Puebla vs Necaxa Prediction: 19.04.2025 Liga MX 2025 Clausura Preview

As the Liga MX 2025 Clausura Regular Season nears its conclusion, Estadio Cuauhtémoc sets the stage for a contest rich in implications. Puebla, mired at the bottom of the standings, hosts a surging Necaxa side that still harbors ambitions of advancing further up the playoff positions. For Pablo Guede’s Puebla, this fixture is as much a matter of pride as survival, while Nicolás Larcamón’s Necaxa can consolidate their strong campaign with a crucial away victory. The chasm in recent form and tactical stability suggests a dynamic match, yet Liga MX’s history reminds us that underdogs can thrive under pressure. Will Puebla restore lost pride, or will Necaxa further their resurgence?

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Puebla vs Necaxa prediction

The best value proposition for this fixture strongly favors Necaxa, given their commendable recent form and attacking production. With Puebla’s struggles in both defensive organization and goal conversion, Necaxa’s dynamic transitions and efficient use of set-pieces give them a tangible edge. A wager on Necaxa “Draw No Bet” offers insurance against the unpredictable late-season twists endemic to Liga MX, while also reflecting the visitors’ superior momentum and tactical discipline.

Disciplinary factors may weigh significantly: Puebla have tallied 13 yellow cards in their last five appearances, indicative of their tendency to break up play and struggle with defensive timing. Necaxa, though adept at drawing fouls, tread the disciplinary line with 12 yellows of their own in the same stretch. Both squads favor patient build-up, but Necaxa outperform in ball progression (1434 passes over five matches vs Puebla’s 1265), and their pass completion (1161) signals less wastefulness under pressure. Set-pieces may prove decisive—Necaxa’s 22 corners in five games reflect their attacking intent, while Puebla have struggled to capitalize on their limited 19 corner opportunities.

Team Analysis

Puebla Recent Games Analysis

Puebla’s last outing resulted in a narrow 0-1 defeat by Chivas Guadalajara—a match reflective of their season: persistent, workmanlike, yet ultimately lacking the incisiveness required in the final third. This game marked their third consecutive scoreless performance, underlining a broader malaise in their attacking structure. Four games without a win, including losses to Club Leon (0-1) and Juarez (0-2), paint the portrait of a side lacking both confidence and solutions amid adversity. Coach Guede has opted for the 4-2-3-1, emphasizing compactness, but a dearth of creative spark and fluidity blunts their efforts. Defensive lapses and a penchant for forced tactical fouls further entrench their woes.

Necaxa Recent Games Analysis

Necaxa’s recent 2-2 home draw against Juarez demonstrated both their attacking prowess and defensive volatility. Prior to that, encounters such as the 3-5 loss to Pachuca exposed vulnerabilities in transition, yet victories over Queretaro (2-0) and Club Tijuana (2-1) attested to their attacking depth. A 59% win rate in 2025 and 10 victories from 17 fixtures reveal a team well-equipped to absorb pressure and strike with pace, particularly when leveraging the industrious midfield work of Agustin Palavecino and the clinical finishing of José Paradela. The preferred 3-4-2-1 formation gives them width and numerical superiority in midfield, a clear advantage against Puebla’s narrower structure.

Most recent H2Hs: Necaxa dominates

🚨Read our full Puebla vs Necaxa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Necaxa the favourite

Necaxa’s status as favorites is well-justified given their superior league standing, recent form, and tactical cohesion. The under 2.5 goals market aligns with both teams’ recent scoring patterns: Puebla’s lack of firepower versus Necaxa’s tendency to manage games through midfield control. Bettors should note that while Necaxa hold the most value on the moneyline, a slight hedge on “Draw No Bet” minimizes risk amid potential late-season surprises.

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Key Players to Watch

Puebla: Ricardo Marín (Forward)
Despite Puebla’s offensive drought, Marín stands out for his tireless movement and ability to draw defenders—his four appearances in the last five games yielded 333 minutes, seven fouls won, and a persistent threat in the box. While goals have eluded him, his off-ball intelligence and capacity to win set-pieces could offer Puebla a lifeline.

Necaxa: José Paradela (Midfielder)
Paradela epitomizes Necaxa’s creative thrust. In four most recent appearances, he boasts two goals, two assists, and commendable pass statistics (136 attempts, 68% success), regularly linking play between defense and attack. His ability to unlock tight defenses and generate high-quality opportunities will be critical as Necaxa seek to dictate tempo away from home.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Guede’s selection reflects a side in search of balance and resilience, likely sticking with a 4-2-3-1 aimed at managing Necaxa’s midfield overload while seeking moments of transition. Gularte and Angulo anchor a defense often tested under pressure, while Marín—though goalless—remains pivotal for his pressing and hold-up play. Facundo Waller is the creative conduit in midfield, but Puebla’s success hinges on defensive discipline and opportunistic set-piece execution.

Larcamón will likely deploy his favored 3-4-2-1, providing width and robust midfield presence. Paradela and Palavecino form the creative hub, while Rosero and Hernández exploit channels and spaces behind Puebla’s back four. Defensive discipline from Lara and Peña enables wing-backs to surge forward, stretching Puebla’s shape and creating overloads that will define Necaxa’s attacking opportunities.

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The Verdict

Necaxa enters Estadio Cuauhtémoc as clear favorites, with both tactical flexibility and player form tilting the balance their way. We anticipate a disciplined display from the away side, exploiting Puebla’s lack of attacking presence and capitalizing on moments in transition. Our key prediction: a Necaxa victory, kept in check by the prudent “Draw No Bet” market, but with under 2.5 goals reflecting Puebla’s defensive focus. As the Liga MX Regular Season draws to a close, this match underscores not only the fierce competitiveness of Mexican football but also the enduring hope that every underdog can script their own redemption.

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