Levi Rothermund
Ararat-Armenia host Celje at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan on 4 August, with a place in the UEFA Champions League play-off round on the line. The Armenian side carries genuine momentum into this tie, winning three of their last five matches. Celje, a Slovenian outfit ranked far above their hosts in the global club standings, arrive in an unusual state: seven draws from their last seven games, scoring but never pulling clear. Mario Kvesić is the name to watch for Celje, the midfielder scoring four goals in just two recent appearances. For Ararat-Armenia, Karen Muradyan has been quietly influential in midfield, contributing an assist across four consecutive matches and providing the creative link between defense and attack.
A hot stat worth flagging: Ararat-Armenia scored seven goals across their last five matches compared to Celje’s four, and they managed 31 total shots to Celje’s 17. The Armenian side’s attacking output at home has been notably sharp despite playing lower-ranked opposition, and that volume of attempts is a real factor here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27 – Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Prediction
Bookmakers price Celje as the slight favourite despite playing away in Yerevan, which tells you something about the gap in European pedigree. But the odds are genuinely tight, and there is a real case for backing the hosts or the draw here.
Celje’s seven-draw streak is one of the more striking streaks you’ll see going into a European qualifier. They keep games level, they don’t lose, but they also don’t win. Ararat-Armenia, by contrast, have been more decisive: three wins and two losses in their last five, with a 4-3 win over Gandzasar most recently. That kind of open, high-scoring game suggests they are willing to attack. Playing at home in a European tie, with the crowd behind them, they have every reason to push forward.
Ararat-Armenia average considerably more shots per game than Celje based on recent data, and their 13 corners to Celje’s 10 across five matches suggests they generate attacking pressure consistently. Celje pick up fewer yellow cards (five to Ararat’s ten), which points to a more disciplined, structured side that sits deep and absorbs pressure before transitioning. Coach Vítor Campelos has built a team that is hard to beat, not one that dominates. That style suits a draw in the first leg, but Ararat-Armenia’s home energy may disrupt that plan.
We think the first leg finishes with both teams scoring, with the match staying tight. A draw or a narrow Ararat-Armenia win are the most likely outcomes based on current form trajectories.
- Best bet: Draw or Ararat-Armenia win (double chance)
- Both teams to score: Yes
- Under 2.5 goals as a safer secondary option given Celje’s draw-heavy run
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ararat-Armenia to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Ararat-Armenia have been one of the more active sides in the Armenian Premier Liga calendar, playing 28 matches this year with 16 wins and a 57% winrate. Their last five results show a pattern of attacking intent: they beat Gandzasar 4-3 in a chaotic finish, beat Shamrock Rovers 2-0 in what was likely a controlled performance, and then lost the second leg against Shamrock 1-2. They also split their two-legged tie against Riga FC, winning 2-0 and then losing 2-3. Coach Tulipa has a side that can produce goals but is vulnerable when opponents press the game. The Gandzasar result in particular, a 4-3 win over a side ranked lower, shows defensive fragility that Celje’s attackers may look to exploit.
Celje come into this tie without a win in seven matches, but that record is entirely composed of draws. Their last five results include a 1-1 with Maribor, a 1-1 and a 3-3 with Egnatia, a 2-2 with Mura, and a 1-1 with Istra 1961. That 3-3 against Egnatia stands out: Celje scored three goals and still couldn’t win. Mario Kvesić’s four goals in two recent matches suggest the attacking talent is present, but the team structure under Vítor Campelos seems to prioritize balance over aggression. Seven draws in a row is not a coincidence. It reflects a deliberate approach that may serve them well over two legs.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides meet for the first time in this UEFA Champions League qualifying tie. There is no prior head-to-head history to draw from, which makes the first leg in Yerevan even more unpredictable.
| Statistic | Ararat-Armenia | Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 4 |
| Total shots | 31 | 17 |
| Yellow cards | 10 | 5 |
| Corner kicks | 13 | 10 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Ararat-Armenia vs Celje stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Celje the Favourite
- Moneyline Ararat-Armenia 2.85 | Celje 2.54
- Draw 3.22
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The market makes Celje a modest favourite at around 2.54, with Ararat-Armenia priced at 2.85. Given that Ararat are playing at home and have been more decisive in recent results, those odds represent decent value on the hosts. The draw at 3.22 is also worth considering given Celje’s seven-draw run, and honestly a draw would not surprise anyone watching this tie. Pinnacle’s line of 2.63/3.11/2.61 is the most efficient in the market and suggests the gap between the two sides is minimal.
Ararat-Armenia. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Ararat-Armenia Possible Starting Eleven
With only Karen Muradyan confirmed across multiple recent matches in the available data, the full lineup for Ararat-Armenia cannot be projected with confidence. Muradyan lines up in midfield and has been a consistent presence across four matches, logging 360 minutes and contributing an assist. Coach Tulipa has favored a 3-5-2 shape in recent games, which gives the team width through wing-backs and a compact defensive structure.
Celje Possible Starting Eleven
Vítor Campelos has leaned on a 3-4-3 formation, and based on recent appearance data, the likely starters include two goalkeepers in rotation with Zan Luk Leban logging more minutes. Leonardo Koutris and Darko Hrka have each played 210 minutes across two matches, making them near-certainties to start. Mario Kvesić is the most dangerous player in this squad and will almost certainly feature centrally in midfield. Yaya Dukuly leads the forward line with 139 minutes played, and A. Kučys adds a goal threat from the front.
- GK: Zan Luk Leban
- DF: Leonardo Koutris, Artemijus Tutyskinas, Alpha Richard Diounkou, Pijus Sirvys
- MF: Darko Hrka, Mario Kvesić, Milot Avdyli, Mark Zabukovnik
- FW: Yaya Dukuly, A. Kučys
Kvesić is the player Ararat-Armenia’s defense must account for. Four goals in two games is a serious return, and if Celje give him space in the half-spaces inside a 3-4-3, he will find it. Koutris provides width and attacking overlap from the left side, which adds another dimension to Campelos’s system.
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Celje. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a genuinely open first leg. Ararat-Armenia have the home advantage and the better attacking output across recent matches, posting 31 shots and seven goals to Celje’s 17 shots and four goals in their respective last five games. Celje’s draw streak is remarkable but it also means they haven’t won in seven, which is a concern heading into a tie where they need to perform away from home.
We think both teams score, the game stays tight, and the first leg ends 1-1 or 2-1 to either side. Ararat-Armenia’s high foul count (ten yellow cards in five matches) suggests they play aggressively and with intensity, which suits a home European night. Celje’s discipline and structure will keep them in the game, but Kvesić needs to be the difference-maker if they are to take a lead back to Slovenia.
Our prediction for this match is a draw, with both teams scoring. The double chance on Ararat-Armenia or draw at combined odds around 1.50 to 1.60 is the safest play. For those looking for more value, Ararat-Armenia to win at 2.85 is genuinely interesting given the home context and their superior shot volume.
