As the Tour de France 2025 roars to life, all eyes are on Stage 1—a flat sprinter’s paradise that promises a high-speed showdown among some of the fastest legs in professional cycling. Betting markets have already begun to shape the narrative, giving fans and analysts a fresh lens through which to interpret team strategies and rider form. From seasoned sprinters to new-generation speedsters, the opening stage is set to be explosive.
Stage 1 Winner Odds
🏆Best odds for betting on 2025 Tour available at Campeon Bet!🏆
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Merlier, Tim | 2.49 |
| Milan, Jonathan | 3.30 |
| Philipsen, Jasper | 5.40 |
| Meeus, Jordi | 14.00 |
| Van Aert, Wout | 21.00 |
| Girmay, Biniam | 21.00 |
| Groenewegen, Dylan | 28.00 |
| Waerenskjold, Soeren | 35.00 |
| van der Poel, Mathieu | 40.00 |
| van Poppel, Danny | 40.00 |
| de Lie, Arnaud | 60.00 |
| Groves, Kaden | 70.00 |
| Bauhaus, Phil | 80.00 |
| Pogacar, Tadej | 80.00 |
Merlier Leads the Pack, But…
At 2.49, Tim Merlier enters Stage 1 as the bookmakers’ clear favorite. His raw power in the closing meters and consistency in one-day races have earned him this prime spot. Alpecin–Deceuninck’s lead-out squad is sharp and experienced, giving Merlier a real shot to stamp authority on the Yellow Jersey early.
However, there are questions about how he’ll handle the increasing tension of opening-day nerves—where positioning, not just legs, decides the winner.
Editorial Pick: Jonathan Milan
Our editorial lens is focused squarely on Jonathan Milan, tipped at 3.30. While not the outright favorite, Milan has been lighting up the WorldTour this season with ruthless sprint finishes and a tactical edge that’s fast becoming his signature.
The real weapon in Milan’s arsenal? Lidl-Trek’s revamped lead-out train. Anchored by riders like Edward Theuns and Jasper Stuyven, the American-registered squad has fine-tuned its high-speed execution over the past few months. We’ve seen them dominate intermediate sprints and smaller tours alike, making Milan more than just a podium threat—he’s our pick to win.
As Milan himself noted after his recent stage win at the Giro del Piemonte, “When the team believes in the plan, it feels like flying. You just have to deliver.” Stage 1 could be another such flight.
Philipsen’s Shadow Looms
Jasper Philipsen, the king of last year’s flat finishes, hovers at 5.40. That’s generous value for a rider who won four stages in the 2024 Tour and outpaced every marquee sprinter across Europe. He remains the most tactically complete sprinter in the peloton—capable of finding daylight where others see a wall of wheels.
But with Merlier now arguably the preferred sprinter at Alpecin–Deceuninck, questions around team dynamics could cost Philipsen valuable positioning in the final 500 meters.
High-Value Outsiders
Several riders further down the odds board deserve a closer look. Jordi Meeus (14.00) is quietly building a reputation for being unshakably cool in chaotic bunch sprints. If the top teams misfire, Meeus can absolutely surprise.
Wout van Aert (21.00) and Mathieu van der Poel (40.00) bring wild-card energy. While Stage 1 is likely too flat for them to go solo, their ability to disrupt the rhythm of a pure sprint should never be discounted—especially if weather or crashes enter the narrative.
Likewise, Biniam Girmay (21.00) brings a different kind of unpredictability. If he can latch onto the right wheel, he may capitalize on a disorganized sprint finale.
Betting Perspective
Looking through the lens of value, Jonathan Milan offers the best combination of odds, team support, and current form. While Merlier may boast the shortest number, Milan stands out for his upward trajectory and Lidl-Trek’s collective intent to take control of early stages.
Pogacar and Bauhaus, listed at 80.00, are more symbolic than strategic picks for this stage. Pogacar will bide his time until the GC battle begins in earnest, while Bauhaus may find himself boxed out against faster, more coordinated sprint trains.
Final Thoughts
Stage 1 is more than just a flat-out drag race—it’s a statement. The team that wins here sets a tone for the entire three-week saga. And while Merlier may have the shortest odds, our call goes to Jonathan Milan. Backed by a dominant Lidl-Trek squad and boasting sizzling form, he’s poised to turn this opening stage into a showcase of precision and power.
Stay tuned to TipsGG for more expert cycling coverage, insights, and odds analysis throughout the Tour de France 2025. The roads of France await—and the battle for yellow has just begun.