The top 16 teams in Europe this season continue their battle for UEFA Champions League glory. From now on, there’s almost no room for error: each club has just two matches per knockout round to prove why they deserve to advance to the quarter-finals. The TipsGG analytics team has prepared our traditional digest dedicated to the UEFA Champions League matches taking place on Tuesday, 10 March.
Galatasaray vs Liverpool
Galatasaray nearly squandered a three-goal aggregate lead against Juventus that the Istanbul side had worked so hard to build at home. Trailing by one goal at halftime in Turin, the Turks gained a numerical advantage when Juventus defender Lloyd Kelly was shown a straight red card. It seemed the comeback was over, but the Bianconeri showed unbreakable character. Down to ten men, the Italians scored twice to force extra time, where fatigue eventually took its toll – the visitors pushed through and advanced. After that away trip, the Turkish Süper Lig leaders rattled off three consecutive wins in domestic competitions. Right now, the Lions sit comfortably atop the national standings.
For Liverpool, the Champions League is currently the priority competition, as things aren’t going well in the domestic league, and the team risks missing out on next season’s UCL. The Reds finished third in the league phase, so they skipped the gruelling knockout play-off round. Instead, the Merseyside club focused on the fight for a top-four spot in the Premier League, where they suffered a shock loss to bottom-half side Wolverhampton in the most recent round. They got their revenge against the Wolves just three days later in the FA Cup: Arne Slot’s men corrected their mistakes and advanced to the quarter-finals.
The two sides already met in this season’s league phase – Galatasaray claimed a narrow 1-0 victory.
Match bet: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals – yes (odds 1.82)
The hosts will try to play aggressively to build an advantage before the trip to Anfield. I expect a high-scoring game with both teams exchanging goals.
Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham
A match at the Wanda Metropolitano where bookmakers see a clear favourite. Atlético will host an injury-ravaged Tottenham side arriving in Madrid on the back of a five-game losing streak.
The Mattress Makers are traditionally far more confident at home. This season they’ve suffered just two rather surprising defeats there – 1-2 to Bodø/Glimt and 0-1 to Real Betis. In La Liga, the team sits third, level on points with Villarreal and 11 points clear of fifth-placed Betis. So European football’s top competition next season already looks virtually guaranteed for the Madrid side.
In their last ten Champions League matches, only one game involving the Colchoneros saw goals from just one team. That’s quite uncharacteristic of the pragmatic style of the Indians, yet recently Atlético matches have often been high-scoring: 5, 3, 1, 5 and 6 goals in their most recent outings.
The arrival of Igor Tudor hasn’t yet produced a noticeable impact – Tottenham’s losing run has reached five matches, three of them under the Croatian coach. In the Premier League, things look grim for the Spurs – just 16th place, only one point above the highest relegation spot. It’s worth recalling that last season, after finishing 17th, the Londoners still reached the Champions League by winning the Europa League. In the current reality, a repeat of that scenario looks highly unlikely.
Unlike their opponents, Tottenham comfortably progressed through the previous European knockout round and finished fourth in their group to reach the last 16. Interestingly, the Spurs had the second-best defence among all teams that directly qualified for the round of 16 – conceding just seven goals. At the same time, both teams scoring was rare in Tottenham matches – only twice in eight games. Away from home, the team managed just one win, two draws and one defeat. That said, those results came under a different manager who is the complete opposite of Tudor in style.
Match bet: Atlético to win & both teams to score – yes (odds 3.02) Alternative bet: Total yellow cards over 4 (odds 1.86)
Despite the stats, both teams have recently been playing fairly open football. So in Madrid, we can expect a high-scoring encounter where home advantage could prove decisive for Atlético. Also, given the nature of both sides’ play, it’s worth keeping an eye on a potentially high number of yellow cards.
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
A clash that could deliver a thrilling scenario despite the apparent gap in class. Two sides that rely on intense pressing, but achieve it in completely different ways.
Atalanta is currently struggling with a tough schedule, winless in their last three games, and dealing with several absences. Still, the hosts have already shown they can exploit opponents’ weaknesses brilliantly, especially in front of their own fans. They’ll happily cede possession and then rip the game open on the counter.
Bayern don’t enjoy facing teams like this – their defence struggles not only with set pieces but often buckles under pressure. If they don’t get a lead by halftime, the favourites could face problems again.
Match bet: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score (odds 1.72)
So the game is more likely to deliver goals. Bayern will try to dominate, but we’ll leave the winner open and go for the goals total.
Newcastle vs Barcelona
The two ties against Qarabağ gave fans a real treat. Although the first leg in Azerbaijan (6-1 to the English side) effectively settled the tie, at St James’ Park the teams produced another goal-fest, ending in a 3-2 home win. In the Premier League, the Magpies are all over the place: dropping points at home to Everton one day, then grinding out a win with ten men against Manchester United (2-1) the next. Given how tight the table is, it’s fair to say the Black-and-Whites have virtually lost their chance of European qualification via the league. With Manchester City knocking them out of the FA Cup as well, their only route to next season’s Champions League is winning the current competition.
Barcelona capitalised on Real Madrid’s slip-ups and reclaimed top spot in La Liga with a four-point lead. The atmosphere at Camp Nou was electric during the Copa del Rey return leg against Atlético, where the Catalans fell just one goal short of another football miracle. It’s been eleven years since Barça’s last Champions League triumph; now they’re in the easier half of the bracket, so the path to the final looks entirely realistic.
The sides already met in the league phase – Barcelona managed a 2-1 win in England.
Match bet: Newcastle double chance (1X) & under 4.5 goals (odds 2.1)
I’m not convinced by the visitors’ recent performances: despite regular wins, they’re coming with enormous difficulty. The Spaniards are favourites of the tie, but in my view, they’ll settle the qualification in the home leg.