Rafael Nogueira
Mirassol host Gremio at the José Maria de Campos Maia in the Copa do Brasil 2026 Round of 16, and the home side carries real momentum into this tie. Rafael Guanaes’s team has already beaten Gremio once this season in the Brasileirão, winning 2-1 back in late June, and Luís Castro’s side arrives having lost four of their last six matches across all competitions.
Defender Igor Formiga stands out for Mirassol, contributing a goal and two assists across the last five games while putting in consistent defensive work. For Gremio, forward Tetê is the one to watch, leading the team with 13 shots and a goal in five appearances, but he needs more support from a misfiring attack.
Hot stat: Gremio generated 74 total shots across their last five matches yet scored only five goals, a conversion rate that highlights a serious finishing problem ahead of a knockout tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa do Brasil 2026, Round of 16 |
| 🏟 Venue: | José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:00 CEST |
Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction
Mirassol are the clear value pick here. They are unbeaten in their last three matches, won two of those, and have beaten Gremio twice in three head-to-head meetings in 2025 and 2026. Gremio, by contrast, has won just once in six games over the past 30 days and is dealing with a squad that commits errors under pressure. The home setting amplifies Mirassol’s advantage, and the bookmakers’ 48% win probability for the hosts aligns with the underlying form data.
Mirassol operate in a compact 4-1-4-1 shape, averaging fewer fouls per game than Gremio despite playing similarly physical football. Their five yellow cards across five matches compares well to Gremio’s 13, which signals that Luís Castro’s side is more reactive and less disciplined. Gremio’s pass accuracy of 1,900 accurate passes from 2,249 attempts looks impressive on paper, but their inability to convert possession into goals undermines any positional advantage they might enjoy. Mirassol’s lower ball volume but higher efficiency in front of goal makes them the more dangerous team in a knockout format.
- We predict a Mirassol win at home odds of 2.00, representing the strongest value in this fixture.
- Given Gremio’s poor finishing and Mirassol’s defensive solidity (52 interceptions in five games), we lean toward an under outcome on goals.
- BTTS looks unlikely given how rarely Gremio have found the net consistently across recent fixtures.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Mirassol to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Mirassol come into this fixture in solid shape. Over the last 30 days they recorded two wins and one draw from three matches, with a 67% win rate. Their five most recent games show a squad capable of grinding out results: a 2-1 win over Remo, a 1-1 draw with Vasco, and a 2-1 victory against Gremio in the Brasileirão. The defeats to Athletico PR and Lanus came against higher-rated opposition, so those results carry less weight. Bruno Santos de Oliveira and Edson Carioca each scored twice in the last five games, giving the team two reliable attacking outlets. Mirassol’s 52 interceptions across those five matches show a defensive structure that works hard off the ball, and the zero red cards indicate discipline that serves them well in high-stakes matches.
Gremio’s recent form is a concern. In the past 30 days they won just one from six, losing four. Their last five matches include a 0-1 loss to Bolivar, a 1-1 draw with Fluminense, a 2-3 defeat to Bolivar, the 1-2 loss against Mirassol, and a 3-1 win over Cruzeiro being their only bright result. Carlos Vinícius is their top scorer with two goals in three appearances, and Tetê adds energy from wide positions, but the team’s 13 yellow cards and two red cards across five matches point to a side that struggles to maintain composure. Losing to Bolivar twice in the same period is particularly telling about the squad’s current defensive fragility.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Mirassol | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 2 |
| Total shots | 46 | 74 |
| Free kicks | 35 | 57 |
| Corner kicks | 21 | 34 |
| Total fouls | 50 | 51 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82% | 85% |
| Interceptions | 52 | 42 |
| Offsides | 3 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Mirassol vs Gremio stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Mirassol the Favourite
- Moneyline Mirassol 2.00 | Gremio 3.70
- Draw 3.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Mirassol at 2.00 is the standout value. The bookmakers’ average implied probability of 48% for a home win feels conservative given the head-to-head record and Gremio’s current form. Gremio at 3.70 reflects genuine risk for backers, and the draw at 3.20 is only worth considering if you believe Gremio can contain a Mirassol attack that has outscored them across all three recent meetings. We see little reason to back the draw or an away win in this context.
Possible Starting Lineups
Mirassol Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune
- DF: Igor Formiga, João Victor Carroll Santana, Gabriel Knesowitsch, Reinaldo
- MF: Denilson Alves Borges, Japa, José Aldo Soares de Oliveira Filho, Chico Kim
- MF: Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo
- FW: Bruno Santos de Oliveira
Mirassol’s 4-1-4-1 shape suits this fixture. Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune takes the gloves having featured in three of the last five matches. Igor Formiga is the key defensive contributor and also offers a goal threat from set pieces. Denilson Alves Borges anchors the midfield with 10 interceptions and two assists in five games, making him the engine of this team. Bruno Santos de Oliveira leads the line as the most productive forward with two goals across the period.
Gremio Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Weverton Pereira da Silva
- DF: Walter Kannemann, Gustavo Martins, Marcos Rocha, Luis Eduardo
- MF: Juan Nardoni, Mathias Villasanti, Dodi
- MF: Erick Noriega
- FW: Tetê, Carlos Vinícius
Luís Castro is likely to deploy a 4-3-3 with Weverton Pereira da Silva in goal after four appearances. Walter Kannemann and Gustavo Martins form the central defensive pairing, though Kannemann’s three yellow cards in five games are a booking risk in a tense cup tie. Juan Nardoni covers ground in midfield alongside the reliable Mathias Villasanti, who grabbed a goal in his last five outings. Tetê and Carlos Vinícius must improve their output significantly if Gremio are to cause an upset.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Gremio. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Mirassol are the pick here, and the data backs it up firmly. They have beaten Gremio in each of the last two meetings, including a 4-1 win in April 2025 and a 2-1 win just weeks ago. Their defensive structure, with 52 interceptions and only five yellow cards across five matches, gives them the composure to handle Gremio’s possession-heavy approach. Gremio’s 13 yellow cards and two red cards across the same period suggest a squad under pressure, and their conversion rate of five goals from 74 shots is not the profile of a team ready for a knockout comeback. We predict Mirassol to win this match, likely by a single goal, with the game staying under 2.5 goals and both teams not scoring.
