Alex MacQuoid
On August 16, 2025, at the United Center in Chicago, winner Dricus du Plessis will fight Khamzat Chimaev for the UFC middleweight title. Chimaev has never lost a fight before. Du Plessis wants to make his legacy even stronger by defending his title a third time. He has a perfect 9-0 record in the UFC. At the same time, Chimaev, a great wrestler with a 14-0 record, is trying to win his first UFC title. With odds that heavily favor Chimaev (W2: 1.34) over Du Plessis (W1: 3.365), this matchup is sure to be exciting. Read on for a full look at the UFC 319 betting odds, fighter profiles, and predictions for this exciting middleweight fight.
Betting Odds Breakdown
The latest betting odds paint a clear picture: according to FairPari, Khamzat Chimaev is the favorite to dethrone Du Plessis. According to 1X2 markets, Chimaev’s odds sit at 1.34, while Du Plessis stands at 3.365, with a draw at a distant 50. In the 2Way win market, Chimaev is slightly tighter at 1.33, with Du Plessis at 3.3. Double Chance betting offers 1X (Du Plessis or draw) at 3.1 and 2X (Chimaev or draw) at 1.285, reflecting Chimaev’s perceived edge.
Round totals provide further insight. The Over 2.5 rounds bet is priced at 2.03, while Under 2.5 sits at 1.73, suggesting a slight lean toward a quicker finish. Over 1.5 rounds is 1.5, and Under 1.5 is 2.48, indicating bookmakers expect the fight to at least reach the second round. For those betting on a longer fight, Over 4.5 rounds is 3.71, while Under 4.5 is 1.25, hinting at Chimaev’s history of early finishes.
Why is Chimaev favored? His relentless grappling and 10 finishes in 14 fights make him a nightmare for opponents. However, Du Plessis, a proven underdog, has knockout power and championship experience, making him a dangerous bet at 3.3. For UFC 319 betting fans, this fight offers value on both sides.
| Betting Market | Option | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dricus du Plessis (W1) | 3.365 |
| 1X2 | Khamzat Chimaev (W2) | 1.34 |
| 1X2 | Draw (X) | 50 |
| Win (2Way) | Dricus du Plessis | 3.3 |
| Win (2Way) | Khamzat Chimaev | 1.33 |
| Double Chance | Du Plessis or Draw (1X) | 3.1 |
| Double Chance | Chimaev or Draw (2X) | 1.285 |
| Total Rounds | Over 2.5 | 2.03 |
| Total Rounds | Under 2.5 | 1.73 |
| Total Rounds | Over 4.5 | 3.71 |
| Total Rounds | Under 4.5 | 1.25 |
Dricus du Plessis’ Road to UFC 319
Dricus du Plessis (23-2) stormed into the UFC in October 2020 with a 14-2 record, having claimed titles in KSW and EFC. His debut saw him knock out Markus Perez in the first round, followed by a “Performance of the Night” KO over Trevin Giles in 2021. A decision win over Brad Tavares earned him a top-15 spot, and a submission of Darren Till in 2022 pushed him to No. 10. Du Plessis then stopped Derek Brunson via TKO, setting up a title eliminator against Robert Whittaker at UFC 290.
Against Whittaker, Du Plessis delivered a stunning second-round knockout, earning a title shot and another “Performance of the Night” bonus. In January 2024, he outlasted Sean Strickland in a “Fight of the Night” war to claim the middleweight crown. Du Plessis defended his title with an August 2024 submission over Israel Adesanya and followed it with a unanimous decision over Strickland in a UFC 312 rematch in February 2025.
At UFC 312, Du Plessis showcased growth, landing 147 of 314 strikes (46% accuracy) compared to 137 of 354 (38%) in their first fight. He also limited Strickland to 128 significant strikes, down from 173. His unorthodox style—mixing wild striking with sneaky grappling—defies logic but works. With two title defenses and a knack for upsetting favorites, Du Plessis is a live underdog at UFC 319.
Khamzat Chimaev’s Path to the Title Shot
Khamzat Chimaev (14-0) burst onto the UFC scene in July 2020, submitting John Phillips in Round 2. Just 10 days later, he TKO’d Rhys McKee, setting a modern UFC record for the quickest turnaround between wins. A 17-second KO of Gerald Meerschaert followed, cementing his hype. After a year-long hiatus due to COVID-19 setbacks, Chimaev returned in October 2021, submitting Li Jingliang in under four minutes.
In 2022, Chimaev went the distance for the first time, outpointing Gilbert Burns in a thrilling decision. He followed with a quick submission of Kevin Holland. After another year-long break, Chimaev defeated Kamaru Usman via decision in October 2023. His most recent outing was a statement: a first-round submission (face crank) over Robert Whittaker at UFC 308 in 2024.
Chimaev’s style is defined by suffocating wrestling, explosive athleticism, and a 71% finish rate. At 30, the No. 3-ranked middleweight has never been pushed to five rounds, raising questions about his stamina. Still, his ability to dominate early makes him a formidable challenger for Du Plessis’ title.
Fight Analysis and Prediction
This UFC 319 main event pits Du Plessis’ chaotic versatility against Chimaev’s relentless pressure. Du Plessis thrives in scrappy exchanges, using awkward angles and raw power to land heavy strikes. His 46% striking accuracy and defensive improvements at UFC 312 show he can handle high-volume strikers. However, Chimaev’s elite grappling—evident in his Whittaker submission—could neutralize Du Plessis’ offense if he secures early takedowns.
The key question is whether Du Plessis can survive Chimaev’s early onslaught. Chimaev has finished 10 of 14 fights, with eight in Round 1. If he drags Du Plessis to the mat, a submission is likely. But Du Plessis’ durability, seen in five-round wars with Strickland and Adesanya, gives him an edge in later rounds. If he weathers Chimaev’s storm and keeps the fight standing, his striking could turn the tide.
The Chicago crowd at the United Center may boost Du Plessis, who feeds off energy. Still, Chimaev’s physicality and 1.33 odds make him the favorite. Prediction: Chimaev’s grappling secures a Round 2 submission, but don’t count out Du Plessis stealing a decision if he extends the fight past Round 3.
UFC 319’s main event is a clash of styles and wills. Dricus du Plessis, the resilient champion, faces his toughest test in Khamzat Chimaev, an unbeaten force. With odds favoring Chimaev (1.34) over Du Plessis (3.365), bettors and fans alike are buzzing. Will Du Plessis defy the odds again, or will Chimaev claim UFC gold? Tune in to UFC 319 live on pay-per-view to find out.