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The Laver Cup 2026 starts on Friday, and the odds lean one way. The betting market has Team Europe as clear favorites to win back the trophy at London’s O2 Arena. Team World arrive as defending champions, but two late withdrawals have forced changes to their roster. The event runs from September 25-27, 2026, and Day 1 brings four matches, a rematch from Berlin and two Laver Cup debuts. Here’s how the market prices the whole event and each of Friday’s matches.
Laver Cup 2026 Winner Odds: Europe Priced as Clear Favorites
The outright market is firmly behind the Europeans. The main winner odds have Team Europe at 1.42 and Team World at 2.85. A separate futures market goes further, pricing Europe at 1.26x with a displayed probability of 80%, against 2.89x (26%) for Team World.
| Market | Team Europe | Team World |
|---|---|---|
| Outright winner odds | 1.42 | 2.85 |
| Implied win chance | ~70.4% | ~35.1% |
| Futures market price | 1.26x | 2.89x |
| Futures market probability | 80% | 26% |
The implied win chance is calculated by dividing 1 by the decimal odds. The two percentages add up to more than 100% because of the margin built into the prices. The two markets disagree on how big Europe’s edge is. At 1.42, the odds give the hosts roughly a seven-in-ten chance. The futures market puts it closer to four-in-five. Either way, Agassi’s side are underdogs despite winning last year.
Why the Laver Cup 2026 Odds Favor Team Europe
The main reason is star power at the top. Ruud joins Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Flavio Cobolli, Jakub Mensik and Rafael Jodar on a strong European roster. Few teams in this event’s history have had a top pair to match Alcaraz and Zverev.
Noah has also kept continuity. After narrowly missing out on the title in San Francisco last year, Noah kept the core of his side, with Jodar the only new name. Europe’s players already know each other on the bench, which matters in a format built around team chemistry.
History warns against being too confident, though. Team World have won three of the last four Laver Cup titles, and last year they beat Europe 15-9 at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Europe still lead the overall series. Their 13–11 win in Berlin in 2024 put them 5–2 up before Team World’s 2025 victory cut that lead.
Team World’s Late Roster Changes: Shelton and Paul Withdraw
Agassi’s original roster has changed, and that helps explain the odds. On 12 September, Tommy Paul withdrew injured and Francisco Cerúndolo replaced him. On 17 September, Ben Shelton pulled out and Brandon Nakashima took his place. Paul had been recovering from an elbow injury.
Losing Shelton, the US Open runner-up, is the bigger blow. He was one of Team World’s main threats on serve. Team World still have depth, with Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz and Alexander Bublik leading a side that can win on any given day. But the drop in top-end quality compared with Europe is clear, and the market has priced it in.
Laver Cup 2026 Rosters: Team Europe vs Team World
| Team Europe | Team World | |
|---|---|---|
| Captain | Yannick Noah | Andre Agassi |
| Vice Captain | Tim Henman | Patrick Rafter |
| Players | Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | Alex de Minaur (AUS) |
| Alexander Zverev (GER) | Taylor Fritz (USA) | |
| Flavio Cobolli (ITA) | Alexander Bublik (KAZ) | |
| Casper Ruud (NOR) | Learner Tien (USA) | |
| Jakub Mensik (CZE) | Francisco Cerundolo (ARG) | |
| Rafael Jodar (ESP) | Brandon Nakashima (USA) |
How the Laver Cup Scoring Format Shapes the Odds
The scoring system rewards late surges, and it’s the main reason an underdog is never out of it. Friday wins are worth one point, Saturday wins two and Sunday wins three, so no team can clinch the title before the final day. The first team to 13 points wins, and a tie after 12 matches leads to a deciding doubles match.
Every match is best of three sets, with any deciding set played as a 10-point tie-break. That makes upsets more likely. A single tiebreak can flip a match, and a Sunday comeback can wipe out a two-day deficit. Team World’s 2.85 price partly reflects that volatility.
The lineup order matters too. Captains submit Day 1 lineups in a blind draw. As hosts, Team Europe chose to pick first on Saturday and second on Sunday. Having the second pick on the final day, when each win is worth three points, lets Noah respond to Agassi’s matchups.
Laver Cup Day 1 Odds and Predictions: Match-by-Match
Play starts at 1 p.m. with Ruud vs Cerundolo, followed by Mensik vs Nakashima. The night session, not before 7 p.m., features Jodar vs Bublik and then Alcaraz/Mensik against Bublik/Fritz in doubles.
Ruud vs Cerundolo Odds: A Berlin Rematch Opens the Laver Cup
- Winner: Ruud 1.80 | Cerundolo 2.06
- Total games (20.5): Over 2.00 | Under 1.85
- Games handicap: Ruud -0.5 1.86 | Cerundolo +0.5 1.91
This is the closest opener in the market. It’s also personal. When they met in the 2024 Berlin opener, Cerundolo won 6-4, 6-4, and that remains Ruud’s only singles loss in Laver Cup play. Cerundolo leads their overall head-to-head 5-4, though Ruud won their most recent meeting, a 2025 Madrid semifinal, 6-4, 7-5.
There’s one concern for Ruud backers. He returns to competition after more than a month away. Cerundolo arrives in good form. He won the title in Buenos Aires earlier this year and later added his biggest trophy yet, an ATP 500 title on grass at Queen’s.
Prediction angle: Ruud’s price reflects his Laver Cup experience. This is his sixth straight appearance. But Cerundolo has beaten him on this stage before and has the better recent form. At 2.06, the Argentine is the value pick in a near coin-flip match. The Under 20.5 at 1.85 is also worth considering if one player takes control early.
Mensik vs Nakashima Odds: Big Servers Meet on Day 1
- Winner: Mensik 1.80 | Nakashima 2.08
- Total games (21.5): Over 2.05 | Under 1.91
- Games handicap: Mensik -0.5 2.00 | Nakashima +0.5 1.82
This matchup features two of the biggest servers on the ATP Tour. The odds make Mensik the favorite, but the recent evidence favors the American. Nakashima won their only meeting, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-4 in the Washington last 16 this summer, on his way to the semifinals.
Nakashima went 12-3 over the summer, reaching the Montreal final and the Cincinnati semis, and he’s at a career-high No. 16. Mensik has the Laver Cup experience. Last year in San Francisco, he beat Alex Michelsen in a match tiebreak and teamed with Alcaraz to win in doubles. He has plenty of pedigree too. The 21-year-old won the Miami Masters title last year.
Prediction angle: With two strong servers, this match should be decided by tiebreaks, and the line has the highest total of the day at 21.5. Nakashima at 2.08 looks generous given their head-to-head and his summer form. Mensik also has to play doubles later, so he may want a quick win. Nakashima +0.5 games at 1.82 is the safer option.
Jodar vs Bublik Odds: Two Laver Cup Debutants Meet at Night
- Winner: Jodar 1.45 | Bublik 2.90
- Total games (20.5): Over 2.05 | Under 1.87
- Games handicap: Jodar -2.5 1.92 | Bublik +2.5 1.85
This is the day’s most lopsided singles price, and it shows how quickly Rafael Jodar has risen. He has climbed 311 places to No. 14 in about a year, with his first tour-level title coming on clay in Marrakech earlier this year. The former University of Virginia player stands 6-foot-3 and plays an aggressive, powerful game.
Bublik is the day’s biggest wildcard. He broke into the Top 10 earlier this year and has shown he can beat almost anyone, including Jannik Sinner. They have never played each other, and both players are making their Laver Cup debuts.
Prediction angle: The market expects the young Spaniard to handle his debut in front of a big crowd. Jodar -2.5 games at 1.92 is a reasonable way to back him with better odds than 1.45 for the win. Bublik can be erratic, which is exactly why 2.90 will tempt risk-takers. He also plays again in the doubles later that night, so how much energy he saves for that match could affect how he plays here.
Alcaraz/Mensik vs Bublik/Fritz: Day 1 Doubles Preview
No odds were provided for Friday’s final match, but it could decide how Day 1 ends. Noah is going back to Mensik and Alcaraz, who opened last year’s doubles with a 7-6(7), 6-4 win over de Minaur and Michelsen in San Francisco. Fritz and Bublik are playing together for the first time. The European pair’s experience together is a real advantage, but with Mensik and Bublik both playing their second match of the day, fitness could matter as much as tactics.
Laver Cup Day 1 Betting Summary: All Odds at a Glance
| Match | Winner Odds | Total Games (O/U) | Games Handicap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruud vs Cerundolo | 1.80 / 2.06 | 20.5 — 2.00 / 1.85 | Ruud -0.5: 1.86 / 1.91 |
| Mensik vs Nakashima | 1.80 / 2.08 | 21.5 — 2.05 / 1.91 | Mensik -0.5: 2.00 / 1.82 |
| Jodar vs Bublik | 1.45 / 2.90 | 20.5 — 2.05 / 1.87 | Jodar -2.5: 1.92 / 1.85 |
| Team Europe vs Team World | 1.42 / 2.85 | — | — |
Key Laver Cup 2026 Betting Takeaways
- Team Europe are clear outright favorites at 1.42, but Team World’s 2.85 reflects a scoring system that makes comebacks possible.
- Europe are favored in all three Day 1 singles matches, which means an upset in any of them would shift the early momentum.
- Cerundolo (2.06) and Nakashima (2.08) both beat their Friday opponents in their most recent meetings, making them the day’s best underdog cases.
- Jodar is Friday’s strongest favorite at 1.45, and his -2.5 games handicap at 1.92 is a better-value way to back him.
- Deciding sets are played as 10-point match tiebreaks. Check how these count toward total games before betting on the totals.
Laver Cup 2026 FAQ
Who is favored to win the Laver Cup 2026?
Team Europe. Outright odds of 1.42 give them an implied chance of about 70%, while a separate futures market prices them at 80%. Team World are available at 2.85.
When and where is the Laver Cup 2026?
The ninth edition takes place at The O2 Arena in London from September 25-27, 2026, on indoor hard courts.
Who replaced Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul on Team World?
Brandon Nakashima replaced Shelton, and Francisco Cerundolo came in for Paul after he withdrew injured.
How does Laver Cup scoring work?
Wins are worth one point on Friday, two on Saturday and three on Sunday. The first team to 13 points wins the Laver Cup.
What are the best Laver Cup Day 1 bets?
Based on the current odds, Cerundolo at 2.06 and Nakashima at 2.08 are the strongest underdog options. For backing a favorite, Jodar -2.5 games at 1.92 offers better value than his straight win price.
Can Team World Defy the Laver Cup 2026 Odds Again?
The odds say Europe, but in this event the odds only tell part of the story. Friday’s single points are the lowest-value of the weekend, and the winner will be decided on Sunday, when each match is worth three. If Europe sweep the day sessions, the 1.42 will look cheap. If Cerundolo and Nakashima follow up on their recent wins, the pressure shifts to Noah’s side. With the rivalry growing and Los Angeles already confirmed as the 2027 host, London is set up for another close edition. For more Laver Cup predictions, odds updates and daily analysis as the weekend goes on, Tips.gg has you covered.