Liam Duckstein
The 2026 Dutch season kicks off with a showpiece fixture as PSV host AZ Alkmaar in the Johan Cruijff Schaal Final at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven. This is a single-match Super Cup, meaning there is no room for error, and PSV will carry home advantage as well as the bookmakers’ confidence heading into the contest. What makes this match particularly interesting is that PSV beat AZ in both Eredivisie meetings last season, but AZ arrive here in noticeably sharper form over the past month.
Two players stand out as the ones likely to shape the result. Joey Veerman has two assists across his last two appearances and brings consistent passing quality from midfield, making him central to how PSV build and progress the ball. On the other side, AZ’s recent run of form in preseason friendlies suggests collective organization rather than individual brilliance, but Mauro Júnior offers a creative threat from the right flank and has already scored once in this short run of games, combining attack and defensive work across 76 minutes of action.
Hot stat: PSV have scored six goals across their last five matches and registered 49 total shots, averaging nearly ten shots per game, which reflects a consistent attacking output even against varied opposition.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Netherlands Johan Cruijff Schaal 2026 – Final |
| 🏟 Venue: | Philips Stadion, Eindhoven |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
PSV vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
PSV are the clear favorites at home in a one-off final, and the head-to-head record backs that up. They have won three of the last four Eredivisie meetings against AZ, with only a 2-2 draw in January 2025 interrupting the pattern. Philips Stadion adds another layer of pressure on AZ, and Peter Bosz will set up his side to control possession and create volume from wide areas.
That said, AZ arrive with a 50% win rate over the last 30 days, beating Olympiacos 3-2 and Genk 4-0 in their most recent outings. Their form is sharper than PSV’s over the same window, where PSV managed only one win in five, drawing three. This gap in recent sharpness is worth factoring in, even if the overall quality difference favors PSV.
PSV’s style under Bosz is possession-heavy with a high press. In the last five matches, they completed 1,408 accurate passes out of 1,626 attempted, which reflects strong ball retention. Their 24 free kicks conceded and 11 corner kicks generated tell the story of a team that plays in the opposition half regularly. AZ, by contrast, tend to be more compact and transition-focused in a 4-4-1-1 shape. The clash of styles could produce a tight opening but a PSV-dominated second half once AZ’s defensive discipline is tested.
We predict a PSV win here, with both teams potentially getting on the scoresheet given AZ’s attacking quality in recent games and PSV’s tendency to allow a few attempts against them even in victories.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | PSV to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
PSV’s last 30 days have been uneven. They drew three and won just once in five matches, with losses bookending a run of draws. Their most recent result was a comfortable 3-0 win over Eindhoven, which will have provided some confidence going into this final. Before that, a 1-3 defeat to Villarreal showed some defensive vulnerability against quality opposition. The 3-3 draw with Royale Union SG and the 2-2 with Rakow suggest a team that can score freely but gives up chances at the back. Their overall 2026 record of 15 wins from 27 matches, a 56% win rate, is solid, and the squad depth Peter Bosz has at his disposal remains a key advantage.
AZ Alkmaar have been in better recent rhythm. Three wins from six in the last 30 days, with defeats only to Anderlecht (0-1), reflects a team that has been working well in preseason. The 4-0 win over Genk is the most impressive result, followed by a 3-2 victory over Olympiacos, both of which show AZ can score in bunches when the setup is right. The 1-1 draw with Zulte Waregem and the loss to Anderlecht are the only blemishes. Coach Lee-Roy Echteld has his side organized and motivated, and AZ’s 47% win rate across 34 matches in 2026 shows a competitive team, even if they sit below PSV in terms of raw quality.
Across the four most recent head-to-head meetings in the Eredivisie, PSV have scored 11 goals to AZ’s 5, winning three of those four clashes. The only time AZ avoided defeat was a 2-2 draw in January 2025. PSV’s dominance in this fixture is a meaningful factor for a single-game final.
🚨Check out our dedicated PSV vs AZ Alkmaar stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: PSV the Favourite
- Moneyline PSV 1.53 | AZ Alkmaar 5.09
- Draw 4.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds paint a clear picture. PSV at 1.53 reflects the bookmakers’ 61% win probability, and that seems reasonable given the home advantage, superior squad, and head-to-head record. AZ at 5.09 offers value only if you believe their recent form edge translates into an upset, which is possible but not the most likely outcome. The draw at 4.60 is long given this is a one-off final with no extra pressure to sit back. PSV are expected to push for the win from the start.
Possible Starting Lineups
PSV Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nick Olij
- DF: Kiliann Sildillia, Ryan Flamingo, Fabian Merien, Yarek Gasiorowski
- MF: Joey Veerman, Noah Fernandez, Joel van den Berg, Sven Mijnans
- FW: Couhaib Driouech, Alassane Pléa
Nick Olij has featured in three of the last five matches and is the most consistent goalkeeper option, with five saves logged. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Kiliann Sildillia providing an attacking outlet from right back, having scored once in his last two games. Joey Veerman is the creative engine in midfield, and his two assists make him the most dangerous player in build-up play. Couhaib Driouech leads the forward line after appearing in three of the five recent matches. PSV are expected to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape, with Veerman operating as the attacking midfielder behind the striker.
Based on their 4-4-1-1 formation preference, expect a compact and disciplined structure with a focus on defensive shape and quick transitions.
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PSV. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
PSV are the right side to back in this final. They own the head-to-head record, play at home, and despite a patchy last 30 days, carry more quality across the squad than AZ. Their shot volume, passing accuracy, and free-kick generation all point to a team that will dominate large portions of this match.
AZ’s sharpness in recent weeks means they will not simply roll over. Their 4-0 win over Genk and 3-2 over Olympiacos show they can create and convert, and PSV’s recent defensive lapses, conceding in draws against Royale Union SG and Rakow, suggest AZ will find at least one opening.
We predict a PSV win with both teams scoring. A scoreline of 2-1 to PSV fits the pattern of this fixture well, and over 2.5 goals looks like the most reasonable total given the attacking output both sides have shown in preseason. PSV to score in both halves is the hot tip we feel confident in, given their tendency to build pressure through possession and push hard in the second half at home.
