March 2026 will be the key month of the year for 16 national teams. Over the course of one week, the participants of the UEFA play-offs for the 2026 World Cup will determine the four lucky teams that will compete at the main football tournament of the four-year cycle this summer. The TipsGG analytics team has prepared predictions for you on the most interesting semi-final matches.
Turkey vs Romania
The Turkish national team finished second in their group with Spain, Georgia and Bulgaria, finishing 10 points clear of their closest rivals. Against the clear favourites – Spain – the “Crescent Stars” showed mixed results: they suffered a heavy home defeat (0:6), but in the final group game in Seville, where first place was at stake, the Turks put up a real fight (2:2). A significant advantage for them is the experience of head coach Vincenzo Montella, with whom the team has already completed the Euro 2024 cycle and reached the quarter-finals.
Romania, in turn, finished third in the group with Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus and San Marino. This did not allow the team to qualify for the play-offs via the group stage, but the “Tricolours” found another path through the Nations League, where they topped League C by winning all 6 matches. The Romanian coach is the highly experienced Mircea Lucescu – one of the most decorated managers in history, who won the majority of his trophies in Ukraine.
Prediction: Turkey Handicap (−1) (odds 1.65)
Turkey have the advantage of home ground and consistent performances throughout the entire qualifying cycle, while their players hold leading roles in top European leagues. I believe the hosts should win confidently.
Italy vs Northern Ireland
Italy approach the match against Northern Ireland with a strong desire to shake off the tag of underachievers after missing the 2018 World Cup in Russia and the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Everyone remembers Sweden, everyone remembers what happened after North Macedonia. By all metrics, the Italians finished behind Norway for first place in the group, but Gennaro Gattuso’s team must show their level, even with squad problems. There can be no excuses.
Northern Ireland have never stood out on the overall stage, but recently the team has been noted for their solid defensive play. They don’t create much themselves, but they also don’t let opponents run riot. Once before, they prevented the Italian national team from finishing top of their group. Will history repeat itself?
Bet on the match: Italy Individual Total Goals Over 1.5 (odds 1.43) Alternative bet: Italy Win and Total Under 3.5 (odds 1.97)
I assume that the pressure of responsibility will still play its role for Italy. The team in Bergamo will show class and reach the final.
Poland vs Albania
The Polish national team finished second in the group stage, behind the Netherlands. Although both head-to-head matches between these teams ended in draws (1:1 twice), the slip-up in the away game against Finland (1:2) proved costly. The coach of the “Eagles” is Jan Urban, for whom this qualifying cycle is the first at the helm of the national team. Previously, the specialist worked in the Polish Ekstraklasa, where he won the championship with Legia Warsaw.
The Albanians secured second place in their group after a fierce battle with Serbia, finishing only behind England, who dominated their opponents in style. The coach of the Albanian national team since 2023 is the Brazilian Sylvinho. In the group stage, the team was noted for their pragmatic style: the average number of goals in matches involving Albania was only 1.5 per game.
Prediction: Poland Double Chance (1X) and Total Goals Under 2.5 (odds 1.83)
I think this will be a game of endurance that will most likely be decided by a single moment; a goalless scenario is possible. For me, the Polish national team is a slight favourite.
Slovakia vs Kosovo
The play-off semi-final between Slovakia and Kosovo promises to be tense and evenly matched. The Slovaks had a strong group stage and fought until the last round for first place, losing only to Germany in the decisive match. At home, they look particularly confident: three wins in three qualifying matches without conceding a single goal and a long unbeaten run. However, there are questions regarding the squad: Škriniar and Lobotka are set to return, but their form after injuries is far from optimal.
Kosovo also surprised in their group, losing only once throughout the entire qualifying campaign and the whole of 2025, demonstrating extremely reliable defensive play. However, they lack creativity in attack, which makes their chances of progressing rather modest.
Bet on the match: Total Corners Over 8.5 (odds 1.69)
Slovakia will clearly control the game more, trying to use their home advantage, but due to Kosovo’s organisation in defence, an easy win for the hosts is not to be expected. However, considering that the home team will be attacking, we’ll take the corners.
Ukraine vs Sweden
After a poor start to the qualifying cycle, the Ukrainian national team managed to get back into the fight for the World Cup. The key results were the head-to-head victories over Iceland (2:0 and 5:3). Although there was no chance of first place in the group due to France’s dominance, second position for the “Yellow-Blue” is a satisfactory result. Now the main mission is to reach the final stage via the play-offs, which has recently been an extremely difficult task for the “Cossacks”. The team is led by Serhiy Rebrov, and this is a crucial moment in his managerial career.
The Swedish national team completely failed their qualifying campaign, finishing bottom of the group with Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia. During the campaign, the “Tre Kronor” changed their coach – the English specialist Graham Potter came to the rescue. A lifeline for the team was the Nations League, where back in 2024 the Swedes secured first place in League C.
Prediction: Ukraine to qualify for the next round (odds 2.08)
Sweden have outstanding individual players, but as a team they are not yet showing the required quality. In this regard, the Ukrainians look more convincing, and the only problem may be the absence of key defenders. I believe the nominal hosts should progress further.
Czechia vs Republic of Ireland
The Czechs, to be honest, did not impress in the group stage of the qualifying cycle. Croatia very decisively knocked the Czechs out of the fight for first place, and second could unexpectedly have gone to the Faroe Islands if they had been a bit sharper. Jaroslav Kestl continues to work with Ivan Hašek’s schemes, so nothing extraordinary should be expected from the hosts.
The Republic of Ireland deservedly finished second in their group, and did so in style. Their main rival, Hungary, failed to beat the “Green Army” even once, while the Irish also dismantled Portugal (2:0) in one of the matchdays. Once again, maximum responsibility will fall on the shoulders and feet of Troy Parrott, who scored all the team’s goals in the last two matches.
Bet on the match: Both Teams To Score (odds 1.86)
The match is expected to be very tense. The hosts have the home advantage, while the in-form Irish, judging by their recent games, are capable of blowing anyone away if they catch the right wave.
Denmark vs North Macedonia
The final important stage before the main tournament this summer. A period when some teams no longer have the right to make mistakes. The Danish national team will try to redeem themselves for the failure in November, when they could have completely avoided the play-offs, but played the final qualifying matches poorly. Now everything is in their hands – the support of the home crowd, no problems with motivation, and not many squad issues. Yes, the defence is not in optimal condition, but the Danes know how to play actively and will clearly apply pressure.
North Macedonia will try to cope with this pressure. And it really won’t be easy, especially considering their results against favourites away from home. They now have a new coach for whom this will be a debut, and there are difficulties with the squad as well. The visitors will need to produce a surprise, but they are unlikely to have enough resources for it.
Bet on the match: Denmark Win and Total Goals Over 1.5 (odds 1.51)
I don’t expect any sensation. Denmark should get the job done.