Rafael Nogueira
Cruzeiro travel to Arena Condá for a Copa do Brasil Round of 16 clash against Chapecoense on August 3. The visitors carry a clear ranking and quality advantage, sitting 1,040 places above Chapecoense in the world club rankings, yet Copa do Brasil knockout football has a history of leveling such gaps. Cruzeiro have already met Chapecoense once this year in the Campeonato Brasileiro, winning 2-1, so Artur Jorge’s squad knows exactly what to expect from Rafael Lacerda’s side at home.
Matheus Pereira is the man to watch for Cruzeiro, scoring twice in just two recent appearances and generating more shot volume than anyone in his squad. For Chapecoense, Yannick Bolasie is their most active attacking threat, logging six shots across three matches with consistent pressing work that can cause problems for even well-organized defenses.
Hot stat: Cruzeiro have registered 49 total shots across their last five matches compared to Chapecoense’s 28, nearly double the output, which reflects a major difference in attacking pressure and territorial dominance heading into this tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa do Brasil 2026, Round of 16 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Condá, Chapecó |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro Prediction
Cruzeiro are the clear pick here. They have won three of their last five matches, carry a 60% win rate over the past 30 days, and have outscored, outshot, and outpassed Chapecoense in every comparable metric from recent games. Chapecoense have managed just a 25% win rate in the same period, losing two of four, and their goal tally of two in five matches underlines how little they threaten going forward.
Cruzeiro’s style is possession-heavy and direct: 1,263 passes in five matches versus Chapecoense’s 987, with better accuracy. They generate more corners (18 vs 12) and commit more fouls (46 vs 39), which reflects an aggressive, high-press approach that tends to overwhelm lower-ranked sides. Chapecoense rely on a compact 4-4-2 and can be dangerous on transitions, as seen in their 2-1 win over Grêmio, but their defensive record of conceding six goals in the last three league matches is a concern. Cruzeiro’s 4-2-3-1 gives them the midfield control to suffocate Chapecoense’s transitions. With 11 yellow cards in five games, Cruzeiro play on the edge, and that physicality could rattle a home side that has already shown defensive vulnerability.
- We predict a Cruzeiro win as the primary selection, backed by the bookmakers’ 51% implied probability and the quality gap between the two squads.
- Both teams to score looks unlikely given Chapecoense’s low output; we lean toward BTTS No.
- Total goals Over 2.5 carries value given Cruzeiro’s attacking output and Chapecoense’s leaky defense.
- Corners Over 9.5 is worth considering given Cruzeiro’s 18 corners in five games alone.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Cruzeiro to win and Over 1.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Chapecoense have been inconsistent across their last five matches. They opened with a high-scoring 7-5 win over Avaí, but that result flatters them more than it reflects defensive solidity. A 2-1 win over Grêmio showed they can compete against decent opposition, but back-to-back losses to Bahia (0-2) and Flamengo RJ (0-4) exposed how badly they can be overrun by stronger sides. Their most recent outing, a 2-2 draw with Santos, at least showed some attacking spirit, with Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior on the scoresheet. Over the last five games they have scored just two goals in the four non-Avaí matches, and their 33% win rate for the year reflects a squad that struggles for consistency at this level.
Cruzeiro have been more reliable. A 2-0 win over Defensor Sporting and a 2-1 victory over Internacional showed their ability to grind out results, and their most recent match, a 1-0 win over Coritiba, demonstrated defensive discipline when needed. The only real blemish in recent form was a 1-3 loss to Grêmio and a 0-1 defeat to Botafogo RJ, both against high-quality opponents. Artur Jorge’s squad carries a 50% win rate for the year across 42 matches, which is a strong return at this stage of the Brazilian football calendar.
🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Cruzeiro the Favourite
- Moneyline Chapecoense 3.75 | Cruzeiro 1.83
- Draw 3.32
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Cruzeiro’s moneyline around 1.83 reflects their 51% bookmaker probability and is fair given the form and quality gap. Chapecoense at 3.75 carries some appeal for a home upset, but their recent performances against top-half opposition make that a low-confidence play. The draw at 3.32 is not particularly attractive given how one-sided the underlying stats look. Cruzeiro to win is the cleaner, more defensible option at these prices.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chapecoense Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Matheus Aurelio
- DF: Bruno Pacheco, Rafael Thyere, Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski, Everton Souza da Cruz
- MF: Camilo Reijers de Oliveira, Bruno Matias, Giovanni Augusto, Vinicius Balieiro
- FW: Yannick Bolasie, Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior
Rafael Lacerda is expected to set up in a 4-4-2, the formation Chapecoense have used consistently across their last five matches. Matheus Aurelio starts in goal with 12 saves across three appearances. The back four picks itself, with Bruno Pacheco and Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski as the most experienced options. Giovanni Augusto provides the creative link in midfield with one assist in recent games, while Yannick Bolasie is the most active attacker with six shots across three outings. Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior leads the line after scoring against Santos.
Cruzeiro Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Otávio Costa
- DF: Jonathan Jesus, Fabrício Bruno, Gabriel Rojas, Fagner
- MF: Matheus Henrique, Lucas Romer, Gerson, Matheus Pereira
- FW: Kaio Jorge, Keny Arroyo
Artur Jorge’s preferred 4-2-3-1 shapes around a strong defensive base, with Fabrício Bruno and Jonathan Jesus as the central pair. Jonathan Jesus has been a disciplined presence with eight interceptions in three matches. Gerson adds creativity and press resistance in midfield, and Fagner brings experience at right back with two assists in two appearances. The standout name is Matheus Pereira, who has two goals from two recent games and leads Cruzeiro’s attacking output, operating as the number ten. Kaio Jorge leads the line with one goal and eight shots across three matches, making him a constant threat in behind Chapecoense’s defensive line.
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Cruzeiro. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
The stats point clearly toward a Cruzeiro win. Their shot volume, pass accuracy, and corner output across five matches all sit well above Chapecoense’s numbers, and their head-to-head meeting earlier this year ended in a 2-1 Cruzeiro victory. Chapecoense have conceded freely against stronger sides, and Cruzeiro’s attack, led by Matheus Pereira and Kaio Jorge, has the quality to exploit that. We predict a Cruzeiro win, likely by a single goal margin given the cup knockout context, with the visitors controlling possession and limiting Chapecoense to few clear chances. The best value play is Cruzeiro to win and Over 1.5 goals, combining the most probable outcome with the attacking output Cruzeiro have shown consistently in recent weeks.
