The race for the 2025 Ballon d’Or is shaping up to be a historic showdown. With no major international tournaments this year, the spotlight falls squarely on club achievements—and few players have shone brighter than Ousmane Dembélé of PSG and Barcelona’s teenage sensation Lamine Yamal. According to leading bookmaker Spinbetter, Dembélé holds the edge, but July’s FIFA Club World Cup in the USA could dramatically change everything.
By the way. the 69th edition of the Ballon d’Or 2025 ceremony will be held on September 22th in Paris at the Théâtre du Châtelet.
Current Ballon d’Or 2025 Odds (via Spinbetter)
| Player | Club | Odd | Probability of winning (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | PSG | 1.5 | 66.7% |
| Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | 2.6 | 38.5% |
| Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 15 | 6.7% |
| Raphinha | Barcelona | 15 | 6.7% |
| Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 25 | 4.0% |
| Pedri | Barcelona | 25 | 4.0% |
| Désiré Doué | PSG | 25 | 4.0% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | Napoli | 30 | 3.3% |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | PSG | 40 | 2.5% |
| Achraf Hakimi | PSG | 65 | 1.5% |
Dembélé – The Leading Favorite
At 1.5 odds, Ousmane Dembélé sits atop the betting charts. His 2024/25 campaign has been nothing short of sensational—21 Ligue 1 goals combined with 14 Champions League goal involvements (8 goals, 6 assists). But it was the Champions League final masterclass—where PSG thrashed Inter 5-0 and Dembélé registered two assists—that cemented his status.
PSG’s treble-winning season (Champions League, Ligue 1, Coupe de France) provides a solid foundation. Historically, such collective achievements are crucial in Ballon d’Or voting—and Dembélé’s central role boosts his credentials significantly.
Lamine Yamal – The Young Challenger
Lamine Yamal is a close second with odds of 2.6. The 18-year-old has dazzled fans with his creativity and maturity well beyond his years. His key role in Barcelona’s domestic treble and consistent performances for Spain in the Nations League elevate his claim.
Yamal could become the youngest Ballon d’Or winner in history, breaking Ronaldo Nazário’s 1997 record. But the absence of a Champions League title and a Nations League final loss to Portugal may hinder his charge when the final votes are cast.
Impact of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup
Running from June 14 to July 13 in the USA, the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup introduces a crucial factor into the Ballon d’Or race. With a 32-team format, a billion-dollar prize pool, and immense global exposure, the tournament serves as the ultimate proving ground for elite players. A victory for Barcelona’s Yamal or PSG’s Dembélé could heavily influence the award’s outcome, while an unexpected champion—like Benfica—might shake up the competition and bring new contenders into the spotlight. The tournament’s reach ensures that every dribble, goal, and assist is magnified, turning the event into a stage where football’s biggest stars make their final statements before the prestigious vote.
Individual vs. Team Glory
Individual excellence and team accomplishments are balanced in the Ballon d’Or voting. While Dembélé’s achievements are supported by awards, Yamal’s case mostly depends on the popularity and intellect of young people.
But history demonstrates that when up against Champions League or World Cup champions, individual genius frequently falls short. In the absence of European or Club World Cup championships, even exceptional statistics could not be sufficient.
Dembélé Takes the Lead, But It’s Not Over
At the moment, Ousmane Dembélé satisfies all requirements: influence, form, and prizes. However, Lamine Yamal is not far behind and, with a solid Club World Cup performance, may still pull off a historic upset.
The 2025 Ballon d’Or is about making an impression on the grandest platforms, not just about numbers. The world will be observing—and wagering—on who takes advantage of their opportunity as July draws near.