Liam Duckstein
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David Moyes returns to the Hill Dickinson Stadium against Manchester United, the club he managed for over a decade. That subplot alone makes this Premier League clash worth watching. Everton sit seventh after two matches, picking up four points, while Michael Carrick’s United side sit tenth with three points after a mixed start that included a heavy 5-2 win over Ipswich and a 0-2 loss to Hull.
Two players stand out heading into this fixture. Bruno Fernandes has been exceptional for United across his last five matches, scoring three goals and adding two assists, and he leads their attack with real authority from midfield. For Everton, Thierno Barry has been sharp in front of goal with four strikes in his last three appearances, and he will be the main threat David Moyes looks to exploit against a United backline that has already conceded four goals this season.
The hot stat from recent matches: Manchester United have attempted 93 shots across their last five games, averaging nearly 19 per match. That volume of attacking intent makes them one of the more active sides going forward in this early stretch of the season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | English Premier League 2026/27 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Everton vs Manchester United Prediction
The bookmakers lean toward a Manchester United win at odds around 2.10-2.17, and the 44% win probability they carry reflects their stronger overall season record. United have won 54% of their matches this calendar year across 28 games, compared to Everton’s 33% from 30. That gap in quality is real, and it shows across multiple metrics.
We predict a Manchester United win here. The away side carries more attacking firepower, more passing volume, and better discipline in the last five matches. Everton are competitive at home, and the Moyes factor adds an emotional element, but United’s squad depth and Carrick’s setup give them the edge.
Looking at style, Everton average fewer fouls (25 across five matches) compared to United’s 54, which is a significant difference. United’s aggression in midfield could disrupt Everton’s rhythm but also risks giving away set pieces in dangerous areas. Everton have generated 27 free kicks in their last five matches, and with a team that keeps things tidy in possession at 86% pass accuracy, they are capable of building pressure from dead balls. United’s 88% pass accuracy over a much higher volume of passes shows they dominate with the ball, and that possession control will be key to managing Everton’s counter-attacking threat through Barry.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Manchester United to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Everton head into this fixture in decent shape. Their last 30 days show three wins, two draws, and one loss from six matches, a 50% win rate that reflects a team playing with some confidence. Their most recent match ended 1-1 against Bournemouth, a result that continued a steady if unspectacular run. Before that, they beat Crystal Palace 2-0 and Newcastle 3-1, which were strong performances. The Preston cup win (4-0) inflates the goal numbers slightly, but there is real quality in this Everton side when they are at their best. In the current league campaign, they have scored three goals and conceded one across two games.
Manchester United’s recent form is harder to read. Over the last 30 days they have one win, two losses, and two draws from five matches, a 20% win rate that looks poor on paper. Their last match was a 5-2 win over Ipswich, which was an encouraging attacking display. Before that, they lost 0-2 to Hull and fell 2-4 to AC Milan in European competition. The Leeds draw (1-1) and the Paris Saint-Germain draw (1-1) fill out a five-match run that has been inconsistent but not without moments of quality. Carrick’s side have scored nine goals in their last five matches overall, and that attacking output is hard to ignore.
🚨Check out our dedicated Everton vs Manchester United stats page for more info.
The last four meetings between these sides tell a clear story. United have scored seven goals to Everton’s three, including a 4-0 away win at Goodison in the 2024/25 season. Everton did win the reverse fixture 1-0 that same season, and the 2024/25 home match ended 2-2, so this is not a completely one-sided rivalry. Still, United have the better head-to-head record across recent seasons.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Manchester United the Favourite
- Moneyline Everton 3.30 | Manchester United 2.12
- Draw 3.55
- Over/Under Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes | No
The odds across bookmakers are fairly consistent. Everton are priced around 3.30, which reflects their underdog status despite home advantage. United at roughly 2.10-2.17 are a reasonable price given their calendar-year win rate and attacking output. The draw at 3.50-3.69 is actually decent value if you believe the head-to-head trend of close results continues, but we think United’s current squad quality tips this in their favour. The Everton price does carry some appeal given Moyes’s tactical knowledge of United, but backing United to win at around 2.12 is the sharper call.
Possible Starting Lineups
Everton Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jordan Pickford
- DF: Michael Keane, James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite, Vitaliy Mykolenko
- MF: James Garner, Harrison Armstrong, Merlin Röhl, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
- FW: Thierno Barry, Brennan Johnson
Moyes is likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, which has been Everton’s go-to formation recently. Tarkowski and Branthwaite form a reliable defensive pairing, with Tarkowski having scored once across the last five matches. Garner and Armstrong provide the engine in midfield, with Armstrong contributing five interceptions and a steady passing game. Dewsbury-Hall drops into an attacking midfield role behind Barry, who leads the line. Barry’s four goals in three matches make him the focal point of everything Everton do going forward.
Manchester United Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Senne Lammens
- DF: Noussair Mazraoui, Leny Yoro, Ayden Heaven, Luke Shaw
- MF: Youri Tielemans, Andrey Santos, Bruno Fernandes
- FW: Bryan Mbeumo, Joshua Zirkzee, Amad Diallo
Carrick has settled into a 4-2-3-1 as well. Lammens has started the most games among United’s goalkeepers with 13 saves across four appearances. The back four picks itself, with Shaw and Mazraoui providing width. Tielemans and Santos sit deep and protect, allowing Fernandes to operate freely in the number ten role. He leads the team with three goals and two assists in recent games and is the player United’s attack is built around. Mbeumo has two goals and one assist across five matches and will be a constant threat down the right channel against Mykolenko.
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Everton. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a match where the narrative around Moyes versus his former club adds colour, but the numbers point in one direction. Manchester United carry more attacking threat, higher shot volume, and a superior calendar-year win rate. Their 93 shots across five matches compared to Everton’s 58 shows the difference in attacking intent.
Everton are not without weapons. Barry is in form, the home crowd at Hill Dickinson Stadium will back them, and United’s recent form outside of the Ipswich win has been patchy. The head-to-head record shows this fixture can go either way on any given day.
We predict a Manchester United win, with both teams scoring. The scoreline to consider is 1-2 or 1-3, with Fernandes and Mbeumo likely to be involved for United and Barry threatening at the other end. Over 2.5 goals is the accompanying market that makes sense given the attacking quality on both sides and United’s tendency to concede even in winning performances.
