improve his position. Kévin Vauquelin, João Almeida, and Mattias Skjelmose round out a Top 10 filled with riders capable of major performances.
Primoz Roglic (13th) has been flying under the radar, but don’t be surprised if he catapults into the Top 10. Florian Lipowitz, despite losing time today, remains one to watch given his profile and TT skillset.
Dark Horses & Specialists
Outside the GC narrative, there’s a compelling second tier of riders vying for top placings. Names like Ben O’Connor, Wout van Aert, Tobias Foss, Nelson Oliveira, Kasper Asgreen, and Luke Plapp bring depth and unpredictability to the fight for the Top 10. Sprinter Jonathan Milan might even grab a few green jersey points if things fall his way.
Expect fireworks—this is more than just a stage win; it’s a day that will shape the race’s narrative moving forward. With the peloton’s elite lined up for battle and clear skies above, Caen becomes the crucible for the Tour’s first defining moment.