Alex MacQuoid
The Scottish Premiership 2026/27 season gets underway at Easter Road, where Hibernian welcome Motherwell in what is already a match carrying real weight. These two sides know each other well, and the recent head-to-head record tells a story that Hibs fans won’t be entirely comfortable with — Motherwell have taken four points from the last three league meetings, including a 1-0 win earlier this year. David Gray’s side will be eager to set a different tone on home soil.
Martin Boyle is the man to watch for Hibernian. He picked up a goal and an assist across the last two matches and brings the kind of directness that can unsettle any backline. For Motherwell, Lukas Fadinger has been quietly excellent — two goals in two games during the recent Europa qualifying run, and Alfred Johansson clearly trusts him to carry attacking responsibility.
Hot stat: Hibernian registered 32 total shots across their last five matches compared to Motherwell’s 27, but Motherwell scored five goals to Hibs’ four — a sign that the visitors have been more clinical when chances arrive.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Scottish Premiership 2026/2027 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Easter Road, Edinburgh |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:30 CEST |
Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction
Bookmakers have Hibernian as marginal favourites at around 42% win probability, which feels about right given home advantage, but the recent head-to-head form complicates things. Motherwell have lost just once in their last four matches and arrive with momentum from back-to-back 3-0 and 2-0 wins over Torshavn in European qualifying. Hibs, by contrast, went out of Europe on a 4-1 aggregate win over Malisheva but also dropped a home game to Shamrock Rovers not long before that.
Hibernian’s last 30 days show two wins, one draw, one loss — reasonable, not convincing. Motherwell’s last 30 days show two wins and two losses, a more volatile picture. Both teams have the same 50% winrate over that period, so this is genuinely close. We think the value sits with a draw or a narrow Motherwell win, given the visitors’ recent ability to grind out results against Hibs specifically.
Style-wise, Hibernian have collected six yellow cards across their last five matches while Motherwell have picked up none — which says something about how each side approaches pressure situations. Hibs can get scrappy when things aren’t going their way. Motherwell’s discipline gives them an edge in tight games where set-pieces and free kicks matter. With Hibernian generating more corners (13 vs 6), expect them to push for territory, but Motherwell’s organisation may frustrate them.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Motherwell to score first |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Hibernian’s recent run has been a mixed bag. They beat Malisheva 4-1 at home in their most recent outing, which looks good on paper, but that followed a 0-2 reverse in the away leg — a result that showed real defensive vulnerability on the road. Before the European qualifying campaign, they drew 0-0 with Cliftonville and lost 0-1 to Shamrock Rovers, both matches against sides ranked well below them. That’s the kind of form that raises questions. The 4-1 win will have boosted confidence, but Motherwell are a different calibre of opponent to Malisheva.
Motherwell come into this on the back of consecutive clean sheet wins — 3-0 and 2-0 against Torshavn. Before that, they were beaten 3-4 by Genk in a high-scoring European tie and were thrashed 0-4 by AGF Aarhus, so the form before the Torshavn games was rough. The back-to-back clean sheets have clearly steadied things, and Johansson will be hoping that defensive solidity carries into the league opener. Motherwell also beat Hibernian 1-0 earlier this year in the Scottish Premiership Championship phase, which is the most recent competitive meeting between these two.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hibernian vs Motherwell stats page for more info.
Across the last seven head-to-head meetings, Hibernian have scored eight goals to Motherwell’s seven — an almost perfectly balanced record. The most recent four meetings have produced just four Hibernian goals versus five for Motherwell, and Hibs have failed to score in three of those four games. That’s a telling trend heading into Sunday’s match at Easter Road.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hibernian the Favourite
- Moneyline Hibernian 2.27 | Motherwell 3.02
- Draw 3.38
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The 2.27 on Hibernian reflects their home advantage and slightly higher bookmaker win probability, but honestly it doesn’t represent great value given how Motherwell have performed in this fixture lately. The draw at 3.38 is interesting — four of the last seven head-to-head meetings have ended level or with a one-goal margin, and both teams are evenly matched in recent form. Motherwell at 3.02 is arguably the most intriguing line on the board given their head-to-head record and current defensive shape.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hibernian Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Raphael Sallinger
- DF: Warren O’Hora, Grant Hanley, Jason Kerr, A. Major
- MF: Felix Passlack, Jordan Obita, Miguel Changa Chaiwa, Martin Boyle
- FW: Owen Elding, Nathan Lowe
Raphael Sallinger has featured consistently across the last two matches and looks set to start between the posts. The back four picks itself based on playing time — Warren O’Hora and Grant Hanley have both logged 180 and 90 minutes respectively in recent weeks, and Jason Kerr adds experience. In midfield, Felix Passlack has contributed a goal and clocked a full 180 minutes, while Martin Boyle’s goal and assist make him the standout creative force. Owen Elding and Nathan Lowe both scored in the last two games and form a direct attacking partnership in a 4-3-3 shape. Boyle is the player to watch — if he gets on the ball in wide areas early, Motherwell will have to make a decision about how to contain him.
Motherwell Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Alex Paulsen
- DF: Martin Moormann, Ewan Wilson, Emmanuel Longelo
- MF: Oscar Priestman, Tom Sparrow, Jake Max Girdwood-Reich, Lukas Fadinger
- FW: Ibrahim Said, Regan Charles-Cook, Willy Gabriel Vogt
Alex Paulsen has played the full 180 minutes across the last two matches and is the clear number one. Martin Moormann scored a goal from defence recently and brings a threat from set-pieces — worth noting given Hibernian’s tendency to give away free kicks. Lukas Fadinger is the name to circle for Motherwell, two goals in two games and 163 minutes played tells you Johansson rates him highly. Ibrahim Said has been involved in build-up play consistently, logging 179 minutes and picking up an assist. A 4-3-3 mirrors what Hibernian will set up, which makes the midfield battle in the centre of the park potentially the deciding factor in this one.
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Motherwell. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a match where the narrative around Hibernian being comfortable home favourites doesn’t quite hold up under scrutiny. Motherwell have beaten or drawn with Hibs in five of the last seven meetings. Their recent defensive discipline — zero yellow cards across five matches, back-to-back clean sheets — suggests a team that has found some shape. Hibs, for all their corner and shot volume, have been inconsistent in front of goal and leaky at the back when tested by organised sides.
We think this ends as a low-scoring, tight affair. Both teams have enough quality to score — Boyle and Elding for Hibs, Fadinger and Charles-Cook for Motherwell — but neither defence is bad enough to concede freely. The head-to-head data points firmly toward goals being scarce. Under 2.5 goals and both teams to score feels like the most honest read of the available stats. Motherwell to score first is also worth considering at the available prices, given their clinical edge in recent weeks and Hibs’ habit of starting slowly in competitive fixtures.
